Money in Bank vs Owning land? I think the tides have turned.

[grassfarmer]

......50% drop in value coming......

There are families that have sat out of the land market for decades or even generations saying that - they're still waiting.

[Klause]

There are families that have sat out of the land market for decades or even generations saying that - they're still waiting.

Bullshit.


This isn't Europe.

And you haven't been here long enough to remember the early 2000s or the late 80s.(I wasn't here for the 80s either)

[grassfarmer]

I've been here since 2000 and nothing dramatic happened then to affect us one way or another.

Are you going to cash in your chips and move on before the "big crash" then?

If grain prices go down in SK due to a Trump embargo or some other crisis land prices won't halve - do you know how much Swiss guys sell land for - per square meter?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

That's a given. Not a chance.


50% drop in value coming.


That's not necessarily a drop in $/ac.

We could easily see land drop 50% in USD and still appreciate in CAD. As grass farmer points out, lots of farmers and investors will see value in that, even just as a currency hedge.

[GDR]

Been debating the asset mix myself lately. Problem is with land there is too much emotion in the equation not just economics. I would be further ahead likely to quit farming and either rent out or sell and invest but problem is i dont want too.

I have been dealing on a piece of land for a couple years and just the last few days looking like its gonna happen. All the negativity on Agriville & general news and Trump tarriff BS all gives me second thoughts but her is my thoughts:

Land likely will drop to some extent, I doubt half. But you still have the land, other than through default to thw bank no one can take it away from you and will always have decent value. Someday will be worth more than you laid of it drops.

If you got $$ in stocks and shit hits the fan the decrease in value is just gone, they may regain value if you hold them long enough but more likely some will just evaporate through bankruptcy etc.

Cash or fixed term stuff might be safe but rates are low, devaluation because of currency and inflation pretty likely.

Id rather hold land than other investments, either that or sell out completely and go where the wind takes me. I think its blowing to the land of bikinis and beer whever that is.

SF3 Use of professionals is good and important, not always easy to tell who the good ones are until its too late. I am too much of a control freak and dont do enough like you suggest. Human nature makes us beleive that anyone selling a service is taking advantage of us and our opportunity to benefit themselves and thays not usually true.

[ajl]

Could have sold land in 2013 for $USD and be ahead now. Land in western Canuckistan has only maintained or increased (depending on area) because of the 30% decrease in value of the loon since 2013. Agree with AB5 that it could still increase in loonie terms while decreasing in $usd as the loonie becomes largely irrelevant like the Mexican peso. Good land around here still brings the same as it has for the last 5 years but poorer stuff has been dropping. Thousands of acres in this county are unseeded this summer as they don't have a solvent renter and the owners are too old to find a new one. Growing volunteer canola and weeds. This land will hit the market as their owners die off. There is land here listed with a real estate agent for more than two years. The seller won't budge on price and there are no buyers where they are at.

[Klause]

I've been here since 2000 and nothing dramatic happened then to affect us one way or another.

Are you going to cash in your chips and move on before the "big crash" then?

If grain prices go down in SK due to a Trump embargo or some other crisis land prices won't halve - do you know how much Swiss guys sell land for - per square meter?

Land in Argentina is 10,000 cad a ha.


Third world country.


Trump isn't a concern. If we can move product to market and nhody wants to buy over sprayed over priced crop (look what happened to durum, peas, lentils) the land will have no value.


Look at the graph. History is doomed to repeat and they are making more farmland every day. Land closer to markets and far more productive than semi arid prairie.


If 2000-2005 didn't ring any bells your head is buried in too much sand.


Ask yourself this. Why do companies like Olam, that operate in Africa, south America, Russia, Europe Asia, and the USA completely ignore Canada.


Canada... "The best regulatory environment to extract maximum profit from primary producers" (direct quote from the CEO of a major "industry" player)

[farmaholic]

Sometimes I think the fewer hands that touch your investments the better off you are and "hopefully" more of the return left for the guy risking the capital.....not the guys "selling" the instrument or "playing" with YOUR money!

I don't have the knowledge, skill or time to flip shit around so I have to.....

I self direct my TFSA but only hold one solid dividend paying blue chip stock.

RRSP...RBC Dominion Securities

And the farm in the Slum of the Ghetto is managed by me, no wonder I can't get ahead.

[farming101]

Read this somewhere or the other,

It's not so much the return on investment, as it is the return OF investment

[foragefarmer]

GDR

"If you got $$ in stocks and shit hits the fan the decrease in value is just gone, they may regain value if you hold them long enough but more likely some will just evaporate through bankruptcy etc."

I am sure you've heard of Warren Buffet, how long has he been buying and holding stocks? What is he worth now? The key is good blue chips that pay dividends, they won't be evaporating through bankruptcy. Of coarse markets go up and down but if you want to try and time the market you'll definitely get eaten alive.

Look at the the Dow from Mach 2009 to now, greatest bull run ever. Ajl, and Erolandson have been crying the sky is falling for years. They may be right one day, but if they've been following their own advise, to bad for them is all I can say. Same goes for farm land in Canada straight up in value.

Klaus, yes land prices may drop but how long has that tune been played for? I really think you should make that move to Argentina it sound like a good fit for you in all seriousness.