UGLY

[agstar77]

That is the description of crop conditions in my area. Wheat is short thin and heading. Canola is short and bolting.Soybeans are stressed. It will be a bad year for crop insurance.

[bucket]

And just think if we were a steel or aluminum company how much support would have been pledged already to help the industry survive....

What pledge has any government given us in the wake of a disaster?

Just saying....primary priducers will need support this year....due to shitty crops and increased tariffs...

Tariffs should be treated the same no matter the industry.....

[agstar77]

The U.S. is looking at payments to offset losses from Chinese tariffs.

[Sheepwheat]

Crop insurance is a good thing in failures to have. If you spend above your crop insurance level of coverage, that is not the governments fault, is it? In my despair of the wet years from hell, crop insurance saved my skin. It will be there if it is too dry as well. Or do we need a direct payment? Lol. Time to take responsibility for our own actions.

Edit to add. I feel for you. It is rough when this early you write off a crop pretty much. I know what it is like too well. It makes for a wicked long summer and fall, just waiting and knowing you are in a screwy situation of just waiting. The year I had 6 bushel canola that I had to watch all summer, and then wait all winter before I could make a claim even to know where I would be at was just pure pain. Last year, by now I knew my canary was a disaster, and waiting on a pathetic, drowned out (3.5 bushel an acre) crop was misery. So, I feel your pain, and do not mean to come across as snide by offering the hope that crop insurance can give.

Best wishes, it ain’t fun.

[bucket]

When the auto industry , the steel industry, bombardier , and others that self regulate take responsibility for their actions maybe agriculture should then be told to as well....until then all industries should have the same level of support as to its value to the country...

It seems we are left out of the value chain and yet it all starts here.

[ajl]

Around here Edmonton region things are looking fairly good right now but starting to get dry. Last year, due to swamp conditions in early spring, I declared next year country before a seed hit the ground. Seed in mud crop is a dud and that is exactly how it turned out. So if it looks like crap now, you don't need the bin dealer. Canola can still surprise you as I have seen it turn around at this stage if conditions improve. I have seen it turn around in both dry and wet conditions if it improves.

[helmsdale]

Some of the winged crops suffering chemical carryover around here look as bad or in some cases worse than last year. Effects of a drought year, just like a flood year, dont necessarily just end...

Durum on lentil stubble sprayed with oddysey last looks like SHIT! Have a neighbor with a sizable durum field that will struggle to do 15-20 even if it rains its ass off from now on. Have 80ac myself that has 1/2 the top end yield potential of the 80ac right beside it. yay.

[farmaholic]

The Governor, Mother Nature, has taken us off death row.....there will be a crop here. But I'm thinking even though we got a stay of execution, she will expose me to other forms of torture and punishment for my "life sentence". And at anytime she can threaten me with execution again. I'm thinking she has a mood disorder!

[helmsdale]

Did a large tour around the block today down to med hat and back home. UGLY might be too strong of a word, but barely on life support is probably more apt. Most everything I saw in SE alberta is thin, and patchy. Obviously some areas worse than others, and some very small parcels that looked quite well. I consider myself blessed when looking around.

What I saw:
-emergence of shallow seeded oilseeds ranges from less than adequate, to a guaranteed crop insurance claim. Many large areas in fields look to have nothing growing on them. Im thinking that rain doesnt help that now. Likely swelled the seed and died. If i didn't see seeds coming up in very deliberate seed rows, I would have thought that many fields were chemfallow and just had a bad volunteer problem. They only canola field I've seen that still has respectable potential was stuffed in by my neighbor. Most look hopelessly beyond repair. I cannot say I've seen a decent mustard crop anywhere in my travels. I thought that mine looked tougher than I would like considering what I think have been respectable conditions. Aside from 2-3 stages that are likely 10-14 days from best to worst I consider myself blessed as i'd feel safe betting that 95% of it is up and going. Many that I seen are 30-60% bare with no small plants coming and the stuff that is up and going, starting to bolt. If southern sk looks similar, perhaps there are marketing opportunities for uncontracted mustard going forward?

-emergence of cereals is surprisingly poor. Many fields are abnormally thin, to very thin. It doesn't really seem to be a patchy emergence thing like the oilseeds, but rather field wide in most cases. Plants that did make it, are generally of average to slightly below average height, with a few pushing heads. In the majority of areas that I travelled, cereals are in shot blade and you can still see last years stubble throughout the whole field from the highway. The worst fields, you can watch rabbits hump on the hillsides at a mile... Many locally have been talking about chemical residue carryover from last years droughty conditions, but that can't possibly explain the near universal consistency of thinned out stands everywhere I drove.

-emergence of pulses seems good to excellent, but peas are short. More lentils in the neighborhood than I was expecting with known current export challenges.

-pasture and hayland in my neighborhood, and to the SW of me seem to be doing suprisingly well, considering the conditions of many of the surrounding crops. Hay is starting to go down, and with smaller machines you can still see the swaths unlike some years around here. Cows are not just lingering in the low spots to find green grass... Pasture from Medicine Hat to the NE up through to Acadia Valley looks to be going backwards, much like many of the crops that are starting to show the telltale blue drought stress.

[helmsdale]

Also drove around and checked on some of my own with a garden spade and alot of walking. Some of the neighbors cereals are starting to turn blue and leaves are curling. Some neighbors have adhorent damage from herbicide carryover. So much so, that they are a guaranteed crop insurance claim even if the stars align.

In my cereals, the bottom leaves are starting to drop off. Tassles on my durum are starting to push out of the sheath. Considering the thinner than anticipated stand, I was thinking the other plants would be doing better than they are with decreased competition. Pulled quite a few heads out of the sheath and was surprised to see that they are quite small. Some as little as 5 rows, the longest and rarest had 8. Flag and top leaf still appear healthy and vibrant for now. Top 6" is nearly dry. Roots are trying to dig in.

Lentils are doing their thing. And probably can survive just fine for another 7-10 days before moisture pressure starts to kick in.

Peas are just starting to flower, but have quit reaching skyward except for low spots, water runs, and west facing slopes of hills where more snow layed this winter. Nodulation is decent, and plant looks healthy, but having a hard time sourcing necessary water to keep growing. Top 6" is nearly dry.

Mustard as said previously has germinated well, majority has cabbaged, and first out of the ground is flowering. First seeded mustard field is pushing 35-40% flower.

In all the cases, the garden spade was hard to get in! Considering we've had 1.25" in the last 12 days I was surprised to see that it was ALL gone! If timely rain does not show up in the next couple days, it's shaping up to be a repeat of last year without the subsoil moisture reserve.

All in all, it was a little sobering walking fields. I had thought that there was a little more potential out there than there is. Best case scenario if the stars align is for an average to possibly slightly above average yield. If no moisture in the next couple days, and the heat returns there are going to be some VERY long faces around here when combines start to roll.