Dairy trade and NAFTA

[grassfarmer]

Excellent comments tymrfield. Supply management is morally indefensible. How can you ban 99.99% of the population from producing basic food stuffs?

100% of the population can own dairy cows and produce their own milk if they so desire. If you want to get into selling milk on a scale larger than this you play by the rules set by milk producers which were designed to produce a stable business model for all in the business. Get in, or don't get in - nobody is stopping you either way.

[Integrity_Farmer]

Total bullshit by the US and Trump "The OECD estimates American market price supports for dairy range between US$5.3 billion to $6.6 billion annually". US agribusiness wants to export their hormone/antibiotic contaminated milk to Canada. As a Canadian I value the quality Canadian milk I consume.
In Canada we don't have listeria in our poultry and eggs either.

[Oliver88]

Very fascinating situation for Mr. Dressup's caucus.
Who do they choose:
Eastern Canada Dairy Cartel or Eastern Canada Aluminum and Steel Unions????

Gerald Butts is likely checking into which industry has more voters.

[furrowtickler]

100% of the population can own dairy cows and produce their own milk if they so desire. If you want to get into selling milk on a scale larger than this you play by the rules set by milk producers which were designed to produce a stable business model for all in the business. Get in, or don't get in - nobody is stopping you either way.

Wrong , how do you get in if you can’t buy quota ? If your not already in the game you can’t afford to get in. Economics will kill you to get in fresh ... grab a pencil and paper . You need big money to get in and stay in.
Why are you not in it grass ? It’s a big mans game . Go to a Hutterite colony and see for yourself . Very few farmers , or anyone for that matter can even afford to remotely get in , let alone stay in that game . It’s like saying go into oil production, sure anyone can do that .

[grassfarmer]

Wrong , how do you get in if you can’t buy quota ? If your not already in the game you can’t afford to get in. Economics will kill you to get in fresh ... grab a pencil and paper . You need big money to get in and stay in.
Why are you not in it grass ? It’s a big mans game . Go to a Hutterite colony and see for yourself . Very few farmers , or anyone for that matter can even afford to remotely get in , let alone stay in that game . It’s like saying go into oil production, sure anyone can do that .

Never fancied dairy farming myself but I understand the economics of it. Absolutely you can afford to buy quota, if you are good at the business and pay it off over a number of years. Most producers buy some quota initially and expand by adding more. I've been on Hutterite colonies - most have fairly small dairies. On the other hand I know family farms with 500-800 dairy cows.

[furrowtickler]

Never fancied dairy farming myself but I understand the economics of it. Absolutely you can afford to buy quota, if you are good at the business and pay it off over a number of years. Most producers buy some quota initially and expand by adding more. I've been on Hutterite colonies - most have fairly small dairies. On the other hand I know family farms with 500-800 dairy cows.

So milk quota given to anyone at anytime?
One can just go and get milk quota and giver ?

[furrowtickler]

If so , why the quota ? If anyone can get in at anytime and produce more ?? Not sure why the quota then ?

[furrowtickler]

So I can just buy a milk quota from anyone and start givener ? You seem to imply it’s that easy .

[foragefarmer]

Trump know's what he's doing?

"Republican lawmakers urged Trump in recent weeks to reconsider his position, warning him that while the move would boost US steel and aluminum manufacturers, it would lead to increased costs for consumers of those materials and hurt some of the manufacturers he pledged to protect."

Why are so many members of the GOP against his move. Trade wars end badly every time. Here's what happen when Bush tried it

'For about a year after the tariff was imposed, steel industry employment stopped falling. Yay! Then the decline resumed amid a brewing global trade battle. Bush lifted the tariffs in December 2003. A few months after that, steel industry employment stopped falling again. So ... maybe tariffs don't work so well. And in any case, the number of jobs involved -- a few thousand amid total nonfarm payroll employment of about 130 million -- was quite small.'

