Friday Crop Report on a Thursday!

[jazz]

SF3, I appreciate the crop reports.

But I have a question. We as farmers have thrown everything into a crop again. Fert, chem fungicides etc etc.

Now mother nature is batting last. Looks like she might hit a late season double or triple in a few places.

Can this high input, costs all upfront, everything more expensive every yr (except the commodity) model of agriculture continue?

[Guest]

SF3, I appreciate the crop reports.

But I have a question. We as farmers have thrown everything into a crop again. Fert, chem fungicides etc etc.

Now mother nature is batting last. Looks like she might hit a late season double or triple in a few places.

Can this high input, costs all upfront, everything more expensive every yr (except the commodity) model of agriculture continue?

In one word , NO , it cannot continue

[jazz]

In one word , NO , it cannot continue

I am hearing on the g****vine that yields are going backwards fast in a lot of areas. Heat blasted, sparse canola is some, durum losing kernels and probably weight now, soya looking for rains.

And the same thing is around the world. Crop problems abound, Australia, Russia, EU. The wheat stocks have already been reduced last year.

The best thing we as farmers could do is lock the bins and force a shortage and get these prices where they need to be. We can do that the crops we dominate, canola, durum, flax, canary, lentils.

This industry is doomed if there isnt a reckoning soon.

[grassfarmer]

AF5 - weren't you the guy telling me a while back how much extra we could grow if temperatures increased - although you did acknowledge in a later post that hotter years in western Canada were correlated with lower precipitation?

Wow, things must be tough if Sheepwheat's crops are just hanging on, LOL.

Joking aside it's a salutary reminder that drought always has been, and will continue to be, the biggest climatic risk facing prairie agriculture.

[SASKFARMER3]

Trying something different today. Using the Kelley on a gay field once over and second two pass. Level mole hills and thatch grass

[fjlip]

Oh dear the sky is falling, the climate changed within ONE MONTH Temps are up 10C, not 1.2C in the next 50 years! From WET to DRY...guess what it will change to WET again! Oh dear the sky is falling!
Oh well seen this in last 50 years a few times, no shortage of bin space this harvest.
Hoping the premiers grow a brain on CARBON TAX.

[Guest]

Trying something different today. Using the Kelley on a gay field once over and second two pass. Level mole hills and thatch grass

A “gay” field ? Liberals will have your arse

[SASKFARMER3]

Yea case I read that after.

Trudeau staffer just phoned.

Next field

[Oliver88]

SF3, I appreciate the crop reports.

But I have a question. We as farmers have thrown everything into a crop again. Fert, chem fungicides etc etc.

Now mother nature is batting last. Looks like she might hit a late season double or triple in a few places.

Can this high input, costs all upfront, everything more expensive every yr (except the commodity) model of agriculture continue?

Solid question, worthy of its own discussion.

A seed company at AIM this year is promoting hybrid rye, that they won't be selling by the bushel but instead by the seed (seed a lighter rate for only $65/acre😬).........this to me sounds like a step in the wrong direction to keep inputs under control. Sounds like another slippery slope with a bad ending for farmers, best to not take part in.

[farmaholic]

Solid question, worthy of its own discussion.

A seed company at AIM this year is promoting hybrid rye, that they won't be selling by the bushel but instead by the seed (seed a lighter rate for only $65/acre😬).........this to me sounds like a step in the wrong direction to keep inputs under control. Sounds like another slippery slope with a bad ending for farmers, best to not take part in.

It will come to you whether you like it, or want it, or not.

Any other Producer's being denied a suck on their own tit(as disgusting as that may sound...let me finish)? What I mean by that is being denied credit card payments for some crop inputs? We keep getting told there is tight margin in some stuff and they can't afford the 1 or 2% the C.C. Co. charges them for a transaction fee. Where do I get a benefit from using and buying this shit...am I supposed to farm rebate programs or make decisions based on what fits the need or even cheaper cost products than rebated/discounted prices through "programs". Seems the assholes won't even let you take a drink from your own well...after YOU drew the water(it's your money and you're paying the bill)

Ever notice the consolidation taking place?

Ever notice some retailers get wined and dined or given hot holidays for meeting sales targets or promoting someone's brand over another?

Does your retailer treat you different if you shop somewhere else for some of your inputs?

Some days I get tired of being a host to the "parasite party". It is ****ing amazing how many people primary ag directly and indirectly support....look at AIM and some of the people attending field days...i don't mind helping paying some people's wages....as long as they are adding value...but a drain on the "Industry".....?!?!?!?!

[AlbertaFarmer5]

AF5 - weren't you the guy telling me a while back how much extra we could grow if temperatures increased - although you did acknowledge in a later post that hotter years in western Canada were correlated with lower precipitation?

