How much yield will be lost this week?

[SASKFARMER3]

Just out doing a different drive home from the lake and one thing is starting to show up.

The extreme heat and lack of rain and no subsoil moisture.

You can now see spots in the fields all away along were the soil is poor. Hilltops are turning a white colour. Whole fields in some areas are turning white.

Canola that was seeded late is having flower blast as dark yellow spots are spotted.

Wheat is ripening or burning down.

Heads that once showed promise are not filling all the way up.

I recommend guys just get off the farm take a drive around out of their area and see whats going on.

Rain now would just finish the crop for some. Some it would push the crop to a total shut down just because it's too late and the plant will shut down.

Fires could be a problem for this harvest like other places around the world.

Peas are being shut down and one guy sent a picture of the harvest starting.

The next week we will have average temps of over 28 c up to some areas in 33 or higher. Windy on a few days.

So yes our area is doing a little better than most with all the rain yield will be taken also.



Grass will cry and insert some useless drivel or comment now.

But reality this week will take yield.

Ex.

64lb wheat that was a potential a few weeks ago with moisture.

Might be 60lbs now.

4 lbs x 58 bus or 3.8 bus gone.

3.8 bus x 1000acres example is 3800 gone or $24,000.00

Canola doesn't like heat and this year we are all on way to lighter canola overall and they might even complain it isn't full of oil like other years.

Canola there will be more 40 and down crops out their instead of 40 and up. Throw in small light seed and its a big hit for all.


Simply put the next week could potentially take millions out of the Canadian crop.

Those who got a nice rain excellent party on.

To all who missed the rain its next year country.

My famous week for rain is the exhibition week in Regina that is this week. Its the make or break week for rain event. It is looking like a dud for rain so that's why I'm calling the 2018 crop reduced

Ah, farming.

Who else is thinking the yield potential is dropping every single day.

Farm links yield projections are a joke.

Sorry to offend some but wow not even in the ballpark.

One field they were standing in the guy said 74 yield potential. F#$K then mine will do a 110 if that one was 74. Total bullshit.

Lock the bins the world is burning up and the price they are paying now isn't even reflecting Canadas lower production.

[SASKFARMER3]

One observation also was the hail events have caused damage that is not coming back this year. Plants shut down.

Wheat were stone hit and took a row out is dead and not filled.

[Hamloc]

My question is very simple are your crops burning or turning? In my neck of the woods east of Red Deer the crops for the most part are burning. They have run out of water and in the last few days they are starting to cook. What is everyone seeing in your area?

[farmaholic]

Not many years does a crop reach it's full potential, at least here it doesn't.

Bugs
Too much rain
Too little rain
Hail
Poor establishment
Harvest down grading
Disease

I'm use to it.

Your satisfaction/disappointment will be directly proportionate to your expectations.

There is nothing wrong with stating the fact that alot of the Western Canadian 2018 crop is getting smaller by the day. But my Dad told me, on more than one occasion, "that it's never so bad that it couldn't be worse". We, on our farm, may not have a bin buster this year but should end up with a better crop than last year, at least the peas and canola. Wheat was still decent last year and I'm hopeful this year it's a bit better.

Focus now will be on quality, do our best to get what's there off.in good shape.

Good luck every one and take care.

[mustardman]

Provably harvesting Mustard by early next week
Won't have much left after filling my 10 bushel/acre contract

Lots of poor looking Durum as well, funny how durum was around $ 7 when I started farming in 1973
45 years later and same price
Dad bought a brand new 4430 JD for 17000, you can still buy them for that but it'll have 15000 Hours !

[macdon02]

Not sure it matters or is relevant but harvest report from Washington State has no protein and slightly above average yields on spring wheat. What should have been 13pro is under 11. Night time temps possibly giving the crop too much relief... daytime temps was what was thought to be more then ample. Not a huge wheat area but disturbing to hear

[sawfly1]

Have not been that far, but what I have seen is not last year's crop. Have we had more growing days or seeded earlier. Wheat turning.seems early.
Easy to see what the subsoil, is like. From the road

Heavy lay down canola.all over last year. Have only seen a few this year.
It is not quite 1988. When the market was slow to respond. Or wake up.
I Look on the bright side. No bags price goes up and
The RRs might be able to handle it for a change

[SASKFARMER3]

Thanks everyone who has posted.

Again its observations from the road, next two weeks weather and yield.

I’m a realist the big huge potential is gone.

It’s outof each farmers control. Weather is weather.

When you can see shit in fields happening at 110 km hour then stop and see it for real yet so called experts show pictures standing in field that they claim will go 74 average that make mine close to 110 then.

It just pisses me off.

Anything to keep our price low in canada.

But when we’re spending you have to use all this snake oil for that extra yield potential.

Well Mother Nature F$&ks up potential fast.

So post your area and what you feel will be lost potential as that’s the time we’re in.

Lost liter

[blackpowder]

To answer your question.
LOTS! Whitening canola, brown peas.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

We are busy haying, and I keep watching the forecast and radar begging for rain, kids couldn't understand why I want hay to get rained on. I explained that we are losing tens of thousands of dollars a day without rain in our grain crops vs. a minor inconvenience to putting up hay. Our canola still had a lot of potential a few days ago, the supposed week of rain ended up with almost a quarter inch, a few hundredths at a time. That doesn't go farat 30 above. Still flowering, but burning up the lower leaves, all leaves droopy during day, and threatening to shut down flowering way too early. Any lighter soil shows up easily.

Our heavy clay and infinite subsoil hold massive amounts of water, and usually pull us through long dry spells, but there was no subsoil water to hold this year. The 365 day drought monitor map has us between 1 in 50 and 1 in 25 year dry.

Cereals in the area are turning various shades, that never happens in July, and I don't think all of the shades are healthy.

[bucket]

how much yield will be lost this week?

None according to most experts ...


In my part of the world and doing counts ...if you go from 6 to 4 row you have lost 30 percent and if it doesn't rain it could be more and at one point a rain won't help.....other than to help turn the crop....

we are just about there.

And don't forget when it was dry back at 5th leaf ...those heads are not as long as they should be for the groceries applied.

[SASKFARMER3]

One positive side no sloughs so up and down.

Yes growing degree days are higher than other years it’s coming fast time to get the crew back from Holliday’s in a week or two.


Some times a mile over is nice and it just because of showers

[quadtrac]

Crop going backwards for sure.

10 year wheat yields 70-90 be happy to crack 55 this year and if it doesn’t rain soon that won’t happen.

10 year canola yield is 45-65 this year hoping to crack 40 but same story it’s going backwards and desperately needs rain.

[seldomseen]

Things here in NE Sask look good and we have had no rain since early July. My clay is a curse most of the time but then there are times it helps. July temps were cooler except for the last couple days. All I want now is more of the same warm and dry.

I have not drove anywhere to see what surrounding areas look like but my guess is all the NE looks good and will be harvesting in about 10-14 days.

[seldomseen]

Provably harvesting Mustard by early next week
Won't have much left after filling my 10 bushel/acre contract

Lots of poor looking Durum as well, funny how durum was around $ 7 when I started farming in 1973
45 years later and same price
Dad bought a brand new 4430 JD for 17000, you can still buy them for that but it'll have 15000 Hours !

That must be a magic number for 4430's! I bought one in 1998 with 6000 hours for 17000.