Tired of Winning Yet? . . . .

[macdon02]

http://defensepoliticsasia.com/why-china-import-soybeans-from-the-us/

[furrowtickler]

Peas should also be screaming higher if they're looking for protein meal !

Agreed .
We all hear this demand for pea protein yet get offered SFA for good quality safe product .
Always lots of talk , but that don’t pay bills and most farms are going to be in 6-8 year rotations if they continue to grow them at all . That takes a huge chunk out of yearly production.. just my take .

[errolanderson]

Trump appears in political hot water with his own party over self-imposed soybean price fallout and farm U.S. bailout. The U.S. / EU tariff truce appears short on-detail.

China damage is already done. Beans will trade in a new, lower trading window into the new crop year. Added EU soybean purchases will not undo this damage (in my opinion).

Agree . . . Cdn pea prices appear undervalued given the potential demand heading into the winter market. Trump tariff missteps may be a boon for Cdn growers over the next few months.

[macdon02]

There's a gap in euro futures way up at 125.5 that's bugging me. Been a 3x attempt on DX at 95.20 area. I'm guessing it'll be when things fundamentally look most bullish for US we'll get the turn. It's very close. Here's any opinion on dollars and gold, takes a bit to get going but some very valid points raised.

https://youtu.be/AtlbxAYaOzI

[errolanderson]

Amazing '1st guess' of U.S. 2nd quarter growth projected at 4.1%. But unlikely to hold (IMO). Revisions ahead will likely cut this growth. Also, companies also were stocking up on inventory ahead of tariffs.

3rd quarter may be a totally different world as impact of tariffs begins to be felt. China downturn appears inevitable which will have significant contagion risk across the globe, including the U.S. Now the real music begins . . . .

[biglentil]

There's a gap in euro futures way up at 125.5 that's bugging me. Been a 3x attempt on DX at 95.20 area. I'm guessing it'll be when things fundamentally look most bullish for US we'll get the turn. It's very close. Here's any opinion on dollars and gold, takes a bit to get going but some very valid points raised.

https://youtu.be/AtlbxAYaOzI

Interesting video Macdon! Time to back the truck up again.

[errolanderson]

According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, it would now cost U.S. taxpayers $39 billion to bail out all U.S. business from tariff damage. $12 billion has been already designated to agriculture . . . .

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/30/full-scale-bailout-for-industries-impacted-by-tariffs-would-cost-39-b.html

[Guest]

and it costs Trudeau sfa to bail out cdn Ag from tariffs ??

[ajl]

Well we can rest assured that the US is not tired of winning but the ROW (rest of world is sure tired of the US winning all the time) Soy has been on a nice rally lately and soon will be close to the level it would be at without the INCREASE in Chinese tariff. The tariff on soy has always existed but at a low level. And the US soy farmer will be sharing in 12B of pogey to top it all off. That was unnecessary IMO. The fact is China has to buy US beans and if they want to do it through third parties so be it. China needs to sell more into the US market as it has 50T of debt to service which has been spent on ghost cities, infrastructure, land in Madagascar etc. The US might as well have a tariff since so other market is accepting imports which is why the call to diversify our markets is laughable. There is no other market. The US IS the market. Nowhere else.

[errolanderson]

U.S. trade deficit released this morning jumped by the most in three (3) years. Last month reason . . . deficit rise was due to rush to import in-front of tariffs. This month reason . . . deficit rose due to the rampaging U.S. economy . . . pick em.

America's trade deficit may be actually 'made in America' (IMO) . . . .

[Rareearth]

The USA dollar is strong.
-Multinational companies using US dollar trade to buy for other country manufacturing plants and raw materials

- if there isn’t tariffs now many companies are buying now and stocking up

- the upper middle class is buying foreign autos, BMW, Audi, etc

- everyone is seeking holiday travel outside the usa, it’s never been so cheap

Etc

Always unintended consequences

[beaverdam]

Bank of Canada holds interest rates this morning, expect the dollar to drop lower vs. USD

[errolanderson]

What comes around, goes around . . . when it comes to global trade. The risk and failings of tariffs . . . .

http://kticradio.com/agricultural/russia-selling-2-5-million-acres-to-china-for-soybean-production/