What factors will cause land to crash or appreciate in your area?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Old money. Lots of it. Within six mile radius, there are 16 or more farmers under 50, with a dozen or more of them under 40, probably ten are under 30. Land just does not come up for sale.

I would think that even old money would eventually run out with no /flooded out crops for that many consecutive years? Let alone to be able to expand throughout that?

[Sheepwheat]

I would think that even old money would eventually run out with no /flooded out crops for that many consecutive years? Let alone to be able to expand throughout that?

Old money and long ago paid for land. Not a lot of expansion when no one sells out. Kind of a stagnant area, not many real big farms. Lots of 2000 acres an less farms, maxing out at 3 and 4 thousand, which are the rarity right around me. Most expansion has been inter family rentals turning to buyouts, and expansion outside our immdiat area. When land does sell, no one but the using buying out the uncle knows about it. Just enough decent years to maintain. It is a genetic lottery thing here. If you won that, you are good to go! Lol. The little scraps of land that do come up, are bought with co-signing parents, using grandpas paid for land. There was a generation here, the second generation, who made like bandits, and now the kids are able to coast on that. This area historically had never experienced production issues aside from the odd hail storm or fall frost. So from say the 20’s to the early 2000’s, good crops were the rule. That is when the deep pockets were made, and where the deep pockets came from. If my dad had not died, I would be in this group as well, so I do not begrudge it. It is what it is. I just wish I could spin the clock back a decade, I sure woulda, coulda, shoulda planned better, but no one new the weather would go stupid for so long.

I do honestly think last year was a saviour to many of these farms around here, excellent crops. Losing say 40 bucks an acre for a few years, even a decade, if you have deep pockets and land equity to lean on, is different than if you lose the same and have no land equity or deep intergenerational pockets to dig into. Hard to explain unless you live here maybe? Anyway, it is what it is. Now that I have come to terms with my own situation better, I have a more positive outlook. I used to be resentful, kind of negative on my own poor fortune. It took many years to realize, hey, we all were not blessed, so what? I gotta move on and do what I can on my own for my own family.

[dalek]

Migration of filthy-rich Southern Ontario farmers into this area, 50% provincial government subsidization of land clearing and tiling and investment by American hunting interests keep land prices climbing here. Majority 98% are subsidizing heavily with off-farm income. Prices have doubled to quadrupled in last few years and some people are pushing the boundaries of sanity in terms of prices for everything from muskeg and bare rock to open cleared ground. A few extremely wet cold years and poor prices would bring people back to reality - maybe.

Amish and Mennonites from the SW here, up your way too I think. And dairy farmers from the SW buying farms here outright so they can milk here long enough to be allowed to move the quota back home

[furrowtickler]

Not sure how much more it can appreciate here but it seems to keep going up. Last land sale was $480,000 per 1/4 . But then again that is deemed low compared to some areas.
The only thing that may temporarily depreciate land values is higher interest rates ?
Some bigger farms faultered here again this winter but others continue to expand .
Land prices setting new highs as well as rents . But management is a key driver not so much crop prices or crop condition. The average guy simply scratching their head saying Wtf ?
If only a guy had a crystal ball and a financial position back in the early 2000’s.
Like sayfly stated a new Hut colony has moved in and popped up land prices south west of here. Not sure how long lasting that will be.
But at end of the day , for now , the fight for land continues .

[SASKFARMER3]

Funny sure crop areas good land holding how will this work if rain ends on the west side.

One thing is certain if I was offered over 525 per quarter I would be gone lock stock and barrel.

No question asked here’s the keys Bye Bye.

[farmaholic]

There is no ****ing way land will pay for itself here in the Slum of the Ghetto, even at the reduced prices compared to what some other land is selling for in other areas. Was doing math this morning on a $320K quarter(145 acres open), with 25% down over:

15 years, $23220 annual payment, $160 per acre net earned to make payment
20 years, $19360 annual payment, $133 per acre
25 years, $17135 annual payment, $118 per acre

The fifteen year term doesn't seem even remotely possible 9 years out 10.

A twenty five year term brings the total cost(80K down payment and 240K loan @5%) to $528,385. I sure hope asset appreciation makes up for the $188,385 interest cost over the term of the loan assuming interest can stay at 5%. Add in 10% income tax paid on corporate dollars on the purchase price.... another $32,000.

Hello.... subsidize it. Where the **** is this making sense anymore? Reset time?

But I might be dumb enough to do it.

If you can pay cash, the acquisition cost is the initial price plus the $32K in income tax paid. From $550K down to $352K......WOW.


Furrow, has the criminal activity affected "some" of the rural land prices in that area?

[furrowtickler]

Farma - no it has had no effect.
This new property rights thing raises an eyebrow though.

[farmaholic]

Bucket, Don't forget to add in the cost of storage 😠

[Rareearth]

Scrap supply management = lower land prices

[grefer]

The biggest threat to land prices is if the NDP get back in and reverse land ownership rules. Back to the eighties.

[farmaholic]

If you're not selling, do land prices mean much, unless you like using it's equity to borrow against?

So if you're buying, low is good,.

Selling....looking for the most..

Depending which side of the transaction you're on determines what you want.

I wouldn't feel confident enough to crystallize my gains and sit on the sidelines waiting for a huge correction to buy back in though. I've been wrong too long already but now would be the time that _____________________.

[Guest]

There is no ****ing way land will pay for itself here in the Slum of the Ghetto, even at the reduced prices compared to what some other land is selling for in other areas. Was doing math this morning on a $320K quarter(145 acres open), with 25% down over:

15 years, $23220 annual payment, $160 per acre net earned to make payment
20 years, $19360 annual payment, $133 per acre
25 years, $17135 annual payment, $118 per acre

The fifteen year term doesn't seem even remotely possible 9 years out 10.

A twenty five year term brings the total cost(80K down payment and 240K loan @5%) to $528,385. I sure hope asset appreciation makes up for the $188,385 interest cost over the term of the loan assuming interest can stay at 5%. Add in 10% income tax paid on corporate dollars on the purchase price.... another $32,000.

Hello.... subsidize it. Where the **** is this making sense anymore? Reset time?

But I might be dumb enough to do it.

If you can pay cash, the acquisition cost is the initial price plus the $32K in income tax paid. From $550K down to $352K......WOW.


Furrow, has the criminal activity affected "some" of the rural land prices in that area?

farms , if you are paying cash , it's quite easy to get 2.3-2.5% interest on a 2 yr term . that is $8k /yr on a $350k price tag or $50/ac that you're not getting . usually when things won't work on paper , they won't work very long .