All this for a 150,000 jobs in Steel and Aluminum. Jobs in these industries have been lost to automation not imports from other countries. All this from a guy who when bankrupt four times and is currently in business thanks to Putin.

[grassfarmer]

So I can just buy a milk quota from anyone and start givener ? You seem to imply it’s that easy .

Buy it on the quota exchange - retiring farmers or those getting out put it up for sale. You bid for it, it's like buying land in a way - giving you the right to produce except with SM there is an established price you will be paid for your milk. If you are a good dairy farmer you can be very profitable but some fail just like in other realms of agriculture.

[furrowtickler]

AJL, Is your concern for the steel industry or resentment of the dairy guys? I really am a free market guy but I gotta tell you if all our ag sectors were supply managed we'd all be happier farmers; shipping logistics, timing the market, guaranteed profit, guaranteed sale, increased price as costs go up etc. Easy to be jealous of their system, but I still don't want to milk cows. It is frustrating when we keep hearing about it with any trade or WTO talks I Know. But I think it's more of an easy scapegoat for the Americans, other than some cheese products and a bit of fluid milk that may move into GTA and Vancouver I can't see it being a huge market for them. Milk is heavy and perishable product to ship.

What you do need to think about is how many extra tax dollars you are prepared to send in to facilitate this change. If it does get axed, that quota will be compensated for by all of us, whether or not you believe it ever should have existed.

Crop production can not , ever , guarantee production or quality , thus its its a non issue .
Yes it would be “nice” but 100% not reality .... ever .

[Horse]

Buy it on the quota exchange - retiring farmers or those getting out put it up for sale. You bid for it, it's like buying land in a way - giving you the right to produce except with SM there is an established price you will be paid for your milk. If you are a good dairy farmer you can be very profitable but some fail just like in other realms of agriculture.

Grass farmer. How much of the price of a litre of milk goes to pay for quota that was given for free in the beginning, same for chicken and eggs, its all a gimme and should never be allowed to be added to cost of production.

[ajl]

Right now a US farmer in Wisconsin or Michigan get about $0.48 Cdn per litre of milk while on the Canadian side they receive $0.80. At that price, there is plenty of milk in the US. I have consumed dairy products in Canada, the US, and Mexico. Doesn't seem to be much different so not sure how SM is helping the Canadian consumer.

[GDR]

Right now a US farmer in Wisconsin or Michigan get about $0.48 Cdn per litre of milk while on the Canadian side they receive $0.80. At that price, there is plenty of milk in the US. I have consumed dairy products in Canada, the US, and Mexico. Doesn't seem to be much different so not sure how SM is helping the Canadian consumer.

AJL if you think there would be a huge drop on the price for milk at the grocery store you are dreaming. it doesn't work that way, milk is barely more than pop, similar price to juice, less than beer, retail prices will not change if wholesale price goes down and if it does it will not go down to the Wisconsin price otherwise there will be no dairy industry in Canada, cold and short growing season makes costs higher and returns lower for dairy cattle also.

If the dairy industry implodes as you seem to be hoping for there would be a whole bunch more acres freed up to grow more grain crops and a whole lot less buyers of feed grains. How's that gonna help your grain prices.

Milk in US contains BGH, a banned hormone in Canada. Up to you to decide good or bad but it's there.

As for helping the consumer, of course it does, Milk is a staple a steady supply of milk on the shelves is pretty important. Supply management is designed just like it sounds to keep from having over supply hurting farmers or under supply hurting consumers.

[GDR]

So I can just buy a milk quota from anyone and start givener ? You seem to imply it’s that easy .

Yes you can if you got the bucks, or it can be leased and there is a program to help new dairy farmers which gives them a number of years to buy quota but still produce. They also increase everyone's quota periodically as demand increases for milk. ( I assume they can contract in theory if demand slumps but don't really know)

No question to get in is millions of bucks for quota cows and barn but is it any different for any farm?

Don't really know why I'm defending SM cause I don't really care how it ends but it's not the big bad thing it's made out to be by some. (Other than being a trade irritant)