Flipping thru the Classifieds

[Klause]

Klause you are absolutely correct and i agree that lentil belt is way way over valued. That area will see a big correction i think but even there half the land wont change hands. High leveraged operations in those areas will fail.

On our farm we store grain to pick up the carry. Other farms deliver off the combine.

Land just north of me is $500,000 a quarter. 90bpa barley 50 wheat 50 canola.


Same as lentil belt but lower potential.


And I realize MB can move bushels. Sask can't. Wheat is 3 months out. I'm trucking Sept malt barley contracts for guys.


Can't even move pea contracts off the combine that you sign 12 months in advance.


South of #16 in MB producers are blessed with a near-USA system... The rest of the prairies especially Sask isn't.


There's a pile of farm's that went from zero to 20,000- 100,000 acres in Sask that never happened in Manitoba either.


Need to understand the bigger picture

[bgmb]

Klause. By the way tou dont have to go back to the 80s to find lots of hurt in farming. Lots on here survived 5 dollar canola and frozen 2$ feed wheat in the early 2000s Followed by flooding. we were happy to gross 300/ac on a good year. Land prices maybe sofened 20 percent from better years previously.

If i were you i would quit looking abroad for greener pastures, they dont exist. Best thing you can do if you think farming is going to crash is have short term land leases and set some cash aside to buy land once it does.


Best advice I have for you is forget about wild predictions and political issues Focus on what you can control look out for you and your family amd forage ahead

[farmaholic]

Like...

[bgmb]

Land just north of me is $500,000 a quarter. 90bpa barley 50 wheat 50 canola.


Same as lentil belt but lower potential.


And I realize MB can move bushels. Sask can't. Wheat is 3 months out. I'm trucking Sept malt barley contracts for guys.


Can't even move pea contracts off the combine that you sign 12 months in advance.


South of #16 in MB producers are blessed with a near-USA system... The rest of the prairies especially Sask isn't.


There's a pile of farm's that went from zero to 20,000- 100,000 acres in Sask that never happened in Manitoba either.


Need to understand the bigger picture

I north east sask is badly landlocked. Mb is better for sure. Yes there are many new btos in sask But I just dont think that is a really high. Percentage of land plus lots of them are probably in good financial shape and some will make deals to lower rent or erase debt.

[Klause]

I north east sask is badly landlocked. Mb is better for sure. Yes there are many new btos in sask But I just dont think that is a really high. Percentage of land plus lots of them are probably in good financial shape and some will make deals to lower rent or erase debt.

Lol.


You keep believing that.


I'm a dual citizenship... Good businesspeople invest where there is opportunity.

To each their own

[bgmb]

Best of luck Klause when i see pics of your certified organic crops in Argentina I will know you can walk the walk

[farming101]

In the 2016 calendar year there is evidence Russian wheat of all types sold for an average of 166 USD/t
I for one am not ready to compete against those prices. Being first to market at that price is not a recipe for success. They will have their market. The talk has been around for 40 years that if the Black Sea farmland was ever made to produce to potential the market would never be the same. Well its happening

[brs]

When things r in a uptrend nobody looks below. I'm not saying land is going to drop to pre 2010 levels but there will be a correction and I think a fairly substantial one. I was looking through input statements a couple weeks ago from 10 years ago till now and can't believe the uptrend in prices. Chem companies have nothing to worry about they get the percentage return year over year. All I am saying is the risk is getting ridiculous for the reward.

[LEP]

Klause, I have farmed since the late 70's. Since '90 with enough money on the line to matter. I remember thinking the same thing you are for many years.

Then somewhere along the way things changed and I realized we have it not too bad.

I have been an owner of several different businesses in different sectors and worked in different sectors as well.

They are all tough to run and grow a business in. The saying goes, if it was easy everyone would do it.

[farmaholic]

Soooo..... paying more for the land than the income it can generate to pay for itself isn't sound business management ?


And all this time I thought......

Lowest cost producer didn't mean anything.

No more land eh,

[Klause]

In the 2016 calendar year there is evidence Russian wheat of all types sold for an average of 166 USD/t
I for one am not ready to compete against those prices. Being first to market at that price is not a recipe for success. They will have their market. The talk has been around for 40 years that if the Black Sea farmland was ever made to produce to potential the market would never be the same. Well its happening

We don't have a choice.

New varieties only push yield... and the world isn't looking for protein that much anymore.

That price works out to $5.62 a bushel.... at port.

The way it currently works, that would give us $3.50 off farm.



Oh, and INTA released two wheat varieties into the public domain that are high protein short season red wheat for the winter season.

Here comes competition in the 13-15% protein class.


We need to find niche markets and crops, or we're dead in the water.

Remember those years the CWB couldn't sell our whole crop, when it was 1/2 to 2/3 of what it is today? Yeah... Those days.

[blackpowder]

Everyone here possibly right.
Nothing new happens given long enough timeline I suppose.
Hard to know when to cash in.

What is in Saskatchewan DNA that has people seeing 1929 lurking in every shadow?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Before we all give up, best to keep in mind that mother nature has a bad habit of throwing a wrench in when least expected. In recent years She has been awfully benevolent to farmers worldwide for an unprecedentedly long time( longest period since the end of the medieval warm period IMHO). She may just keep doing so, but history seems to indicate that these periods are the exception, and not the rule. Unfortunately, it might be us who she decides to pick on next time.

[farmaholic]

Everyone here possibly right.
Nothing new happens given long enough timeline I suppose.
Hard to know when to cash in.

What is in Saskatchewan DNA that has people seeing 1929 lurking in every shadow?

Maybe because its felt like 1929 until less than a decade ago. The depression(economic) mentality had been seared into the two generation's memories who were alive at the time and then the dire warnings handed down to their successors like religion! We never had the prosperity our Western cousins had...

[Crestliner]

I'm looking through the Western Producer classifieds this morning.

I remember a couple of decades ago there were pages and pages and pages(and the physical size of the pages were bigger than they are today) of Sask farmland for sale. Now there are a few short columns and that space is even littered with real estate agent ads and even want ads.

What a difference 2 or 3 decades makes, was it that bad then or is it that good now?

WANTED: functioning crystal ball, 100% accuracy rate.

Everyone has made interesting comments about land and prices and where things may go. But getting back to the original comment about the skinny “Failing Western Producer Classified Ad Section”...it has nothing to do with the farm economy but all about technology.

There are way more interesting ways to sell your items than over print on WP Classified that didn’t exist 20 years ago or were not embraced yet. Kijji for one I think is dominating, it’s quick free or cheap and has broad appeal. I used to love the WP Classifieds and was the only reason I got the WP for years was for the classifieds, as I had to painfully wade through the very weak and gossipy one sided opinionated stories to get to them.

Quit the subscription years ago and can’t say I miss the garbage reporting. Still look on-line at it and see that the stories are still weak and they couldn’t even manage the classified ads online and farmed it out to Farmzilla...progress as they say.