Yes, and I meant to post earlier this spring admitting you were right( partly). When winter turned directly to summer, and we were getting 30 C days in May with no rain, our pastures were scary to look at, hardly even greened up. And that time period was certainly what cooked the hay fields. However, I am primarily a grain farmer, and that weather was exactly what we needed. At the end of April when the snow was still deeper than my boots, I was prepared for a late mud fest and seeding a fraction of our acres. Instead, I seeded every acre( except a couple small potholes on some newly acquired land) at the usual dates, never got stuck, only dealt with mud a couple times early on, and as a result, now have the potential to see our best whole farm averages ever. The advantage of being somewhat diversified, there is usually a silver lining.

Our own pastures did eventually recover, and have been very good ever since, partly thanks to good management during last years dry and this spring. I consider our hay crops to be a disaster by our standards, but 3 tons is likely a decent crop by most standards.

I actually think that cold ground was a lot of the problem as well. Just because the air was 30 above, the ground was buried under snow a few days previously, and frozen deep. I'm seeing much better crop, pasture or hay on top of pipelines ( heat source) in spite of the hot and dry. Tells me that heat was still the limiting factor, as it has been every year that I have been paying attention.

Joking aside it's a salutary reminder that drought always has been, and will continue to be, the biggest climatic risk facing prairie agriculture.

You almost had it right, just a few edits to make it accurate:
Drought had always been, but is becoming less so thanks to climate change and improved techniques, the biggest risk facing the Palliser triangle area. Outside of that area, the biggest risk is more often too much rain, frost, hail and socialist Governments.

Which has cost you more production this year, the hail or the heat?

I don't know if you have seen them, but I posted some interesting graphs in the dust storm thread, I would be interested in your take on them. And no, they are not from some "denier".

[dmlfarmer]

Saskatchewan crop insurance steals the most !

5 years no claims

10000 acres x 20 an acre premium is 200 000 x 5

1 000 000 premiums !

They take the premium and give nothing in return !

Who made who !

Hey wise guy, how many times have you collected on your fire insurance for your home burning down that you pay a premium on every year? And how many times have you died and collected on your life insurance? Insurance is not supposed to pay every year. It is a just risk management tool. If you don't think you will ever have a crop loss, why do you buy crop insurance? Instead, why don't you simply self insure. Instead of giving that 200,000 to SCI, invest it. That is what SCI does until they pay out losses. Had you done that for the last 5 years you would have had that 1,000,000 plus investment returns in your own account. Of course, lets say your insurance offers $400 and acre coverage, should you have a total crop failure, you are risking $400 X 10,000 acres or 4 million every year. so your own savings would not cover that total failure even after 5 years of self insurance. And by inflating your premiums over 5 years to get the million, you should also inflate the coverage and protection over 5 years which is 20 Million. Remember too that $20 per acre is likely less than just the seed cost for a crop like canola. So is 20 an acre really that expensive considering all the other costs per acre you would have to cover with insurance including land payments, equipment usage and payments, pesticides, and even your living costs?

[helmsdale]

My acres... durum getting very bumpy, burning the top kernels out, and aborting stools. Heat is kicking the snot out of it.

Peas aborting top pods.

Lentils that I seeded later than I wanted, are full bloom, bottom is podding, but wilting during the day.

Mustard bloomed for 3.5 weeks, pod set seems ok... hoping the heat doesn't make for low test weight.

Private thundershower today... hopefully plants haven't completely shut down from blazing heat and will plump up what's left.

In laws place 30mi east of here looks pretty tough. No private showers. Durum burning down, peas burning down(many with zero pods on them), lentils burning down, canola/mustard burning down.

[iceman]

My acres... durum getting very bumpy, burning the top kernels out, and aborting stools. Heat is kicking the snot out of it.

In laws place 30mi east of here looks pretty tough. No private showers. Durum burning down, peas burning down(many with zero pods on them), lentils burning down, canola/mustard burning down.

Didn’t you say there was a lot of fungicide being sprayed there a while back?

[biglentil]

My acres... durum getting very bumpy, burning the top kernels out, and aborting stools. Heat is kicking the snot out of it.

Peas aborting top pods.

Lentils that I seeded later than I wanted, are full bloom, bottom is podding, but wilting during the day.

Mustard bloomed for 3.5 weeks, pod set seems ok... hoping the heat doesn't make for low test weight.

Private thundershower today... hopefully plants haven't completely shut down from blazing heat and will plump up what's left.

In laws place 30mi east of here looks pretty tough. No private showers. Durum burning down, peas burning down(many with zero pods on them), lentils burning down, canola/mustard burning down.

Yep dry is an understatement here. Crop is shutting down fast!