Canola not moving in sympathy with other markets today

[AlbertaFarmer5]

As of now, Soybeans are up >3%, meal up >3% and soyoil up >1% on the day, partly as a result of the prospective planting report. Canola is back to unchanged. Crush margins just increased yet again, and competition for US soy just decreased ( less acres than expected), so the only logical thing to do is sell or short canola.

Corn up >3%, oats up, 2 of 3 wheat's up, crude up. So who what is holding back canola, other than the ongoing lack of shipping?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Judging by the lack of responses, I will apologize for trying to start a conversation about marketing in a marketing thread.

Please feel free to return to your regularly scheduled bashing of Trudeau/Trump/Notley/Harper/Ritz/Wynne/AGW/Railways/Farm equipment manufacturers/Input suppliers/SF3/Grassfarmer, and the associated name calling. Sorry for the interruption.

[Goodtime]

Maybe some of us work.

[Guest]

the big jump in soybeans has everyone in a tiff
usda report not working well for the buyers this time

[samhill]

All I could offer you AF5 is canola is 40-44% oil so the 1% increase in soy oil doesn’t affect the price
as much.
Poor excuse, but ....

[malleefarmer]

Spring wheat got hammered on extra acres right?

What are major spring wheat growing areas obviously canada

[helmsdale]

Spring wheat got hammered on extra acres right?

What are major spring wheat growing areas obviously canada

Spring Wheat: 2017 actual to 2018 Intended
Montana stayed the same at 2.5M acres.
Minnesota: Increased from 1.16M to 1.6M acres.
North Dakota: Increased from 5.35M to 6.4M acres.
South Dakota: Increase from 970K to 1.05M acres.
Washington: Increase from 495K to 530K Acres.
US Total: Increase from 11.009M to 12.627M, or 115% of last year

Durum:
Montana: Decrease from 890K to 850K. Still higher than 2016 at 780K
North Dakota: Decrease from 1.26M to 1.00M. Much lower than 2016 at 1.46M
US total: Decrease from 2.307M to 2.004M or 87% of 2017, and 83% of 2016

Canola:
US total: 2.076M, compared to 2.077M in 2017 and 1.714M in 2016.

Chickpeas:
Up 7% over last year, and 204% over 2016. 2018=665K, 2017=618.8K, 2016=325.3K

Lentils:
down 28% from last year, and 15% from 2016. 2018=791K, 2017=1.104M, 2018=791K

Peas:
down 20% from last year, and 34% from 2016. 2018= 908K, 2017=1.128M, 2016=1.383M

[macdon02]

Lol I'll throw it out there, fundamentals don't matter and the canola market runs on a predetermined cycle.... The panic cycle wasn't today.

[farmaholic]

Lol I'll throw it out there, fundamentals don't matter and the canola market runs on a predetermined cycle.... The panic cycle wasn't today.

Isn't that my job?

....moving markets with intentions, speculation and expectations.

[GDR]

As of now, Soybeans are up >3%, meal up >3% and soyoil up >1% on the day, partly as a result of the prospective planting report. Canola is back to unchanged. Crush margins just increased yet again, and competition for US soy just decreased ( less acres than expected), so the only logical thing to do is sell or short canola.

Corn up >3%, oats up, 2 of 3 wheat's up, crude up. So who what is holding back canola, other than the ongoing lack of shipping?

You must have forgot the rules of canola trading:

1. Soyoil goes up canola goes sideways.

2. Soymeal goes up canola goes sideways.

3. Beans go up canola goes sideways.

4. When Palm oil, soy oil, meal, beans or crude oil goes down even a little bit. Holy shit the world is gonna drown in oil, better sell canola limit down!


But I do think that canola has created some level of independence from soybeans and the last year or 2, hasen't been moving same direction all the time

[AlbertaFarmer5]

You must have forgot the rules of canola trading:

1. Soyoil goes up canola goes sideways.

2. Soymeal goes up canola goes sideways.

3. Beans go up canola goes sideways.

4. When Palm oil, soy oil, meal, beans or crude oil goes down even a little bit. Holy shit the world is gonna drown in oil, better sell canola limit down!


But I do think that canola has created some level of independence from soybeans and the last year or 2, hasen't been moving same direction all the time

I'd been formulating the same rule set in recent years. But as you noted, it has taken on a mind of it's own lately, most days, I can't find any correlation with it's moves with any of the associated commodities or currencies. It is almost like supply and demand have something to do with it, hard to believe, I know.

[jdepape]

I haven’t been here for some time but I’ll bite.
We saw canola move up more than $6/t after the report. In my view, that was mostly “holy shit, I didn’t expect that!” short-covering. Once it was done, we watched to see if there was any commercial consumptive buying. But with record amounts of canola in the system for this time of the year, and rail transport problems still not corrected, who’s gonna sell it?
The track Vancouver basis remains firm and the country basis remains under pressure, widening the export spread (remember 2013-14?). Remember, the canola futures contract has delivery in the prairies so it is not a good reflection of Vancouver/offshore markets. There may be interest from offshore – due to support from outside markets – but if you can’t get it there, you may not be interested in selling it.
And, since things have been congested for some time, I’m hearing there is still good sales pressure from farmers wanting to move canola, providing selling pressure on futures (as hedges). Current country basis (under pressure) is a good indication of that theory.
And crush margins (in USD) didn’t change that much.

All in all, until we get canola moving better, I won't be surprised that canola is not keeping pace with beans etc.

[Guest]

lucky we have all this govt funded transparency now to work with