Trumps NAFTA strategy

[chuckChuck]

The NAFTA Renegotiation:
What if the US Walks Away?

From The CD Howe Institute
https://www.cdhowe.org/sites/default/files/attachments/research_papers/mixed/Working%20Paper%201128%20web.pdf


"The most affected agricultural sector is beef.
Exports drop by more than $500 million (although
this might vary depending on how Canadian
exporters fare under US MFN beef quotas). While
Canadian beef producers would capture some of the
Canadian domestic market share left by declining
NAFTA imports, the modelling results suggest
that total sales would still fall appreciably. “Other
agricultural products”, which include a variety
of other crops, fare similarly, with the decline in
domestic demand compounding an overall decline
in exports. Dairy also experiences a fairly significant
decline in sales, entirely due to lower domestic
demand."

[chuckChuck]

Here is a plan. Offer the US that they can export 3x as much dairy products to Canada tariff free in exchange for dropping softwood lumber tariffs. That would not be standing up for Canada according to people like Chuck, which is why there won't be a deal. That, however, is how adults negotiate.

What would be the economic impact on the dairy and newsprint sectors and how do we know that would be a good deal? Unless you have the numbers then it is hard to decide. That is why we have professional negotiators who understand the issues.

[bucket]

I don't know but paying a buck for 4 liters of milk might be OK. ..

It's funny we pay world prices of everything and then factor in our dollar value it's insane but when the prices in the states are considerably lower for similar products .....that never factors into the world price?


Why is that?

[ajl]

I agree, we need professional negotiators.

[macdon02]

Whether we have a written agreement or not trade will still happen. To assume the border will slam shut is ridiculous. Will things continue as is no. There's way too much fear getting sold that life will end. We weren't even the target that Trump the had gun on until Ottawa jumped up and said look at me. This will boil down to trade on items that we have that they don't. If it can be made in USA that's where they'll source it.

[bucket]

Which explains why Brandt is getting a foothold in the states....and is an easy price increase as well for their products....

We have fools running this country.

[macdon02]

Potash will move south and phosphate north. Car parts..... Not so much

[errolanderson]

Even if Trump gives written 6-month notice to abandon NAFTA, it may not happen. Loss of NAFTA would be a big hit to the American Midwest (Trump's voter heartland) . . . and mid-terms are coming up in November. U.S. companies would be hit by increased costs. This has to get through Congress . . . .

More talk-the-talk, then walk-the-walk (IMO) . . . .

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I maintain that the NAFTA issue is more about telling the masses what they want to hear, than any practical application. Who honestly believes that a socialist overtaxed, and over regulated could sparsely populated country is taking jobs away from the US? But it plays well with his base, and will continue to until the next election.

[ajl]

I don't understand why the end of NAFTA would hurt the US midwest. Generally the US benefits from trade restriction and they know it. I know a lot of processed food in imported from the US midwest into Canada but other than car parts what else do they export here? Car parts would still move like today because it is largely an exchange trade anyways. Linnamar has production facilities in the US already (make the Harvestec corn head) so they can move MacDon down there.

[farming101]

I don't understand why the end of NAFTA would hurt the US midwest. Generally the US benefits from trade restriction and they know it. I know a lot of processed food in imported from the US midwest into Canada but other than car parts what else do they export here? Car parts would still move like today because it is largely an exchange trade anyways. Linnamar has production facilities in the US already (make the Harvestec corn head) so they can move MacDon down there.

John Deere, CNH, Agco, Monsanto are a few familiar names from the midwest that do a little business in Canada

[Klause]

John Deere, CNH, Agco, Monsanto are a few familiar names from the midwest that do a little business in Canada

Deere and agco wouldn't give a shit. Neither would Monsanto.


Monsanto has Canadian headquarters. So does cnh in Saskatoon.


Deere and agco charge you 5% more for duties and away you go.

[DaneG]

US exports to NAFTA countries

https://www.fb.org/market-intel/nafta-by-commodity-and-by-state-in-2016?utm_source=Market+Intel+Subscribers&utm_campa ign=0c7e3413cd-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_01_11&utm_medium=email&utm_ter m=0_8791233023-0c7e3413cd-260808397

[burnt]

I agree, we need professional negotiators.

Oh don't worry, we have sent our best negotiators - our very best SJW's! Bargaining for non-gender labeled bathrooms...

Sock boy and tear-lady, surely they are more than qualified to talk business with a group of business sharks...

We're screwed and it's going to hurt a lot more than is advertised. China objected to having another nation tamper with their sovereignty and the US does too. How strange.

That's an unpopular approach when you're a superpower, let alone a relative nobody.


http://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-ivison-u-s-cites-trudeaus-progressive-trade-agenda-as-barrier-to-progress-on-nafta#comments-area http://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-ivison-u-s-cites-trudeaus-progressive-trade-agenda-as-barrier-to-progress-on-nafta#comments-area