Forecasting....

[farmaholic]

Reading Lerner's forecast is a bit unnerving. Still early yet but where I'm farming... as of today we're sitting behind the eight ball.

Hard to imagine seeding $12 canola seed into the current moisture conditions if things don't improve ALOT between now and seeding time.

I was at an IHARF meeting yesterday where one of the presenters mentioned the accuracy of forecasting is improving. Maybe not micro elements of the forecast like saying "Regina will receive "X" millimeters of rain during the next five days".... or the fact rain may be forecast for the area but might miss us by 100 kms. But Lerner's forecasts talks about:

"Each of these weather phenomena;
the Gulf of Alaska
cold water anomalies, the 18-
year cycle, the solar cycle and
the 45 day LRC cycle could
reinforce one another and
unless some changes occur
this spring their may be another
surprisingly difficult
production year lying ahead."

....and the affects these things will have on the weather going forward. It may not be an exact science with a high degree of accuracy but these factors influence weather. I look forward to the next " The Canadian Agriculture Weather Prognosticator" he publishes.

TO SUBSCRIBE CALL 913-383-1161 OR WRITE TO WORLDWEATHER@BIZKC.RR.COM

[Guest]

buy some revenue insurance , was looking at gars , that program sure seems to have come along , tempted to try it for a year?

[biglentil]

Wasn't Drew L way wrong in 2017. According to Cliff High's Alta Reprt we are going to experience record flooding so much so that the term "inland sea" will be used to describe it. Cliff high nailed 2017's weather. All predictions are somewhat woo woo. Volotility appears to be the new norm.

[farmaholic]

I know of a guy who bought it(GARS) and seems to be getting the run-around on a claim.
Seems some of these outfits are sure eager to take the premium but will "Loonie and Toonie" you to death on a big claim payout.

I think I could "weather" a hit if I watch/control my spending. No Frills farming for a year.... if everyone had this attitude the input people should be paying attention!

[Guest]

I'm thinking the same on the input side , have you talked to someone personally thats getting the run around on gars ? would be interested to know ? i would sure be tempted to try it if i was you , you've had good crops , 5 yr ave probably pretty good ? and you guys sure are dry ? looking back we sure would of got a good payout in 16 , considering crop and hail ins aren't counted as revenue. we can handle another hit also , just don't want to go backwards at this stage of my life

[SASKFARMER3]

It sucks! Useless insurance but loves your premiums.

We’re looking at just solutions.

But may need major hail insurance if Drew is right for July and August.

Map of drought we’re still yellow circle in red

[AlbertaFarmer5]

It sucks! Useless insurance but loves your premiums.

We’re looking at just solutions.

But may need major hail insurance if Drew is right for July and August.

Map of drought we’re still yellow circle in red

Just looked at the drought map of Canada. Basically all of the agriculture regions in the country are in some degree of drought. With a large area in Sever Drought. Is this relevant to the market in the middle of winter? Is it already priced in? If not, at what point does the market pay attention?

[Oliver88]

Just looked at the drought map of Canada. Basically all of the agriculture regions in the country are in some degree of drought. With a large area in Sever Drought. Is this relevant to the market in the middle of winter? Is it already priced in? If not, at what point does the market pay attention?

IMO it will be bullish for the crops that have a large % grown in the prairies that require significant moisture.

Prediction: canola prices increase around April 1st and stay high through July.......dip for maintenance projects in August.

[SASKFARMER3]

By May 20 th if it doesn’t change a lot of expensive canola will be sitting in dry earth and farmers will be pissed and reps will be hard to find and media and politicians and Grain companies will be prying for Rain.

Sask crop report will be positive as always.

My report will be truthful.

One rain spirits will be lifted and market will crash.


Ah farming it sucks some days

[blackpowder]

Where were the Gars investors when times were shitty?
Where do you think they will be when we have 2 margin wrecks?
Why do you think they prefer clients with little term debt.
Crickets......

[bucket]

Gars will get a provincial handout long before any individual farmer owed money from gars....

Follow the money....

[farmaholic]

Gars will get a provincial handout long before any individual farmer owed money from gars....

Follow the money....

Yikes

[Guest]

is there farmers not getting paid ? i can't find anything online ? sure interested to know before we think about committing ?

[SASKFARMER3]

Yea their is farmers not getting paid read the fine print it’s al hype.

[RD414]

We have had gars for 4 crops, small payout first year and for year with snow and crop left out. Takes a while but they paid out. Goes on sales and inventory and a spring cutoff date. Requires some patience.