Trumps NAFTA strategy

[macdon02]

The softwood deal is over stumpage fees, I don't know the exact details but it's due to most lumber in Canada coming off crown lands and most US coming off private. Our govt doesn't charge as much for tree removal as private citizens so in the eyes of the US it's a subsidy. Plus knock off the currency difference which causes most trade irritants and that's the issues. They are protecting made in USA industry because that's the hand that feeds them.

[macdon02]

What I find pathetic is the Canadian govt sees more mileage in a wto complaint over a dying industry (paper) then standing up to India over food. But after watching the pipeline show I'm starting to wonder if exports are even a priority? You can't pay the bills by saving the world. I think Brett Wilson had it right yesterday on BNN

[chuckChuck]

Trump is not a free trader. Protectionism has returned. The US as always acted in its own self interest on trade. That is why they want to get rid of the NAFTA dispute resolution mechanism, if not all of NAFTA.

I am sure when various ag commodity groups in the US convince Trump to impose duties on Canadian imports and our prices fall it will all be Trudeaus fault. LOL

Some of you need to take off your hyper partisan, pro Trump blinders and start standing up for Canada!

[bucket]

Sadly we elect people to represent Canada but instead of having critical thinking skills we have self absorbed people looking after their own interests on every political stripe. ...

[ajl]

Here is a plan. Offer the US that they can export 3x as much dairy products to Canada tariff free in exchange for dropping softwood lumber tariffs. That would not be standing up for Canada according to people like Chuck, which is why there won't be a deal. That, however, is how adults negotiate.

[chuckChuck]

The NAFTA Renegotiation:
What if the US Walks Away?

From The CD Howe Institute
https://www.cdhowe.org/sites/default/files/attachments/research_papers/mixed/Working%20Paper%201128%20web.pdf


"The most affected agricultural sector is beef.
Exports drop by more than $500 million (although
this might vary depending on how Canadian
exporters fare under US MFN beef quotas). While
Canadian beef producers would capture some of the
Canadian domestic market share left by declining
NAFTA imports, the modelling results suggest
that total sales would still fall appreciably. “Other
agricultural products”, which include a variety
of other crops, fare similarly, with the decline in
domestic demand compounding an overall decline
in exports. Dairy also experiences a fairly significant
decline in sales, entirely due to lower domestic
demand."

[chuckChuck]

Here is a plan. Offer the US that they can export 3x as much dairy products to Canada tariff free in exchange for dropping softwood lumber tariffs. That would not be standing up for Canada according to people like Chuck, which is why there won't be a deal. That, however, is how adults negotiate.

What would be the economic impact on the dairy and newsprint sectors and how do we know that would be a good deal? Unless you have the numbers then it is hard to decide. That is why we have professional negotiators who understand the issues.

[bucket]

I don't know but paying a buck for 4 liters of milk might be OK. ..

It's funny we pay world prices of everything and then factor in our dollar value it's insane but when the prices in the states are considerably lower for similar products .....that never factors into the world price?


Why is that?

[ajl]

I agree, we need professional negotiators.

[macdon02]

Whether we have a written agreement or not trade will still happen. To assume the border will slam shut is ridiculous. Will things continue as is no. There's way too much fear getting sold that life will end. We weren't even the target that Trump the had gun on until Ottawa jumped up and said look at me. This will boil down to trade on items that we have that they don't. If it can be made in USA that's where they'll source it.