Tsunami of Black Sea Wheat

[makar]

Find my nearest p and h, now thats funny, more chance of finding the easter bunny. They and elvis left the building years ago.

[farmaholic]

Who in the chain is perceived as taking too much, more than their share, compared to each other's investment and risk in the Industry?

The world value of a tonne of grain gets divided among everyone in the Industry. Inputs, goods and services.

World prices paid for fert manufactured on our door step....no NOLA freight incurred. Must be quite the margins in that scenario.

Canola seed prices supporting the huge bloated money sucking business structure that supplies it.

Basis levels off international grain prices....they don't even want to take any of the pricing risk anymore....every effort is made to pass it on to the primary producer. If they want no risk- then become a toll handler and try not to make money on grade spreads, Fx, and grain exchange price moves. .....and passing down the demurrage costs!

Current fuel prices disportionately priced compared to when a barrel of oil was at it's high.

Astronomically priced machinery and their parts.

Maybe there could be more money to pay more commercial grain freight prices if there was a re-allocation of the limited amount of money to go around from a tonne of grain. Reset time? No one likes giving up any gains made. Reality is we seem to be caught in the middle, price cost squeezes without alot of options to recoup extra costs.

Then there's Mother Nature....

[Oliver88]

On the surface I agree with you, but when I look for real world evidence, there is none. Record land prices, record rents, equipment and technology still selling, multinationals still investing in Canadian Ag. Most are still speaking with their wallets.

If not for our misguided socialist governments, we should have some of the lowest costs in the world. Land prices and rent will sort themselves out until we return to that position.

You bring up valid points and Crestliner’s point #4 is on par with this as well.
If the direction of land prices and rent gauge optimism than it is maxed out right now.

Land prices and rent are going up along with interest rates so that is a sign of a lot of optimism and demand to buy.

[farmaholic]

You bring up valid points and Crestliner’s point #4 is on par with this as well.
If the direction of land prices and rent gauge optimism than it is maxed out right now.

Land prices and rent are going up along with interest rates so that is a sign of a lot of optimism and demand to buy.

I think the "SS HYPE" is about to set sail....through a mine feild on a collision course with an iceberg.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

You're right land prices and rent keep going higher... They always do right before a bubble bursts.

"Here", they have been going higher since the late 80's, and I've heard the same thing ever since then too. One of these days it will be correct, but waiting for that once in a career opportunity to occur would have cost someone my age an entire career.

[Klause]

"Here", they have been going higher since the late 80's, and I've heard the same thing ever since then too. One of these days it will be correct, but waiting for that once in a career opportunity to occur would have cost someone my age an entire career.

Been farming here for 5 years. In that time land prices have at least tripled.


Would have made way more money buying 15 quarters and leveraging ourselves to the hilt 5 yrs ago and selling that land today.


Hindsight is 20/20

[SASKFARMER3]

Keep voting NDP governments and watch your correction begin.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Not really.


We own 1 quarter. And equipment from the early/mid 2000s because we needed it.


We had half our crop out under snow last year. Not a dime from crop insurance.


This year grew a lot of low protein wheat that I'm sitting on and can't pay bills because nobody wants it.

Took till December to move the last of our off the combine peas.

Stupid wind storm took a half section of canola that's supposedly pod shatter resistant but isn't... Marketing in ag doesn't have to reflect truth.

Lost the only buyer of spring thrashed canola (Milligan).

But please, tell me how great ag is doing.

My sincerest sympathies on being on the receiving end of mother natures wrath. Living on the fringe of the fringe as we do, I assume such catastrophes are the norm and not the exception, and spend accordingly. No insurance, risk reward still isn't worth it. Left a massive amount of canola on the ground thanks to wind this year(non pod shatter, but a new lastest and greatest variety, whereas the discontinued variety right beside had none). Left most of our barley and wheat out the winter before, spent a fortune to salvage the canola in November. Had 95% of our acres hailed out in 2014. Varying areas of drowned out crop almost every year, frost, snow, wind, wildlife, cows, dry, rain, hail. You're not the only one.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Been farming here for 5 years. In that time land prices have at least tripled.


Would have made way more money buying 15 quarters and leveraging ourselves to the hilt 5 yrs ago and selling that land today.


Hindsight is 20/20

How does that compare to land appreciation in Argentina over the same period? Would it buy you more land there now than it would have 5 years ago? Your equipment has likely appreciated in CAD over that period. Is it not too late to move to Argentina?

My hindsight seems to work better than my foresight too, otherwise, I would have been your neighbor instead of staying here.

[Klause]

How does that compare to land appreciation in Argentina over the same period? Would it buy you more land there now than it would have 5 years ago? Your equipment has likely appreciated in CAD over that period. Is it not too late to move to Argentina?

My hindsight seems to work better than my foresight too, otherwise, I would have been your neighbor instead of staying here.

Argentina had a land run up in the early 2000s to 2012 and they've been dropping until last year.... And leveled off.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Argentina had a land run up in the early 2000s to 2012 and they've been dropping until last year.... And leveled off.

So you've been further ahead investing here in the interim, perhaps it's time to cash out and invest there? Sounds like their future is much rosier than ours.

[bgmb]

Not really.


We own 1 quarter. And equipment from the early/mid 2000s because we needed it.


We had half our crop out under snow last year. Not a dime from crop insurance.


This year grew a lot of low protein wheat that I'm sitting on and can't pay bills because nobody wants it.

Took till December to move the last of our off the combine peas.

Stupid wind storm took a half section of canola that's supposedly pod shatter resistant but isn't... Marketing in ag doesn't have to reflect truth.

Lost the only buyer of spring thrashed canola (Milligan).

But please, tell me how great ag is doing.

That is a run of bad luck Klause, I would search to manitoba for a market for that wheat there might be an elevator in the rrv that would blend it off and you have a truck to move it.

I assume that was a rr canola that shelled out? from what I hear Bayer has the only true pod shatter and maybe Pioneer has an ok one.

We went through the same thing here in early 2000s with frost and flooding 2 dollar feed wheat nobody wanted and 6 dollar frozen canola