sheepwheat onwards and upwards

[malleefarmer]

There seems in the short term to be nothing stopping the market from continuing upward. The rate of the increase and the record levels that it continues to move upward from, is alarming. The market is being driven predominantly by indent order buyers securing some volume for prompt delivery and others simply trying to ‘pick up’ in very small volume sales. Quality is not a determining factor at the moment. We see best value in the best fine wool which haven’t moved so much in recent weeks. Historically these beter types are also the least likely to react downwards in the event of any market correction.

AWEX INDICATOR
compared with 24/05/2018
Indicator Close Change%
EASTERN 2027 +2.22
If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official web site http://www.awex.com.au

SCHNEIDER INDICATORS
compared with24/05/2018
Indicator Close Change %
15 MICRON (*) - -
16 MICRON 3139 -0.13
17 MICRON 2764 +1.54
18 MICRON 2423 +1.68
19 MICRON 2264 +3.52
(*) Marketed from September to March
Each indicator is expressed by a number representing a market quotation for a selected range of types and is not a price expression and it's not influenced by currency fluctuations.

Wool indicators are anyway based on Australian Dollar.



Forecast
With no sale in Fremantle next week, this will only add to the upward pressure already on the market. Some ‘buy at best’ instructions to secure the necessary volume for production are dictating the market direction. We have just the 6 selling weeks before auctions close for the mid-year 3-week recess. Traditionally the opening sale in July has a larger volume selection but we understand from most brokers that is less likely this year. Even if it were a little larger, it’s unlikely to impact on the current strong interest for greasy wool. Buyers will be aware of the pending July recess ensuring they have sufficient wool to carry them through. Reports from Fremantle that supply could be down in Western Australia by more than 10% due to drought. This is adding to the same concerns in the eastern states as sheep numbers are being reduced ahead of what is expected to be a difficult winter with little ground cover for sheep feed. Added to this is the increasing trend of 6 month shearing that will alter the traditional flow of best wools available through our spring. There is no doubt that it will be an interesting 6 months ahead, if it wasn't already 'interesting' enough.

SELLING CENTRES FOR WEEK 48
Market Sale Offered Sold Passed-in
North S48 10477 10311 1.6%
South M48 15822 15410 2.6%
West F48 4140 4008 3.2%

[malleefarmer]

Last line sheepwheat billions!!

AWIS WOOL MARKET REVIEW

Week Ending 1 June 2018 (Week 48)

The AWEX EMI reached the 2000¢ mark this week when it finished 44¢ higher (+2.2%) at 2027¢ in Australian currency

and 33¢ higher (+2.2%) in US currency at sales in Sydney, Melbourne and Fremantle this week.

The closing EMI has risen by 55¢, 52¢, 40¢ and 44¢ over the last four sales

The closing value of 1533¢ in US currency was also a record, being 18¢ above the previous high of 1515¢ in June 2011

when the US Exchange Rate was 105.5¢.

The Fremantle market was very strong in a one day sale on Tuesday, when the WMI rose by 48¢, almost double the rises of

26¢ and 29¢ in Sydney and Melbourne on the same day.

30,439 bales were on offer nationally, compared with 30,053 bales last sale. 2.3% of the offering was passed in.

AWEX reports that the value of the wool sold was $65.7 million ($2,210 per bale – another record), taking the season total to

$3.2 billion.

[hobbyfrmr]

There seems in the short term to be nothing stopping the market from continuing upward. The rate of the increase and the record levels that it continues to move upward from, is alarming. The market is being driven predominantly by indent order buyers securing some volume for prompt delivery and others simply trying to ‘pick up’ in very small volume sales. Quality is not a determining factor at the moment. We see best value in the best fine wool which haven’t moved so much in recent weeks. Historically these beter types are also the least likely to react downwards in the event of any market correction.

AWEX INDICATOR
compared with 24/05/2018
Indicator Close Change%
EASTERN 2027 +2.22
If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official web site http://www.awex.com.au

SCHNEIDER INDICATORS
compared with24/05/2018
Indicator Close Change %
15 MICRON (*) - -
16 MICRON 3139 -0.13
17 MICRON 2764 +1.54
18 MICRON 2423 +1.68
19 MICRON 2264 +3.52
(*) Marketed from September to March
Each indicator is expressed by a number representing a market quotation for a selected range of types and is not a price expression and it's not influenced by currency fluctuations.

Wool indicators are anyway based on Australian Dollar.



Forecast
With no sale in Fremantle next week, this will only add to the upward pressure already on the market. Some ‘buy at best’ instructions to secure the necessary volume for production are dictating the market direction. We have just the 6 selling weeks before auctions close for the mid-year 3-week recess. Traditionally the opening sale in July has a larger volume selection but we understand from most brokers that is less likely this year. Even if it were a little larger, it’s unlikely to impact on the current strong interest for greasy wool. Buyers will be aware of the pending July recess ensuring they have sufficient wool to carry them through. Reports from Fremantle that supply could be down in Western Australia by more than 10% due to drought. This is adding to the same concerns in the eastern states as sheep numbers are being reduced ahead of what is expected to be a difficult winter with little ground cover for sheep feed. Added to this is the increasing trend of 6 month shearing that will alter the traditional flow of best wools available through our spring. There is no doubt that it will be an interesting 6 months ahead, if it wasn't already 'interesting' enough.

SELLING CENTRES FOR WEEK 48
Market Sale Offered Sold Passed-in
North S48 10477 10311 1.6%
South M48 15822 15410 2.6%
West F48 4140 4008 3.2%

This may sound like silly advice but remember to sell some wool at these high prices.
I will guarantee there will be a farmer with a shed full of wool when these prices correct downward.

[malleefarmer]

Its a bit tricky foward selling wool fowards are always at a huge discount to spot market shall we say weak basis.

Most expect it to flatten out without falling as the australian sheep growing areas are almost in serious drought wool cut will down for another 12 months as will be numbers.