Flipping thru the Classifieds

[MBgrower]

land prices may slow or drop a little, but there wont be any big correction. lots of farms with lots of wealth, and with improvements and increased size of machinery over the last 10-15 years, farms continue to grow in size. If we are going to compete in the world markets, either grow in size, or specialize in nice markets.

[farmaholic]

Good point Crestliner.

[jd3007]

There are many farms that already have had disasters over the last 10 years. Too wet in NE sask and NW Manitoba, from 2010 to 2014, Drought 2015 in South Sask, late harvest and poor quality in 2016 and that was on a big part of the prairies. Banks have have been doing record amounts of refinancing and cash injections to keep operations going. Most guys don’t go around bragging that they have to refinance so that’s why you don’t hear about it. Trade credit, at Input Retailers and dealer financing on Iron are easy to come by. CCGA cash advance and Input Capital are your last options. There have been many guys who have used up these options and have quietly exited by selling out enough assets to get out of trouble and then renting out what land they own, or having to sell out completely. The difference now vs the late 80s early 90s financial crisis is most times the banks are telling guys well in advance to get out while they have some equity. Call RB auction disperse the equipment and get out with maybe some money. The land rules have changed and outside investors are allowed to buy land. You are also seeing Hutterite colonies start new colonies. Guys from Alta and Ontario are selling their land their and buying in Saskatchewan. And finally there is still many farms who have done well over the last 10 years. There are many farms who are very cash rich, but again don’t go around bragging. The ag industry has to be the worst for jealousy. You can see it on Agrivile daily. Many if these operations are ready to expand and ready to take over any land that comes available. We may see a correction in some areas , but many of these factors will continue to hold land prices up.

[Integrity_Farmer]

We don't have a choice.

New varieties only push yield... and the world isn't looking for protein that much anymore.

That price works out to $5.62 a bushel.... at port.

The way it currently works, that would give us $3.50 off farm.



Oh, and INTA released two wheat varieties into the public domain that are high protein short season red wheat for the winter season.

Here comes competition in the 13-15% protein class.


We need to find niche markets and crops, or we're dead in the water.

Remember those years the CWB couldn't sell our whole crop, when it was 1/2 to 2/3 of what it is today? Yeah... Those days.

Klause you state "Remember those years the CWB couldn't sell our whole crop, when it was 1/2 to 2/3 of what it is today? Yeah... Those days"

Can you substantiate that with facts or is this more hyperbole?. Remember that in the last 5 years the Canadian dollar has been at 70 to 80 cents US thus masking the real price. Currently the $4.20 1RS low protein wheat at my elevator is only $3.36 a bushel in US dollars.

The US Export Enhancement (EEP) program that started in 1985 devastated the price of Canadian and world wheat price.
EEP was still active in 2004 in the feed grain market depressing the price of 2004 Canadian feed wheat. How EEP worked was that the US on a sale by Cargill for example to another country would sell two bushels and send a third bushel along free.
I remember talking to CWB Commissioner Forest Hetland at the time and he said he was back from a sales mission. Hetland said he was "giving wheat away". EEP's impact was higher price in the US because the US was and non subsidized market. Uninformed Canadian farmers then ran the border. EEP was a program for the US trans nationals to put pressure on the CWB and AWB to take market share.

Niche Markets. The CWB and Canadian system did supply big niche markets such as Japan, Great Britain etc.. Remember durum and malt barley. Remember Warburton contracts and the Churchill freight and storage program.

In fact the last 6 years that the CWB operated were the best years we had on our farm and remember the dollar was at or near par with the US.

[Grahamp]

I really don’t get the negativity. I am not saying things might not change in the future, and the 2020’s might in fact be just like the 1980’s. But for the future we can see (2018 prices) we have 400 a tonne N (or at least we had for quite a while) and we have 11.25 canola and 12.75 Nexerra. If we call wheat break even you should make $100 an acre off your canola, based on a 35 bps Nexerra or 40 bpa commodity canola. And that is based on a $350 per acre cost. On a wheat canola rotation farm that works out to $50 an acre profit across the farm, as well as conservatively allowing 50 an acre land cost. So a 4000 acre guy who rents 2000 acres and owns 1000 acres free and clear and owes $1000 an acre on another 1000 acres is looking at making $250,000 in 2018. This is why rent is going up, things look good.

[farming101]

Could be worse

[bucket]

Wow.....and the Weston group is making 2000 plus per acre by price fixing.....