Wheat

[farmaholic]

WTF..... looks like MGEX wheat is on it's death bed taking it's last breaths. Where is support(as simple as a support line would be, I don't do chart analysis). Kansas wheat has turned but kinda leveled out but why is MGEX lagging so bad? I thought Px was king....and MGEX is the hard wheat with Px market, isn't it?

Anyone have any recommendations for an interactive chart website.

[bucket]

International tenders don't need MGEX ...they just need bids and the lowest gets it. Much like having a pile of TPAs to pick and choose from.

Russia doesn't need MGEX to sell wheat.

Who is currently kicking our ass in the wheat trade?

Does that clear it up?

[farmaholic]

.........so according to the Bollinger Bands and RSI, the market should turn soon?

But what about that long term trend down, can it break it and turn meaningfully higher?

Fundamentals????

[Agvocate]

MGEX is losing it's premium to the other wheat's. It's still historically high, $1.30 premium to KC and $1.50 premium to Chicago, (based on May contracts) but as more of the cash protein market is satisfied the less of a premium it commands. I don't know the exact long term average premium MGEX is over the other 2, but believe it's close to 50 cents. In those terms protein is still getting a large premium over the lower pro winter wheat contracts but it's well off the high's from the fall.

[bucket]

there is an old proverb....trade in wheat sleep on the street...

Seems everyone wants to sell price protection....sell being the key word. It costs something.

I am no market anything but if the trade was being done by the markets ...why do countries issue international tenders for their needs?

And how does it get reflected in the market once the tenders are public?

[farmaholic]

I am not going to take any positions in the market, other than being long physical, am not going to be buying any price protection either. Just want an understanding. When you look at the trading charts, its interesting to see the history(hindsight being 22/20). Unfortunately, there is no clear window to look through into the future with. I find the analysis interesting as well but it drives me nuts that marketing decisions are made and markets move based on chart analysis versus fundamentals...

Someone tell me if I am wrong.

Maybe the fundamentals, of the S&D and S/U, are the base but the rest is speculators moving the market based on chart analysis.

There are afew AVers who seem to understand the Futures Market and the nuts and bolts of it very well....please chime in. Let's have a marketing thread in the Commodity Forum.

[TASFarms]

I believe fundamentals have very little to do with today's futures. To many computers trading off algorithms.

[farmaholic]

So my simple abacus mind is supposed to out trade an algorithmic computer program....

Get the picture....this is a battle I am unarmed for!

🤔

[bucket]

Buy a better computer...is that the right answer?

I have upgraded to the equivalent of a hamster wheel in my head...always turning...and knowing full well the russians are kicking our ass out of the wheat market and soon everything else...because ag has value there .

[farmaholic]

Maybe it's not about beating the market but heeding the signals.

Why doesn't anyone challenge my uneducated opinion.....don't be afraid of the ranting lunatic.

I just don't know if I would do any better than what I'm doing today....well, maybe in some cases like locking in prices on a crop I haven't seeded or harvested yet.?.

[Agvocate]

This has branched off in a few directions but will throw out my opinion on a few items:

MGEX - $6.00 has held in the nearby recently. Technically a close below that level can open up more room for downside, if the spread to KC and Chicago continue to narrow and your local elevator protein spreads narrow in, tells me the market has enough protein for the time being. If all that continues not a whole lot of reason to be bullish spring wheat. Wheat rallies are meant to be sold until I read at least one article that suggests supply is tightening overall.

Funds/Computers/Algo's - Like a lot of things I comment about, you don't have to like that they exist, but you have to deal with the fact they do. Most of the attention paid to funds by producers or on any of these threads is when they are record short and seen to be driving price lower than fundamentals would suggest. Realizing the opposite is also true when they are long is opportunity. If you believe futures have been pushed 50 cents to low at times, they probably have been pushed 50 cents too high as well.

If you can remove the emotional attachment to what you produce and just look at a spreadsheet of returns you are likely to make a better decision regardless of your understanding of futures, technicals, algo's etc.

[farmaholic]

Thanks Tasfarms, Bucket and Agvocate..... so far.