Money in Bank vs Owning land? I think the tides have turned.

[ajl]

Could have sold land in 2013 for $USD and be ahead now. Land in western Canuckistan has only maintained or increased (depending on area) because of the 30% decrease in value of the loon since 2013. Agree with AB5 that it could still increase in loonie terms while decreasing in $usd as the loonie becomes largely irrelevant like the Mexican peso. Good land around here still brings the same as it has for the last 5 years but poorer stuff has been dropping. Thousands of acres in this county are unseeded this summer as they don't have a solvent renter and the owners are too old to find a new one. Growing volunteer canola and weeds. This land will hit the market as their owners die off. There is land here listed with a real estate agent for more than two years. The seller won't budge on price and there are no buyers where they are at.

[Klause]

I've been here since 2000 and nothing dramatic happened then to affect us one way or another.

Are you going to cash in your chips and move on before the "big crash" then?

If grain prices go down in SK due to a Trump embargo or some other crisis land prices won't halve - do you know how much Swiss guys sell land for - per square meter?

Land in Argentina is 10,000 cad a ha.


Third world country.


Trump isn't a concern. If we can move product to market and nhody wants to buy over sprayed over priced crop (look what happened to durum, peas, lentils) the land will have no value.


Look at the graph. History is doomed to repeat and they are making more farmland every day. Land closer to markets and far more productive than semi arid prairie.


If 2000-2005 didn't ring any bells your head is buried in too much sand.


Ask yourself this. Why do companies like Olam, that operate in Africa, south America, Russia, Europe Asia, and the USA completely ignore Canada.


Canada... "The best regulatory environment to extract maximum profit from primary producers" (direct quote from the CEO of a major "industry" player)

[farmaholic]

Sometimes I think the fewer hands that touch your investments the better off you are and "hopefully" more of the return left for the guy risking the capital.....not the guys "selling" the instrument or "playing" with YOUR money!

I don't have the knowledge, skill or time to flip shit around so I have to.....

I self direct my TFSA but only hold one solid dividend paying blue chip stock.

RRSP...RBC Dominion Securities

And the farm in the Slum of the Ghetto is managed by me, no wonder I can't get ahead.

[farming101]

Read this somewhere or the other,

It's not so much the return on investment, as it is the return OF investment

[foragefarmer]

GDR

"If you got $$ in stocks and shit hits the fan the decrease in value is just gone, they may regain value if you hold them long enough but more likely some will just evaporate through bankruptcy etc."

I am sure you've heard of Warren Buffet, how long has he been buying and holding stocks? What is he worth now? The key is good blue chips that pay dividends, they won't be evaporating through bankruptcy. Of coarse markets go up and down but if you want to try and time the market you'll definitely get eaten alive.

Look at the the Dow from Mach 2009 to now, greatest bull run ever. Ajl, and Erolandson have been crying the sky is falling for years. They may be right one day, but if they've been following their own advise, to bad for them is all I can say. Same goes for farm land in Canada straight up in value.

Klaus, yes land prices may drop but how long has that tune been played for? I really think you should make that move to Argentina it sound like a good fit for you in all seriousness.

[SASKFARMER3]

Gee grass you should of moved here in 1981you would be a BTO now.

Land in 1981hit a high all over western canada.

Boom interest rates went north and boom any farmer who bought were gone. In our area only one survived. Bought nothing for 25 years.

Land dropped over 50% actually 65%.

It can happen and if Canadian farmers can’t compete or get years of shit weather.

It happens in the 30s.

A 525000 quarter might go to 250000 a 325000 quarter might drop to 175000 no it won’t go to 65000. Study land prices in canada they go up and down but never lower that last one.

[grassfarmer]

.......If 2000-2005 didn't ring any bells your head is buried in too much sand.....

Whooppee doo looks like on your graph the average dropped from @$470 to @450 and then climbed back to $460 over a 5 year period. Big drama.

[Partners]

Going by the chart guess we bought at the peak of 1982.
21% interest to.
Wheat at that time was $8.00.
Inputs sweet tweet compared to now.
Loan was paid for 3 yrs.
Neighbors lost theirs to banks and bought back for half price..
Some will fail regardless of price.
Some will survive regardless of price.
Management is key.

[Klause]

GDR

"If you got $$ in stocks and shit hits the fan the decrease in value is just gone, they may regain value if you hold them long enough but more likely some will just evaporate through bankruptcy etc."

I am sure you've heard of Warren Buffet, how long has he been buying and holding stocks? What is he worth now? The key is good blue chips that pay dividends, they won't be evaporating through bankruptcy. Of coarse markets go up and down but if you want to try and time the market you'll definitely get eaten alive.

Look at the the Dow from Mach 2009 to now, greatest bull run ever. Ajl, and Erolandson have been crying the sky is falling for years. They may be right one day, but if they've been following their own advise, to bad for them is all I can say. Same goes for farm land in Canada straight up in value.

Klaus, yes land prices may drop but how long has that tune been played for? I really think you should make that move to Argentina it sound like a good fit for you in all seriousness.

I didn't realize reading a single-element graph was that hard for you and grassy.


We bought land at $105,000 6 years ago. Today it's worth $375,000.

Does it grow more bushels? Maybe a few... Are those bushels worth anymore? No... actually less.


