This could get ugly for us...

[farmaholic]

I bet there's areas of Western Canada that wonder what the hell I'm worried about, it's the unbroken weather trend we're experiencing in the area that I live. This next forecasted snow event supposedly won't be dropping alot of snow in the areas that need moisture the most. Local forecasts on the news showed the snow totals poor for here and Drew's prognosticator is saying the same for this weekend. Also isn't painting a pretty picture for here going forward. One good rain day later in April or early May could completely change things, but until I see a change in the trend or it shows me it can rain here....what can I say?


If I was a cowboy here, my comfort level would be very low, maybe lower than water levels in some dugouts. Runoff is going to be almost non-existent at this point. Grass pastures went into winter completely tapped out of reserve soil moisture and in horrible shape, really no different than grain land, probably worse. But cows need to drink water and graze to stay alive, if a crop withers and dies, not a big deal in comparison to emaciated cattle.

How big of an area is it? What's it like where you are? Do you have soil moisture reserves? Snow pack? What's your confidence level for spring?

It's only March 2nd but a month ago it was only Feb 1st and nothing has really changed. In a month from now snow will be gone or leaving.....we can't afford "net drying" here.

What's after dismal.....?

Take care folks!

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I bet there's areas of Western Canada that wonder what the hell I'm worried about, it's the unbroken weather trend we're experiencing in the area that I live. This next forecasted snow event supposedly won't be dropping alot of snow in the areas that need moisture the most. Local forecasts on the news showed the snow totals poor for here and Drew's prognosticator is saying the same for this weekend. Also isn't painting a pretty picture for here going forward. One good rain day later in April or early May could completely change things, but until I see a change in the trend or it shows me it can rain here....what can I say?


If I was a cowboy here, my comfort level would be very low, maybe lower than water levels in some dugouts. Runoff is going to be almost non-existent at this point. Grass pastures went into winter completely tapped out of reserve soil moisture and in horrible shape, really no different than grain land, probably worse. But cows need to drink water and graze to stay alive, if a crop withers and dies, not a big deal in comparison to emaciated cattle.

How big of an area is it? What's it like where you are? Do you have soil moisture reserves? Snow pack? What's your confidence level for spring?

It's only March 2nd but a month ago it was only Feb 1st and nothing has really changed. In a month from now snow will be gone or leaving.....we can't afford "net drying" here.

What's after dismal.....?

Take care folks!

Does snow melt really do much good some places? Here, it melts on frozen ground, and accumulates in any low spots greatly delaying field operations, but does little good where it is needed the most. Spring snow is very effective of course.

We had a ridiculously dry summer( once it finally stopped being ridiculously wet all spring into June), received a little moisture in the fall once it was too late to do any good. but now have above average snowpack, with another foot on the way, so spring shouldn't be too extreme either way.

I second what you are saying about the livestock guys. Those on here who complain the loudest about the weather, really need a few cows, then they will at least have earned the right to complain, but will likely be too busy to be on here complaining. The stress level with livestock and extreme weather is orders of magnitude greater than with grain, and that is bad enough. I just really like punishment, so have both, no matter what the weather, I have reason to be overjoyed and devastated all at the same time.

[bucket]

I have a great deal of faith knowing the day I move the cows to a nice dry clean pasture for calving there will be a wet snow ****ing it all up.....Been there done that.


It's not far off...

[malleefarmer]

Meet a guy in brooks ab last year at a fuel stop wiry cowboy dude stated he was 81 rides every day except xmas and his birthday.Fit as a fiddle.

Anyway you want a coffee he said sure. Chewed the fat he was third generation and said driest year in his families history mid august 17.

So dumb question how do your years start spring is start of new farming year? Or calendar?
Our farming year basically april to october rain wise.

Im very coherant tonight on the wine at the moment

[farmaholic]

Even the low spots have large gaping cracks on the clay based dirt. The lighter land absorbs alot of moisture at the best of times. When you're this dry I'll take any moisture.....even snow! Can dry ground really freeze?.....and there's always the hope of a slow thaw/melt that allows moisture to seep in were it melted versus run off to the low spots.

