Commodity Markets Send Warnings

[macdon02]

Errol when a t bond or any debt instrument gets redeemed what happens to it? I'm guessing converted to USD cash? I don't completely understand the mechanical process of bonds being converted but isn't absolutely every futures, or for that matter any instrument at cbot, nymex, you name it valued in usd? I just think there's days when we forget a reserve currency is reserve for a reason, there's no alternative. Until we get a crash in USD it's the only game in town. Metals are shiny and heavy but only an individual that has zero desire to leave home can own it. Frigging metal detectors at airports .... that sign that wants me to declare $10k in cash on the way home cramps my style but it's all about tax these days. Guess what I'm saying is until we get an '85 event where USD goes to the moon we won't get the crash. Till then own USD... dyodd yada yada

[ajl]

Trump now threatening China with $200 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports tonite. Xi is expected to respond quickly.

China and Japan are now dumping U.S. debt rapidly. China apparently has sold $6 billion in U.S. treasuries, Japan has sold about $12 billion. Both countries still hold in excess of 1 trillion each in U.S. treasuries. Fed itself is trying to sell treasuries. A freaking gong show in bond markets appears approaching.

Stock market fallout can’t be avoided (IMO) . . . .

A check of the 10 yr bond yield indicates otherwise. Rate is actually going down not up. Commodity prices are under pressure due to a strengthening $USD just like the mid 80's. The US will have tariff revenues now to service debt with so what the Chinese do with bond holdings is irrelevant. Not what the anti Trump talking heads are sawing granted.

[errolanderson]

A check of the 10 yr bond yield indicates otherwise. Rate is actually going down not up. Commodity prices are under pressure due to a strengthening $USD just like the mid 80's. The US will have tariff revenues now to service debt with so what the Chinese do with bond holdings is irrelevant. Not what the anti Trump talking heads are sawing granted.

Gain in U.S. tariff revenues pales in-comparison to the economic damage now being done to the American economy . . . .

[ajl]

Pretty much the only risk in the US market is being short in it. Can't seem to get a sell off to last long enough to lift shorts. I have a couple of minor short positions there. Contrast to Chinese markets. No trouble being short there. Never underestimate the determination of the Chinese to play a loosing hand for a long time though. China needs to ship more product to the US because their economy is sinking and needs to generate more $USD.

[beaverdam]

$CND barely hanging on to $0.75 this morning, enjoy the decline, knowing that your assist wealth is evaporating.

[HappyFarmer]

Group . . . Falling commodity prices are sending a warning to markets (IMO).

Global equities face a critical week as the U.S. and China now appear fully engaged in a trade war.

Hone your marketing skills. World trade is now a nasty place for the unsuspecting . . . .

We shall see.....

So does this mean that China needs less corn, soybeans, cotton, pork etc etc etc??????I think not.

Could be a huge opportunity for CDN farmers IF tariffs go on.......I HIGHLY doubt it ever will but we shall see. The US needs China and vice versa....they will get it figured out. This is all part of the negotiating process.

The tariffs....coupled with the market perception of perfect conditions in North America one cant be that surprised by this market action. Do you really think in the near term the market is going to price in 200 Bu/acre Iowa Corn????? I would do doubt it.

The corn balance sheet looks pretty interest. Its late June and you push that U.S. corn yield down to 171 ish things get rather interesting.

#feellikebuyingDECcorn....

[burnt]

We shall see.....

So does this mean that China needs less corn, soybeans, cotton, pork etc etc etc??????I think not.

Could be a huge opportunity for CDN farmers IF tariffs go on.......I HIGHLY doubt it ever will but we shall see. The US needs China and vice versa....they will get it figured out. This is all part of the negotiating process.

The tariffs....coupled with the market perception of perfect conditions in North America one cant be that surprised by this market action. Do you really think in the near term the market is going to price in 200 Bu/acre Iowa Corn????? I would do doubt it.

The corn balance sheet looks pretty interest. Its late June and you push that U.S. corn yield down to 171 ish things get rather interesting.

#feellikebuyingDECcorn....

Big bullies duking it out.

Meantime, lots of little guys get trampled.

[errolanderson]

Even though the drums were pounding just two (2) weeks ago, a Bank of Canada July rate hike now looks out-of-the-question (IMO).

If Canada's economy heads for recession due to Trump tariffs and deflating commodity prices, BOC rate cuts might actually be in-store later this year (IMO) . . . .

[quadtrac]

Seems like a good buying opportunity to me.

[Crestliner]

Oh all the opportunities that all the political machinations bring about....very exciting time to be alive and working. There is money to be made from both the long and short side. Watch yellow pea prices go up....negative crop reports in Canada and tariffs on US beans....China will get real friendly with Canada...good for Canadian canola too.