Soybean Trade war; Just the Beginning

[errolanderson]

Finch Ratings warning of $2 trillion in global trade now at-risk should Trump stay on trade warpath

China now blocking U.S. Micron chip sales could unnerve NASDAQ on reopening Thursday.

USD pullback and CAD recovery on these churning and destabilizing trade events? . . . we'll see

[AlbertaFarmer5]

China has already removed barriers to importing additional canola meal since this trade war started. Canola price has held up surprisingly well, inspite of weather and soybean price. The only reasonable explanation is that demand from China is increasing to make up for lack of US soybeans.

[errolanderson]

More China cancellations of U.S. soybean shipments heard today. Fresh contract lows tested again.

China has repeatedly stated they will not fire the first shot, but will retaliate should the U.S. do so.

The financial fallout across the Midwest within agriculture and outside of agriculture will be immense.

U.S. tariffs come into effect Friday, July 06th . . . .

[errolanderson]

A silver lining . . . Could China soymeal demand shift toward Cdn peas in a big way over the next few months?

China soybean purchases are primarily destined for meal and feeding their hogs and swelling Chinese pork demand.

[blackpowder]

"we can surmount all challenges.....the progress of China's economy cannot be reversed by any force"
Guo Shuqing Head of China's Banking and Insurance regulator.


Makes you wish you were Chinese somedays don't it??
Have to be high as kite to dream those words out of our govts mouth.

[MBgrower]

trumps trade war is just making china and their economy more powerful everyday

[errolanderson]

trumps trade war is just making china and their economy more powerful everyday

MB agree . . . It’s just a matter of time before China leapfrogs the U.S. in technology.

[workboots]

The Chinese don’t seem to innovate as much as they strategize.

They built 700 coal power plants in the last year. Think about that.

They build giant empty cities antisipating population growth and migration.

They strategically send the brightest minds out into the best academic realms arounds world to learn from more advanced cultures.

Most technological innovation comes from free and open democratic societies.

Maybe our economy needs to manufacture more, process and value add with our Ever improving AI and automation capabilities

Create more and become more integrated into the chain of raw to final

We need to start thinking we are more then raw resource providers. For some reason Its engrained in prairie settlers . Grow it, mine it, ship it. - we are going to lose that game from the looks of it, so what’s our next best option.

[the big wheel]

The Chinese don’t seem to innovate as much as they strategize.

They built 700 coal power plants in the last year. Think about that.

They build giant empty cities antisipating population growth and migration.

They strategically send the brightest minds out into the best academic realms arounds world to learn from more advanced cultures.

Most technological innovation comes from free and open democratic societies.

Maybe our economy needs to manufacture more, process and value add with our Ever improving AI and automation capabilities

Create more and become more integrated into the chain of raw to final

We need to start thinking we are more then raw resource providers. For some reason Its engrained in prairie settlers . Grow it, mine it, ship it. - we are going to lose that game from the looks of it, so what’s our next best option.

This is so true. We have this mindset because our government people
Are controlled by the other countries companies that are stealing our resources right out from under us. Bought off governments with individuals that only looking after their own short sighted personal greedy gains. So many comments here about how we need re USA. Well yes we do but they would be hurt significantly without the resources we provide them at minimal cost also.

stop giving your vote away create a new business political party these ones are too owned by everyone else except us the people.

[errolanderson]

U.S. escalating trade war announcing $200 billion this aft on China imports. China digging in for the long haul.

All global commodities and equities under selling pressure tonite. Gold has now plunged nearly 10 percent since April. Soybeans very choppy. Nov canola may again threaten to break $500/MT. Corn and wheat UGH! Nearby lean hogs limit down.

P.S. Bank of Canada wants to hike rates tomorrow. Canada’s economy must be OK . . . .

[macdon02]

U.S. escalating trade war announcing $200 billion this aft on China imports. China digging in for the long haul.

All global commodities and equities under selling pressure tonite. Gold has now plunged nearly 10 percent since April. Soybeans very choppy. Nov canola may again threaten to break $500/MT. Corn and wheat UGH! Nearby lean hogs limit down.

P.S. Bank of Canada wants to hike rates tomorrow. Canada’s economy must be OK . . . .

regarding basis ....

braz is +240ish for old crop-not much left to sell-particularly as some trapped in the interior due to new freight rates. New crop has moved from around +50 to +85-100. Surprisingly Braz still shipping some to other than PRC in July.*


US is around +60ish for old crop and +45 for new crop. At these spreads all biz outside of PRC should move to the US. FWIW we r less than 30 spread on old crop to pay for the tariff-but now many think the tariff could move to more than 25% as PRC really is*out of US imports to put a tariff on.


Braz could import 500K of beans for port crushers-but all imported beans must be exported as product. Argy has more crushers at ports so they could import 1-2 mt. *


PRC meal exports seem to be ending-as they should as they will be short 15-20 mt of beans Sept-Jan. Japan yesterday bot PNW meal/ddg cargoes to replace some PRC meal imports.


Unless PRC decides to cut demand by the 15-20 mt world demand should actually go higher as the rest of the world buys off of CME and the price is down 200. Only PRC domestic users have suffered from the tariff as they r paying 200 more than the rest of the*world.