Canola not moving in sympathy with other markets today

[AlbertaFarmer5]

As of now, Soybeans are up >3%, meal up >3% and soyoil up >1% on the day, partly as a result of the prospective planting report. Canola is back to unchanged. Crush margins just increased yet again, and competition for US soy just decreased ( less acres than expected), so the only logical thing to do is sell or short canola.

Corn up >3%, oats up, 2 of 3 wheat's up, crude up. So who what is holding back canola, other than the ongoing lack of shipping?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Judging by the lack of responses, I will apologize for trying to start a conversation about marketing in a marketing thread.

Please feel free to return to your regularly scheduled bashing of Trudeau/Trump/Notley/Harper/Ritz/Wynne/AGW/Railways/Farm equipment manufacturers/Input suppliers/SF3/Grassfarmer, and the associated name calling. Sorry for the interruption.

[Goodtime]

Maybe some of us work.

[Guest]

the big jump in soybeans has everyone in a tiff
usda report not working well for the buyers this time

[samhill]

All I could offer you AF5 is canola is 40-44% oil so the 1% increase in soy oil doesn’t affect the price
as much.
Poor excuse, but ....

[malleefarmer]

Spring wheat got hammered on extra acres right?

What are major spring wheat growing areas obviously canada

[helmsdale]

Spring wheat got hammered on extra acres right?

What are major spring wheat growing areas obviously canada

Spring Wheat: 2017 actual to 2018 Intended
Montana stayed the same at 2.5M acres.
Minnesota: Increased from 1.16M to 1.6M acres.
North Dakota: Increased from 5.35M to 6.4M acres.
South Dakota: Increase from 970K to 1.05M acres.
Washington: Increase from 495K to 530K Acres.
US Total: Increase from 11.009M to 12.627M, or 115% of last year

Durum:
Montana: Decrease from 890K to 850K. Still higher than 2016 at 780K
North Dakota: Decrease from 1.26M to 1.00M. Much lower than 2016 at 1.46M
US total: Decrease from 2.307M to 2.004M or 87% of 2017, and 83% of 2016

Canola:
US total: 2.076M, compared to 2.077M in 2017 and 1.714M in 2016.

Chickpeas:
Up 7% over last year, and 204% over 2016. 2018=665K, 2017=618.8K, 2016=325.3K

Lentils:
down 28% from last year, and 15% from 2016. 2018=791K, 2017=1.104M, 2018=791K

Peas:
down 20% from last year, and 34% from 2016. 2018= 908K, 2017=1.128M, 2016=1.383M

[macdon02]

Lol I'll throw it out there, fundamentals don't matter and the canola market runs on a predetermined cycle.... The panic cycle wasn't today.

[farmaholic]

Lol I'll throw it out there, fundamentals don't matter and the canola market runs on a predetermined cycle.... The panic cycle wasn't today.

Isn't that my job?

....moving markets with intentions, speculation and expectations.

[GDR]

As of now, Soybeans are up >3%, meal up >3% and soyoil up >1% on the day, partly as a result of the prospective planting report. Canola is back to unchanged. Crush margins just increased yet again, and competition for US soy just decreased ( less acres than expected), so the only logical thing to do is sell or short canola.

Corn up >3%, oats up, 2 of 3 wheat's up, crude up. So who what is holding back canola, other than the ongoing lack of shipping?

You must have forgot the rules of canola trading:

1. Soyoil goes up canola goes sideways.

2. Soymeal goes up canola goes sideways.

3. Beans go up canola goes sideways.

4. When Palm oil, soy oil, meal, beans or crude oil goes down even a little bit. Holy shit the world is gonna drown in oil, better sell canola limit down!


But I do think that canola has created some level of independence from soybeans and the last year or 2, hasen't been moving same direction all the time