Tsunami of Black Sea Wheat

[TASFarms]

If there is an average crop this year the elevators will be plugged and "No bid" prices. But for a steep discount elevators will buy it so the farmer can try paying his bills. Klause is bang on

[Klause]

Klause, you're words and actions are in conflict. It appears that you are heavily investing in Canadian farmland, modern equipment and the latest technology.

Not really.


We own 1 quarter. And equipment from the early/mid 2000s because we needed it.


We had half our crop out under snow last year. Not a dime from crop insurance.


This year grew a lot of low protein wheat that I'm sitting on and can't pay bills because nobody wants it.

Took till December to move the last of our off the combine peas.

Stupid wind storm took a half section of canola that's supposedly pod shatter resistant but isn't... Marketing in ag doesn't have to reflect truth.

Lost the only buyer of spring thrashed canola (Milligan).

But please, tell me how great ag is doing.

[bucket]

AF5

You can't blame it on socialist governments all the time.

The railways are capitalist private companies that routinely holds this country hostage. Along with their collusion with grain companies.

[Crestliner]

The primary producer deserves as much if not more attention. Without a healthy primary producer, everything downline eventually suffers or fails.

There is no doubt that we have have a huge vacuum of vision or leadership in our Goverment today. I really don’t think they know what to do. We have a Flake of a PM who has never made a payroll or created something from nothing and our Ag Minister isn’t much better.

That being said, we have a great Country and we have a lot of great people that will let things only go so far. Some of the benefits we enjoy on the farm today are consequences of good decisions made awhile ago...ie: CWB freedom, less regulation, encouragement of a Biotech industry, lower taxes, diversification strategy, etc. We enjoy the results today of these past strategy and policies. The Government needs to do more to foster and keep the industry viable by focusing on policy that controls costs and increases our efficencies.

While I appreciate the people on this forum pulling the fire alarm to attract attention to threats, it’s easy to go full negative rather than work to pushing for change.

The biggest threat to grain growers today in Western Canada is the Carbon Tax threat and the Railway Infustry and chronic lack of required service.

1. The Carbon Tax threat will rip all the bottom line out of farming and send the industry reeling and unable to meet the financial commitments made. It is crazy that we are in control of this and a faction of our leadership is hell bent to implement it and hurt us for no reason.

2. Railway service in this country sucks always has. We only have two of them and they do not compete. I don’t think we will ever have a competitive railway industry in this County because there will never be competition. The railway has caused untold harm to farmers and put several small companies out of business. Now with market conditions as they are and the chronic railway service watch for more failures. We need Government leadership on the railway to enforce those things that are good for the farmers. That means moving grain when we want to move it, when the buyer is willing to pay a premium. I have a month to harvest my crop and have 4 combines in a shed for 11 months doing nothing. The railway should have excess assets to meet our best market opportunities for farmers when they are there. Unfortunately we need smart goverment to implement this and there hasn’t been much aggressiveness from any of our Governements.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Here are a few examples of infrastructure spending here:
http://business.financialpost.com/commodities/agriculture/grain-handlers-spending-big-as-canadian-crops-set-to-feed-more-of-the-world http://business.financialpost.com/commodities/agriculture/grain-handlers-spending-big-as-canadian-crops-set-to-feed-more-of-the-world

Manufacturing is fleeing our absurd punitive tax and regulatory environment as fast as possible, that has nothing to do with the future of production ag. Can't move an inland terminal to a country with no carbon tax. They continue to invest. More new elevators and expansions happening in our area.

[SASKFARMER3]

Follow the money a long time liberal is his financial planner. Can’t sell lentils get a gift to do protein.

And farmers get shit on

[SASKFARMER3]

Yea in our area their building soy treating plants at elevators it’s about money Alberta just follow it.

[Crestliner]

Makar- find a P&H elevator nearest you and put in a target on your new crop wheat. They are the best wheat company in business today and that has been my experience.
Makar- 80% of prairie grain ships from Vancouver, 20% from Thunder Bay.....zero in Bulk Boxcars thankfully.

[Klause]

Makar- find a P&H elevator nearest you and put in a target on your new crop wheat. They are the best wheat company in business today and that has been my experience.
Makar- 80% of prairie grain ships from Vancouver, 20% from Thunder Bay.....zero in Bulk Boxcars thankfully.

Our p and h doesn't even have new crop bids.


You must be in Manitoba.

[makar]

Find my nearest p and h, now thats funny, more chance of finding the easter bunny. They and elvis left the building years ago.

[farmaholic]

Who in the chain is perceived as taking too much, more than their share, compared to each other's investment and risk in the Industry?

The world value of a tonne of grain gets divided among everyone in the Industry. Inputs, goods and services.

World prices paid for fert manufactured on our door step....no NOLA freight incurred. Must be quite the margins in that scenario.

Canola seed prices supporting the huge bloated money sucking business structure that supplies it.

Basis levels off international grain prices....they don't even want to take any of the pricing risk anymore....every effort is made to pass it on to the primary producer. If they want no risk- then become a toll handler and try not to make money on grade spreads, Fx, and grain exchange price moves. .....and passing down the demurrage costs!

Current fuel prices disportionately priced compared to when a barrel of oil was at it's high.

Astronomically priced machinery and their parts.

Maybe there could be more money to pay more commercial grain freight prices if there was a re-allocation of the limited amount of money to go around from a tonne of grain. Reset time? No one likes giving up any gains made. Reality is we seem to be caught in the middle, price cost squeezes without alot of options to recoup extra costs.

Then there's Mother Nature....

[Oliver88]

On the surface I agree with you, but when I look for real world evidence, there is none. Record land prices, record rents, equipment and technology still selling, multinationals still investing in Canadian Ag. Most are still speaking with their wallets.

If not for our misguided socialist governments, we should have some of the lowest costs in the world. Land prices and rent will sort themselves out until we return to that position.

You bring up valid points and Crestliner’s point #4 is on par with this as well.
If the direction of land prices and rent gauge optimism than it is maxed out right now.

Land prices and rent are going up along with interest rates so that is a sign of a lot of optimism and demand to buy.

[farmaholic]

You bring up valid points and Crestliner’s point #4 is on par with this as well.
If the direction of land prices and rent gauge optimism than it is maxed out right now.

Land prices and rent are going up along with interest rates so that is a sign of a lot of optimism and demand to buy.

I think the "SS HYPE" is about to set sail....through a mine feild on a collision course with an iceberg.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

You're right land prices and rent keep going higher... They always do right before a bubble bursts.

"Here", they have been going higher since the late 80's, and I've heard the same thing ever since then too. One of these days it will be correct, but waiting for that once in a career opportunity to occur would have cost someone my age an entire career.

[Klause]

"Here", they have been going higher since the late 80's, and I've heard the same thing ever since then too. One of these days it will be correct, but waiting for that once in a career opportunity to occur would have cost someone my age an entire career.

Been farming here for 5 years. In that time land prices have at least tripled.


Would have made way more money buying 15 quarters and leveraging ourselves to the hilt 5 yrs ago and selling that land today.


Hindsight is 20/20