Funny thing we keep going over the numbers and over the numbers and its actually sad. To make money in 2018 with the prices were getting and forward pricing you almost actually need 40 bushel wheat and 35 canola to pay all the bills.
Now before we were looking at the 800 peas. Could get 6.50 for fall now. So basically a 45 bushel crop.
Barley if it doesn't go malt or even if it goes malt will be in the 3.75 to 4.50 range or just above. You need 65 malt or 77 feed to cover costs.
Oats im worried will be wall to wall because a cheap crop to grow and if you get the magic 100 its at least pays the bills. Costs way less to grow.
We have no luck with flax or mustard or chickpea or lentils so not even doing math on them.
So what seems to work.
Well if its good moisture seeding won't be a problem, but if its piss showers and windy the rows could dry out by time you get to the end of the mile strip. Piss poor germination and then once its sucks tough to get it back. No second chances in Canada.
Every one has to admit it wasn't varieties or superior breeding and fert and fungicides etc that grew last years crop. it was years of rain and a cooler nights hot days summer. Roots grew down and produced a crop for some great tot excellent for others great to good to ok to poor.
What handles drought better.
Wheat i guess is a good one the roots go down if something to go down to.
Canola if it gets established maybe with a few lucky rains could do ok.
Peas and lentils and soy need rain to start.
Oats is later seeded maybe weather pattern changes.
Barley needs moisture, we had one year back in the 80s where it started grew ok then at heading hit a wall of heat and never really did push the head out of the boot. Yea not a big yielder.
Yes things could change but the map shows snow run off to date. Not a real good feeling even if its still early.
The NE and above the valley has snow or has had moisture since fall, but that sure is a huge area of dry.
So with 90 days till seeding starts on our farm it looks like, Half canola and half wheat for best chance at a profit. Swing acres are 500 barley and 500 peas. These will be cleaned and we won't make that decision till end of April or even up to go date.
This is serious and should be discussed its not a great start and we need a lot of moisture to replenish what was used last summer. One snow dump won't get it back and if nothing happens till june i think some areas are done for 2018.
Its still early but these maps suck.
What are others thinking or planning. Will some SMF or Chem Fallow or will guys seed for Crop insurance hoping it starts to grow so its established and then it can die.
Now before we were looking at the 800 peas. Could get 6.50 for fall now. So basically a 45 bushel crop.
Barley if it doesn't go malt or even if it goes malt will be in the 3.75 to 4.50 range or just above. You need 65 malt or 77 feed to cover costs.
Oats im worried will be wall to wall because a cheap crop to grow and if you get the magic 100 its at least pays the bills. Costs way less to grow.
We have no luck with flax or mustard or chickpea or lentils so not even doing math on them.
So what seems to work.
Well if its good moisture seeding won't be a problem, but if its piss showers and windy the rows could dry out by time you get to the end of the mile strip. Piss poor germination and then once its sucks tough to get it back. No second chances in Canada.
Every one has to admit it wasn't varieties or superior breeding and fert and fungicides etc that grew last years crop. it was years of rain and a cooler nights hot days summer. Roots grew down and produced a crop for some great tot excellent for others great to good to ok to poor.
What handles drought better.
Wheat i guess is a good one the roots go down if something to go down to.
Canola if it gets established maybe with a few lucky rains could do ok.
Peas and lentils and soy need rain to start.
Oats is later seeded maybe weather pattern changes.
Barley needs moisture, we had one year back in the 80s where it started grew ok then at heading hit a wall of heat and never really did push the head out of the boot. Yea not a big yielder.
Yes things could change but the map shows snow run off to date. Not a real good feeling even if its still early.
The NE and above the valley has snow or has had moisture since fall, but that sure is a huge area of dry.
So with 90 days till seeding starts on our farm it looks like, Half canola and half wheat for best chance at a profit. Swing acres are 500 barley and 500 peas. These will be cleaned and we won't make that decision till end of April or even up to go date.
This is serious and should be discussed its not a great start and we need a lot of moisture to replenish what was used last summer. One snow dump won't get it back and if nothing happens till june i think some areas are done for 2018.
Its still early but these maps suck.
What are others thinking or planning. Will some SMF or Chem Fallow or will guys seed for Crop insurance hoping it starts to grow so its established and then it can die.
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