Wheat

[wmoebis]

Yup..when the yields are better than expected.then it crashes.

But at least everyone had opertunity to lock in everything at higher price. Have noone but yourself to blame if you don’t.

[bucket]

The latest fundamentals indicate we may underpriced by 50 cents a bushel....

[farming101]

MWZ - the hammer has fallen. Will need closes above 625.5 tomorrow and Monday to cancel.
Otherwise look for a retracement

Goes without saying but anyway, steady as she goes

[beaverdam]

She's 20 cents better than your 6.25, gotta like !

Where to now, a technical prediction?

[bucket]

The latest fundamentals indicate we may underpriced by 50 cents a bushel....

disclaimer::::thats a wild ass guess for the fact that the EU is dry,,,Australia is dry,,,Russia is reducing exports and Canada is not a bumper and the US has an average crop....those are the supply nations,,,,

This thing could get legs...or trump could **** it up.....or Justin could as well...Saudi Arabia quit irrigating for wheat because they could buy on the international markets....Trudeaus staff just ****ed that up.

[jamesb]

At some point all the drought news is gonna get priced into the market. It has been a nice jump, over a $1.25 since mid July. Wouldn't surprise me if we are close to the top short term.

[farming101]

As prices rise the commercial longs will continue to move to a net short position. Commercials were record net long on July 17 report. So far there are specs increasing their long position (still net short as of a week ago) in spite of the $1 increase since July 17. This is a good setup for a further price increase.

Also wave counts would indicate we will see a pullback at some point before one more wave higher. That wave 5 may get us up to 6.50MWU or 6.60MWZ. Timing is not great for more than that near term. However there is a chance that as Sept goes into delivery there could be a bit more(6.65) but that won't matter to anyone but the funds.

What could upset the applecart is the world situation as Bucket indicated. Chicago wheat is in a 'move the yardsticks' kind of advance. Anything could happen and so what is on the charts has to be taken as low confidence. ZWZ has the time to make 6.60(closed at 5.96 today). There is even indicators for higher values than 6.60 in ZWZ but there is a lot of resistance in place yet. What might indicate a much higher move would be a series of daily closes above 6.13-6.18 before the end of August. Again, very low confidence, but it would put 6.60 in play and maybe even more. Kind of a lets stand back and see what happens type of thing.

That same 6.13-6.18 area is resistance at present. Somebody somewhere will try and short it!

[malleefarmer]

Guess were playing catch up compared to canadian prices but APW in West Aust just hit $360 port. Our state $20 behind that drought basis.

Presume aussie dollar similar to canadian. Fighting for same markets to a degree.

$9.80 per bushel or my maths bad?

[farmaholic]

Minni Wheats turning down?

101?

[farming101]

Go figure....

Retrace to 6.12 MWZ and see what that does

[farmaholic]

Where to from here? A couple of dirty dives and....

[Oliver88]

December Minneapolis doesn’t want to stay above $6.50 for long durations.

[farmaholic]

When you look at the Sept chart there was never really any extended period of sideways trading...it was either on its way up or down. Currently it seems to have paused and I wonder which direction it will take and what will drive it... fundamentals or specs.

101? Opinion... (and not of the crop or the fact we still swath)

[farmaholic]

In reality isn't Sept almost passé? But Dec is pretty much a mirror image anyway.

[farming101]

Fundamentally world conditions are going to determine any prices advances, so Chicago wheat will lead prices. SF3 noted that there are forecasts out there for a much smaller Aussie crop than the latest WASDE.
At home harvest pressure is going to keep a lid on prices. Demand is decent right now. There was a 40 cent premium on for a few minutes yesterday. 7.25 for Aug del #1 13.5. Trendline prices going back over 2 years are around 6.80 avg for SK #1 13.5.

Pricing will be off Dec very shortly I expect.

The chart is saying "hold". MWZ could see a "sell" with a couple closes below 606.25.
The 6.12 I mentioned a bit ago is in the range every day yet. Have to wait and see. My sense is that I think the trade is ok with prices in this area and may not push it too much. It will take bullish news which is likely not going to pop up for a while. Have had quite a lot of bullish news in the last while and we already have the result
This is all very amateur. For a more professional analysis go here:
https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=799615&mid=6929342#M6929342 https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=799615&mid=6929342#M6929342