Money in Bank vs Owning land? I think the tides have turned.

[Klause]

Whooppee doo looks like on your graph the average dropped from @$470 to @450 and then climbed back to $460 over a 5 year period. Big drama.

Umm... I was using it as an example of what can happen in the prairies, and how much pain it can inflict.

Canada is bigger than MB/AB/SK...


From '81 to '93 land lost over $600/acre... 65%.


Regardless, seems to be lost on you and forage that land is already dropping in Canada... Think about it, you'll figure it out. LOL. (hint... a sheet of aspenite went from $5.77 a sheet in 2012 to $18.96 a sheet today).


BTW, the crash in urban real estate is going to be far worse than in Ag.

[bigcoupee]

GDR

"If you got $$ in stocks and shit hits the fan the decrease in value is just gone, they may regain value if you hold them long enough but more likely some will just evaporate through bankruptcy etc."

I am sure you've heard of Warren Buffet, how long has he been buying and holding stocks? What is he worth now? The key is good blue chips that pay dividends, they won't be evaporating through bankruptcy. Of coarse markets go up and down but if you want to try and time the market you'll definitely get eaten alive.

Look at the the Dow from Mach 2009 to now, greatest bull run ever. Ajl, and Erolandson have been crying the sky is falling for years. They may be right one day, but if they've been following their own advise, to bad for them is all I can say. Same goes for farm land in Canada straight up in value.

Klaus, yes land prices may drop but how long has that tune been played for? I really think you should make that move to Argentina it sound like a good fit for you in all seriousness.

If SHTF you think your electronic property title you hold of the crown will mean anything to anyone. The natives were technically correct you can never truly own land. Just try not paying your property taxes.

[GDR]

GDR


I am sure you've heard of Warren Buffet, how long has he been buying and holding stocks? What is he worth now? The key is good blue chips that pay dividends, they won't be evaporating through bankruptcy. Of coarse markets go up and down but if you want to try and time the market you'll definitely get eaten alive.

Look at the the Dow from Mach 2009 to now, greatest bull run ever. Ajl, and Erolandson have been crying the sky is falling for years. They may be right one day, but if they've been following their own advise, to bad for them is all I can say. Same goes for farm land in Canada straight up in value.

Klaus, yes land prices may drop but how long has that tune been played for? I really think you should make that move to Argentina it sound like a good fit for you in all seriousness.

Forage, I hear what you are saying and you are right, mostly.

Yes I've heard of Warren Buffet, have you heard of Enron,Lehmann Bros, Kodak etc. Even Blue Chip stocks can fail and they do granted not as often. As for Buffet, he made some good decisions no doubt in his life but in recent years all he has to do is say what industry he's investing in and everyone follows, pushes the price up and then he makes money and looks smart again. Unless you are buying preffered shares which arent too many out there and tradable your common shares are lowest man on the totem pole when problems arise.

I too have been forcasting land and stock crashes for 10yrs and have been wrong all along I admit. Have missed opportunities because of it no question. Do have a large concern over governments, banks and retail going forward.

Land should crash only makes sense, however I now figure thats less likely not because of the fundamentals, just because land buyers are foolish, no longer tied to productive value and they dont care. Lots of deep pocket farmers that have had children come home to farm the last 10yrs that are now out of the workforce and dont have great alternatives but are hungry for more land. Non farmers too have seen the returns on farmland and view it as solid investment, if things look rocky thats one place they'll park money. And just so many people with money from around the world that think our land ia cheap by comparison.

[farmaholic]

Count me in, in the Chicken Little camp. When it comes to land prices, I've been crying the sky is falling for a while now and the ceiling has only been raised, I've only been wrong! But I am with the guys who say history will repeat. And not crash, but correct. Like SF3 said...not 65K... not even 80K quarters but I still think it will come down a bit.

[foragefarmer]

GDR

Your points are very valid and I agree there will be a correction of some sort in farm land, stock markets and real estate, am not that naive. But the problem is I don't know when or by how much, so therefore I continue to peck away at it. Yes I've been burnt in the past mainly due to my own stupidity and unfortunately learned the hard way. I'm nervous and cautious when buying of anything, but I try and stay the coarse which is very difficult these days.


The Buffet effect is so true, but it's very hard to resist not following someone who has been so successful at what he's done.

Bottom line here is I don't judge anybody for what they have done when it come to investing or not investing. I just have a problem with the armchair quarterbacks who come on here on a weekly basis for the past 5-10 years making their predictions on what the markets are going to do. To me they are only trying to justify their regrets.

Take it easy!

[grassfarmer]

Umm... I was using it as an example of what can happen in the prairies, and how much pain it can inflict.

Pity you highlighted the early 2000's "crash" when you posted your graph because as I said it clearly was a non-event. You can backtrack now and post a bigger decline through the 80's or a rise in more recent times but you were saying I had my head in the sand and missed a big event in the early 2000s when there was no big event in land prices as shown by the graph you posted.

[Braveheart]

Re land prices, the wild card affecting values will be interest rates. Every rise makes repayment harder and will cause some slight drop at current rates. However, case by case as land is priced by who wants it and how bad.

[newguy]

Land prices also follows population.as long as we continue to grow that will pressure prices up.People Bring money...Money brings people..Not the only thing that dictates prices but sure has an influence.

[SASKFARMER3]

Ok lots of comments.

But the question is if I sell example property that’s owned and paid for and put money in fund I get a return of on average $100.00 a acre. My question was how long will people be able to afford 100 a acre rent and we’re back at 50 or less even taxes. Yea some of you don’t realize that wasn’t that long ago.

I might be ahead of the curve again but reality is if we sell and enter this system and land goes up oh well. But if your betting on land going down you might buy the same property back and still have half your cash for other stuff.

Farming in Canada is not a big profitable venture. Slow and steady you put some away and land does go up in over 60 years.

Just wondering if the investors will pick up on this, or is it still sink cash into land from a foreign country then move it into the banks.

Farmers are usually the last in the game.

[Braveheart]

When you say you're ahead of the curve you're already behind it.

[Braveheart]

Didn't Shumachets (outstanding farmers winners) try that strategy?

[jamesb]

As the third generation to operate our farm it has always been the idea to grow the size of the farm. It is well understood that generally more acres are needed to be viable. The farm has bought land through the decades not as an investment but as something that can create wealth for the farm. The idea that the land appreciates in value is expected in the long term but there has never been the intent to liquidate the land at some point. The next generation will be farming the land and the succession plan should give me a decent retirement income. In my opinion it would be a shame to expect the next generation to pay market price and put themselves behind the 8 ball. I saw this in the 80's where the son bought out the dad and within 10 years or so the farm was gone.