Commodity Markets Send Warnings

[errolanderson]

Group . . . Falling commodity prices are sending a warning to markets (IMO).

Global equities face a critical week as the U.S. and China now appear fully engaged in a trade war.

Hone your marketing skills. World trade is now a nasty place for the unsuspecting . . . .

[ajl]

Party like its 1985. Need to shine the resume too in order to get a better off farm job.

[checking]

No honing.

I'll just go back on "lock down" until the silly seasons are over. Let's see which country "blinks" first.

[MBgrower]

How many $100/acre rental agreements are going to get renegotiated this fall? $4.50 wheat appears to be on the way.

[SASKFARMER3]

Ah it’s such a joke if a general rain doesn’t happen soon **** it won’t matter what wheat and canola will be worth. It’s not perfect world

[farmaholic]

How many $100/acre rental agreements are going to get renegotiated this fall? $4.50 wheat appears to be on the way.

Around here there are some pea and lentil crops that are in trouble from the recent rains(too much in a short period of time) and canola that got off to a bad start from being too dry in the beginning....both those situations are going to make paying those high rents onerous/burdensome.

How much $/ac are you satisifed with for all the work and risk you take? Every crop type returns a different net result...do you average a three to five year rental term and rotation? Does that mean some crops don't have positive net returns during the lease term?

Good thing farming is low risk for the Primary Producer.

[malleefarmer]

Beans bearing the brunt of fall out?

[bucket]

200,000 dollar a quarter land on borrowed money is 10000 a quarter in interest plus the principal plus inputs.


On what might be a 30 bpa canola crop....chances are my old math tells me there is a world of hurt on its way. Without a rain.

Funny thing is all the industries that are looking for support can make a tonne of steel no matter the weather,,,cars get made ,,,,cows get milked and money comes in even it doesn't rain....

Then there are the provincially funded irrigators that are getting a 150 dollar interest gift for the infrastructure that pays nothing back to the province for their investment ...

and the grain farmer that hasn't seen a rain for quite while that is told to burn equity.

[errolanderson]

Trump now threatening China with $200 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports tonite. Xi is expected to respond quickly.

China and Japan are now dumping U.S. debt rapidly. China apparently has sold $6 billion in U.S. treasuries, Japan has sold about $12 billion. Both countries still hold in excess of 1 trillion each in U.S. treasuries. Fed itself is trying to sell treasuries. A freaking gong show in bond markets appears approaching.

Stock market fallout can’t be avoided (IMO) . . . .

[agstar77]

Bring on a Depression!!! Thank the bad hairdo!!

[macdon02]

Errol when a t bond or any debt instrument gets redeemed what happens to it? I'm guessing converted to USD cash? I don't completely understand the mechanical process of bonds being converted but isn't absolutely every futures, or for that matter any instrument at cbot, nymex, you name it valued in usd? I just think there's days when we forget a reserve currency is reserve for a reason, there's no alternative. Until we get a crash in USD it's the only game in town. Metals are shiny and heavy but only an individual that has zero desire to leave home can own it. Frigging metal detectors at airports .... that sign that wants me to declare $10k in cash on the way home cramps my style but it's all about tax these days. Guess what I'm saying is until we get an '85 event where USD goes to the moon we won't get the crash. Till then own USD... dyodd yada yada

[ajl]

Trump now threatening China with $200 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports tonite. Xi is expected to respond quickly.

China and Japan are now dumping U.S. debt rapidly. China apparently has sold $6 billion in U.S. treasuries, Japan has sold about $12 billion. Both countries still hold in excess of 1 trillion each in U.S. treasuries. Fed itself is trying to sell treasuries. A freaking gong show in bond markets appears approaching.

Stock market fallout can’t be avoided (IMO) . . . .

A check of the 10 yr bond yield indicates otherwise. Rate is actually going down not up. Commodity prices are under pressure due to a strengthening $USD just like the mid 80's. The US will have tariff revenues now to service debt with so what the Chinese do with bond holdings is irrelevant. Not what the anti Trump talking heads are sawing granted.

[errolanderson]

A check of the 10 yr bond yield indicates otherwise. Rate is actually going down not up. Commodity prices are under pressure due to a strengthening $USD just like the mid 80's. The US will have tariff revenues now to service debt with so what the Chinese do with bond holdings is irrelevant. Not what the anti Trump talking heads are sawing granted.

Gain in U.S. tariff revenues pales in-comparison to the economic damage now being done to the American economy . . . .

[ajl]

Pretty much the only risk in the US market is being short in it. Can't seem to get a sell off to last long enough to lift shorts. I have a couple of minor short positions there. Contrast to Chinese markets. No trouble being short there. Never underestimate the determination of the Chinese to play a loosing hand for a long time though. China needs to ship more product to the US because their economy is sinking and needs to generate more $USD.

[beaverdam]

$CND barely hanging on to $0.75 this morning, enjoy the decline, knowing that your assist wealth is evaporating.