Mallee, the weather pattern in our area is always somewhat of a lottery. But if there was a typical year:
April/ May....rain is a bit more random, can be just nice rain showers.
June is what I call our true monsoon season. Spraying herbicides can even be challenging.
July/Aug is thundershower lottery season but August is typically dry and a good month to harvest.
Sept I remember as potentially being a rainy "pissy" month compared to August.
Oct is the "git er dun" month. There can be permanent snow on the ground by the end of the month.
Remember were talking weather.....anything can happen.
Oh ya, don't forget my nemisis the wind......my most hateful weather event. It can be incessantly relentless in spring, drying out freshly seeded land. And in fall retardedly strong wind can scatter canola swaths. And the ever looming threat of severe wind in thunder storms that ruin out buildings....

[grassfarmer]

Yep, potential to get very ugly here too farma. Maybe not quite as dry as you but bad enough. With adequate residue left we've at least been able to capture and hold everything that has fallen, overgrazed pastures probably captured half the potential moisture, crop land very little. These soy stubbles are going to create a problem in this area going forward - all the snow and some of the topsoil in the ditch.
As you say there is still time for it to turnaround - let's hope it does.

[ajl]

Typical snow cover around here which has shrunk down this past week after a couple of nice days. Looking for a dry spring as have to seed land that was too wet to seed last year. Any amount of wet spring snow and much of that will not be seeded again. Winter snow is 100% useless and often detrimental. Snow forecast for here right now along with high wind so that will block yard and drive way. As for the cowboy that had the driest year in '17, you should find one with a longer memory. Year's like 2001 (or 02 depending on exact location) or 1988 come to mind as far as dry is concerned.

[farmaholic]

ajl, I made no reference to 2017 being the driest year. Otherwise I stand by what I said. And you're right regarding snow pack in years when there was adequate moisture going into winter with soil being frozen as hard as an impermeable rock and the snow melt just accumulates in low areas. I'm looking for a recharge and willing to seed around afew potholes to get it!

Reserve hay supplies will shrink if cattle can't be put out to grass until they can support grazing pressure.

I'm just happy I don't have the problem. But I can empathize/sympathize.

Lerner's precip map for the upcoming system improved for my area, time will tell.

[ajl]

I was referring to Mallee's post about the cowboy. Lots of land in this area did not get seeded due to last year's flooding and I had the seed in mud and the crop's a dud experience so a little dry doesn't bother me. When the tractor spins in front of the drill while seeded, you are seeding in mud. Those unseeded acres and seeded but flooded out after have propped the canola market this winter. Refer to below in the good news for canola post.

[farmaholic]

I was referring to Mallee's post about the cowboy. Lots of land in this area did not get seeded due to last year's flooding and I had the seed in mud and the crop's a dud experience so a little dry doesn't bother me. When the tractor spins in front of the drill while seeded, you are seeding in mud. Those unseeded acres and seeded but flooded out after have propped the canola market this winter. Refer to below in the good news for canola post.

Sorry ajl, I thought you were responding to my post😳. Seems everyone us always looking for something different when it comes to weather.

[grassfarmer]

As for the cowboy that had the driest year in '17, you should find one with a longer memory. Year's like 2001 (or 02 depending on exact location) or 1988 come to mind as far as dry is concerned.

81 years old, third generation - how much longer memory does he need LOL. There were some areas extremely dry in AB last year so I'm not questioning his observation.

Things are looking up in our forecast - 15 to 25cm across southern Manitoba Sun/Mon. Bring it on!

[grassfarmer]

Here you go Farma - you must be just about in the bullseye?

[farming101]

Today's forecast runs pushed the center west so that it will be right over Farma's place. Anywhere from 33-40 mm water equivalent could fall. Farma will be caught flat footed (didn't bother hooking up the blower and dozer blade this winter) and will be MIA from Agriville while he shovels out his yard and goes to the chiropractor.

[farmaholic]

Yup bullseye Grassy!

Im fully prepared 101, I have a strong back, a weak mind and dedicated to the job!

MIA sobering up in detox after celebrating....lol! I better stop counting chickens before they hatch.

[Guest]

Yup bullseye Grassy!

Im fully prepared 101, I have a strong back, a weak mind and dedicated to the job!

MIA sobering up in detox after celebrating....lol! I better stop counting chickens before they hatch.

hope you get it , and we get none