Has infrastructure improved to reduce basis levels? No... that's gone the wrong way too.

Has profitability increased due to lower inputs? HAHAHAHAH.


The irony I see, is the biggest bull run on the Dow, ever... kicked off by Trump, but you hate his policies... and hate everything he stands for.


Lefties/liberals. So many conflicting "ideologies" I don't know how ya'll reconcile them.

[Klause]

Whooppee doo looks like on your graph the average dropped from @$470 to @450 and then climbed back to $460 over a 5 year period. Big drama.

Umm... I was using it as an example of what can happen in the prairies, and how much pain it can inflict.

Canada is bigger than MB/AB/SK...


From '81 to '93 land lost over $600/acre... 65%.


Regardless, seems to be lost on you and forage that land is already dropping in Canada... Think about it, you'll figure it out. LOL. (hint... a sheet of aspenite went from $5.77 a sheet in 2012 to $18.96 a sheet today).


BTW, the crash in urban real estate is going to be far worse than in Ag.

[bigcoupee]

GDR

"If you got $$ in stocks and shit hits the fan the decrease in value is just gone, they may regain value if you hold them long enough but more likely some will just evaporate through bankruptcy etc."

I am sure you've heard of Warren Buffet, how long has he been buying and holding stocks? What is he worth now? The key is good blue chips that pay dividends, they won't be evaporating through bankruptcy. Of coarse markets go up and down but if you want to try and time the market you'll definitely get eaten alive.

Look at the the Dow from Mach 2009 to now, greatest bull run ever. Ajl, and Erolandson have been crying the sky is falling for years. They may be right one day, but if they've been following their own advise, to bad for them is all I can say. Same goes for farm land in Canada straight up in value.

Klaus, yes land prices may drop but how long has that tune been played for? I really think you should make that move to Argentina it sound like a good fit for you in all seriousness.

If SHTF you think your electronic property title you hold of the crown will mean anything to anyone. The natives were technically correct you can never truly own land. Just try not paying your property taxes.

[GDR]

GDR


I am sure you've heard of Warren Buffet, how long has he been buying and holding stocks? What is he worth now? The key is good blue chips that pay dividends, they won't be evaporating through bankruptcy. Of coarse markets go up and down but if you want to try and time the market you'll definitely get eaten alive.

Look at the the Dow from Mach 2009 to now, greatest bull run ever. Ajl, and Erolandson have been crying the sky is falling for years. They may be right one day, but if they've been following their own advise, to bad for them is all I can say. Same goes for farm land in Canada straight up in value.

Klaus, yes land prices may drop but how long has that tune been played for? I really think you should make that move to Argentina it sound like a good fit for you in all seriousness.

Forage, I hear what you are saying and you are right, mostly.

Yes I've heard of Warren Buffet, have you heard of Enron,Lehmann Bros, Kodak etc. Even Blue Chip stocks can fail and they do granted not as often. As for Buffet, he made some good decisions no doubt in his life but in recent years all he has to do is say what industry he's investing in and everyone follows, pushes the price up and then he makes money and looks smart again. Unless you are buying preffered shares which arent too many out there and tradable your common shares are lowest man on the totem pole when problems arise.

I too have been forcasting land and stock crashes for 10yrs and have been wrong all along I admit. Have missed opportunities because of it no question. Do have a large concern over governments, banks and retail going forward.

Land should crash only makes sense, however I now figure thats less likely not because of the fundamentals, just because land buyers are foolish, no longer tied to productive value and they dont care. Lots of deep pocket farmers that have had children come home to farm the last 10yrs that are now out of the workforce and dont have great alternatives but are hungry for more land. Non farmers too have seen the returns on farmland and view it as solid investment, if things look rocky thats one place they'll park money. And just so many people with money from around the world that think our land ia cheap by comparison.

[farmaholic]

Count me in, in the Chicken Little camp. When it comes to land prices, I've been crying the sky is falling for a while now and the ceiling has only been raised, I've only been wrong! But I am with the guys who say history will repeat. And not crash, but correct. Like SF3 said...not 65K... not even 80K quarters but I still think it will come down a bit.

[foragefarmer]

GDR

Your points are very valid and I agree there will be a correction of some sort in farm land, stock markets and real estate, am not that naive. But the problem is I don't know when or by how much, so therefore I continue to peck away at it. Yes I've been burnt in the past mainly due to my own stupidity and unfortunately learned the hard way. I'm nervous and cautious when buying of anything, but I try and stay the coarse which is very difficult these days.


The Buffet effect is so true, but it's very hard to resist not following someone who has been so successful at what he's done.

Bottom line here is I don't judge anybody for what they have done when it come to investing or not investing. I just have a problem with the armchair quarterbacks who come on here on a weekly basis for the past 5-10 years making their predictions on what the markets are going to do. To me they are only trying to justify their regrets.

Take it easy!

[grassfarmer]

Umm... I was using it as an example of what can happen in the prairies, and how much pain it can inflict.

Pity you highlighted the early 2000's "crash" when you posted your graph because as I said it clearly was a non-event. You can backtrack now and post a bigger decline through the 80's or a rise in more recent times but you were saying I had my head in the sand and missed a big event in the early 2000s when there was no big event in land prices as shown by the graph you posted.