Tsunami of Black Sea Wheat

[Klause]

Except nothing Crestliner said has a basis in reality.


Hard to breathe optimistic when your main crops can't be sold (still sitting on October wheat and now the rest probably won't go until March/April) no new crop bids on peas.


Canada is the only country in the world with protein discounts on soy and peas.


Kazakhstan is a serious player in the pulse industry.


Russia - not the Ukraine - will itself export 45MMT of wheat this year. That is in addition to the Ukrainian 30MMT.


Russia has a vast rail network. They can export to Vietnam by freght train. Same for many middle eastern countries as well as Europe.

Maybe you need to look at the Hong show that is port of Vancouver. No storage constricted space and loading one ship at a time.

When an Argie farmer gets $6 for 11.5 pro wheat anytime he wants to sell and we get $4.75 (because that's what it is off of cash price) something is wrong.



Every one of our exporters is building out infrastructure improving genetics and most have far better climates.


We had quality control and superior systems but no more.


We have talks going on about how we don't need trains or pipelines or any infrastructure like that...

You know what other country did that since the 50s?

50 years of poverty, no hope no opportunity... But I guess one can live in la la Land and pretend all is good.



Obviously enough people do so look at land and equipment prices.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Oh boo hoo Alberta Klause is showing the truth and the truth hurts we are getting replaced and unfortunately it will be to Late once guys like you figure it out. If I was younger I would sell out and leave Canada for Good. Farming in South America or Russia is the new frontier.

On the surface I agree with you, but when I look for real world evidence, there is none. Record land prices, record rents, equipment and technology still selling, multinationals still investing in Canadian Ag. Most are still speaking with their wallets.

If not for our misguided socialist governments, we should have some of the lowest costs in the world. Land prices and rent will sort themselves out until we return to that position.

[Klause]

On the surface I agree with you, but when I look for real world evidence, there is none. Record land prices, record rents, equipment and technology still selling, multinationals still investing in Canadian Ag. Most are still speaking with their wallets.

If not for our misguided socialist governments, we should have some of the lowest costs in the world. Land prices and rent will sort themselves out until we return to that position.

Which multinationals would that be?

Brandt setting up shop in the US.
Spitz also
As is Macdon.

4 more Canadian oil companies moved into Nequen.
Suncor announced no further investment in Canada because of our hostile climate. Company I work for called us all into the conference room to tell us the same... Once this expansion is complete they are done.


Don't need to believe me.

Here's the western producer telling you about the Black Sea problem.

https://www.producer.com/2018/01/russias-wheat-dominance-set-to-get-bigger-in-the-future/ https://www.producer.com/2018/01/russias-wheat-dominance-set-to-get-bigger-in-the-future/

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Except nothing Crestliner said has a basis in reality.


Hard to breathe optimistic when your main crops can't be sold (still sitting on October wheat and now the rest probably won't go until March/April) no new crop bids on peas.


Canada is the only country in the world with protein discounts on soy and peas.


Kazakhstan is a serious player in the pulse industry.


Russia - not the Ukraine - will itself export 45MMT of wheat this year. That is in addition to the Ukrainian 30MMT.


Russia has a vast rail network. They can export to Vietnam by freght train. Same for many middle eastern countries as well as Europe.

Maybe you need to look at the Hong show that is port of Vancouver. No storage constricted space and loading one ship at a time.

When an Argie farmer gets $6 for 11.5 pro wheat anytime he wants to sell and we get $4.75 (because that's what it is off of cash price) something is wrong.



Every one of our exporters is building out infrastructure improving genetics and most have far better climates.


We had quality control and superior systems but no more.


We have talks going on about how we don't need trains or pipelines or any infrastructure like that...

You know what other country did that since the 50s?

50 years of poverty, no hope no opportunity... But I guess one can live in la la Land and pretend all is good.



Obviously enough people do so look at land and equipment prices.

Klause, you're words and actions are in conflict. It appears that you are heavily investing in Canadian farmland, modern equipment and the latest technology.

[Klause]

Then there's the fact that New ag graduates can't find. Work... All the majors have hiring freezes on...




You're right land prices and rent keep going higher... They always do right before a bubble bursts.

[TASFarms]

If there is an average crop this year the elevators will be plugged and "No bid" prices. But for a steep discount elevators will buy it so the farmer can try paying his bills. Klause is bang on

[Klause]

Klause, you're words and actions are in conflict. It appears that you are heavily investing in Canadian farmland, modern equipment and the latest technology.

Not really.


We own 1 quarter. And equipment from the early/mid 2000s because we needed it.


We had half our crop out under snow last year. Not a dime from crop insurance.


This year grew a lot of low protein wheat that I'm sitting on and can't pay bills because nobody wants it.

Took till December to move the last of our off the combine peas.

Stupid wind storm took a half section of canola that's supposedly pod shatter resistant but isn't... Marketing in ag doesn't have to reflect truth.

Lost the only buyer of spring thrashed canola (Milligan).

But please, tell me how great ag is doing.

[bucket]

AF5

You can't blame it on socialist governments all the time.

The railways are capitalist private companies that routinely holds this country hostage. Along with their collusion with grain companies.

[Crestliner]

The primary producer deserves as much if not more attention. Without a healthy primary producer, everything downline eventually suffers or fails.

There is no doubt that we have have a huge vacuum of vision or leadership in our Goverment today. I really don’t think they know what to do. We have a Flake of a PM who has never made a payroll or created something from nothing and our Ag Minister isn’t much better.

That being said, we have a great Country and we have a lot of great people that will let things only go so far. Some of the benefits we enjoy on the farm today are consequences of good decisions made awhile ago...ie: CWB freedom, less regulation, encouragement of a Biotech industry, lower taxes, diversification strategy, etc. We enjoy the results today of these past strategy and policies. The Government needs to do more to foster and keep the industry viable by focusing on policy that controls costs and increases our efficencies.

While I appreciate the people on this forum pulling the fire alarm to attract attention to threats, it’s easy to go full negative rather than work to pushing for change.

The biggest threat to grain growers today in Western Canada is the Carbon Tax threat and the Railway Infustry and chronic lack of required service.

1. The Carbon Tax threat will rip all the bottom line out of farming and send the industry reeling and unable to meet the financial commitments made. It is crazy that we are in control of this and a faction of our leadership is hell bent to implement it and hurt us for no reason.

2. Railway service in this country sucks always has. We only have two of them and they do not compete. I don’t think we will ever have a competitive railway industry in this County because there will never be competition. The railway has caused untold harm to farmers and put several small companies out of business. Now with market conditions as they are and the chronic railway service watch for more failures. We need Government leadership on the railway to enforce those things that are good for the farmers. That means moving grain when we want to move it, when the buyer is willing to pay a premium. I have a month to harvest my crop and have 4 combines in a shed for 11 months doing nothing. The railway should have excess assets to meet our best market opportunities for farmers when they are there. Unfortunately we need smart goverment to implement this and there hasn’t been much aggressiveness from any of our Governements.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Here are a few examples of infrastructure spending here:
http://business.financialpost.com/commodities/agriculture/grain-handlers-spending-big-as-canadian-crops-set-to-feed-more-of-the-world http://business.financialpost.com/commodities/agriculture/grain-handlers-spending-big-as-canadian-crops-set-to-feed-more-of-the-world

Manufacturing is fleeing our absurd punitive tax and regulatory environment as fast as possible, that has nothing to do with the future of production ag. Can't move an inland terminal to a country with no carbon tax. They continue to invest. More new elevators and expansions happening in our area.