Wheat

[malleefarmer]

GASC/Egypt tender tomorrow i think price and origin both intriguing.

[SASKFARMER3]

Wheat futures are continuing to rebound from lows hit earlier this month, with much of the strength coming from world production downgrades. The benchmark Chicago market touched its highest in six weeks on Monday (before retreating to close slightly lower) amid continued concerns that dry weather in the EU and Black Sea Region will lead to smaller crops in some of the world’s main exporting countries.

[farmaholic]

Look at the carry in the MGEX over a year out....60 cents.

Comments please

[farming101]

One interpretation would be that no one is worried about protein and spring wheat supplies right now.
As soon as it was known that the HRW crop would have improved protein this year the premium disappeared and the carry increased.

I look at the carry as a discount for immediate movement. And the carry relates to how much there is in it to store. Not sure I'd be willing to store wheat over a year for 60 cents, even if it is USD

[farmaholic]

One interpretation would be that no one is worried about protein and spring wheat supplies right now.
As soon as it was known that the HRW crop would have improved protein this year the premium disappeared and the carry increased.

I look at the carry as a discount for immediate movement. And the carry relates to how much there is in it to store. Not sure I'd be willing to store wheat over a year for 60 cents, even if it is USD

June/July 2019....falls into my marketing timeframe unless something good comes up in the meantime.

Edit..."new crop" of course.

[farming101]

No cheap way to profit off the carry that far out and still leave options open.

Best to buy MWZ18 around 5.67 or so and take on some risk. It'll be a texas hedge soon enough!
Live large!

Not a recommendation DYODD

[sumdumguy]

Maybe cheaper to buy a crop on the market than grow one????

[Bowerpower]

Some attractive basis levels out there as well. Lock in basis and leave futures open could be an option z

[makar]

All turns to shit when you dont make grade and you cant sell your grain and have to pay out your
worthless paper.

[Partners]

RP has a 15 cents bushel premium on now..wow...same price as last Dec...

[SASKFARMER3]

Cargill .25 cents any month almost 7 April.

Oh how they dangle ahead of the fact the crop is small and the world wheat crop is smaller.

[farmaholic]

MGEX spring wheat up sharply before the market opens...

Some carry lost.

I'm hoping for a quality harvest.... it is way easier selling high quality wheat than poor quality....now show me the money.

If the futures market can hold on to these gains, suspect some of it will be lost, er I mean taken in the basis as harvest pressure mounts....

[farming101]

If the futures market can hold on to these gains, suspect some of it will be lost, er I mean taken in the basis as harvest pressure mounts....

That is one thing you can be sure of....

[ajl]

All turns to shit when you dont make grade and you cant sell your grain and have to pay out your
worthless paper.

Having to pay it out includes the lesson that paper isn't always worthless.

[Oliver88]

Minneapolis wheat up 27 cents.