Friday Crop Report on a Thursday!

[AlbertaFarmer5]

https://aeon.co/essays/why-luck-might-be-subjective-and-not-part-of-the-world https://aeon.co/essays/why-luck-might-be-subjective-and-not-part-of-the-world


Just click on the little picture of an earth, a box will pop up, paste your link in that box.

[grefer]

I believe in making your own luck. But I do believe In dumb luck. Who you were born to, inherittances, and grandpas ten paid for quarters have contributed to a lot of farming successes out there. Hate to say it, but around me, many or most all, have had dumb luck.

Inheriting seven quarters? Good management? Having daddy co-sign? Good management? Inheriting land from a friend of grandpas? Good management? Marrying a woman whose grandpa dies and leaves her a few million? Good management? 😂

Y’all can’t say there is not a huge degree of luck that has helped most get ahead?

The key is not to begrudge the blessed folks, and recognize we did not all start at the same square, with the same token. I look at every farm around me, and yes there are good managers. But every single one, including mine, has had varying degrees of luck, or good fortune. Some more than others. Some less.

Probably easier for those who struggle, to actually see it and notice it.

Heading out to make some of my own!

Honestly, I dont see luck as having a huge influence in who are the winners and who are the losers over the long term in my area. You might be surprised sheepwheat how fast some pissed away the farm back in the eighties. Was that bad luck or bad management? Mostly bad management as I remember it and those that survived are still farming today if they so desired. The farmers in my area almost without exception have found a way to survive and thrive through a lot of shit. Weather,increasing costs, poor rail service, increasing land and rental costs, etc. Some have paid a heavy price with their personal life as the farm came first but the farm survived. We have some that didnt start with much and now have quite an operation through good farming and extremely hard work. We have some that yes stepped into an existing farm operation but have grown that opportunity and survived. Luck had little to do with any of it. These farm managers are tough buggers and many of the systemic problems we all face would be solved if they were in charge.

[SASKFARMER3]

Its a combination of both but yes management lets you see whats coming or has occurred and how do you deal with it and move on.

I call it luck that back in the early 80s I was drinking beer in Saskatoon and didn't listen to the real estate guy that one boxing day. " that they weren't making any more land and now is the time to buy" $850,000.00 was the price of 5 Dad and I would have put up land and the RBC was borrowing me the money. I would have lost it in the next five years.

I own three of the five today and paid a lot less.

Moral of the story is what I call luck that I had classes and management that we realized it doesn't make sense.

Now does history repeat, you bet yesterday a real estate agent was at our place and wow the F#$K said the same thing I heard back in the 80s they aren't making any more and now is the time to SELL.

No, I am not selling the farm, maybe doing the liquidation of an asset 50 km away.

Is it luck finding a company to pay to much or management knowing we have topped as an industry and its time to make some coin.

I know others who post on here seeing the same thing.

Management or Luck?

[farmaholic]

Some people make business decisions and some make emotional decisions.

I will agree to a degree with GF and AF5...but will put it in my own words and include "luck"...its how you manage the good or bad luck along the way.

[ajl]

Now does history repeat, you bet yesterday a real estate agent was at our place and wow the F#$K said the same thing I heard back in the 80s they aren't making any more and now is the time to SELL.

No, I am not selling the farm, maybe doing the liquidation of an asset 50 km away.

Sell fast before all the export customers are broke: Turkey, India, Pakistan, Mexico, and the big one China. Not to mention Japan, the most heavily indebted per capita nation in the world. Export markets will resemble a food aid program in 10 yrs. See post on Lira. Make sure you get $USD from sale. This go round could make the 80's a picnic.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Now does history repeat, you bet yesterday a real estate agent was at our place and wow the F#$K said the same thing I heard back in the 80s they aren't making any more and now is the time to SELL.

No, I am not selling the farm, maybe doing the liquidation of an asset 50 km away.

Sell fast before all the export customers are broke: Turkey, India, Pakistan, Mexico, and the big one China. Not to mention Japan, the most heavily indebted per capita nation in the world. Export markets will resemble a food aid program in 10 yrs. See post on Lira. Make sure you get $USD from sale. This go round could make the 80's a picnic.

Do you expect that the citizens of those countries will be starving to death in 10 years, since they can no longer afford to import food?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

So all the good managers have good luck and all the bad managers have bad luck? What happens if a bad manager has good luck and a good manager has bad luck?

The bad manager will likely squander the opportunity, incorrectly attributing the cause of the event, and it's future probability, setting him/herself up for future failure when the "luck" fails to materialize without good management to cause it.

The good manager will learn from the event make changes to management to avoid such "bad luck" in the future, possibly failing and having to pick up the pieces and move on.

Two posters on this site are prime examples, one has moved to greener pastures twice and is in the middle of an epic drought in an otherwise reliable area, haven't heard any whining or laying blame. One complains about nearly everything, but stays in the same area, and rarely offers anything positive which is being done to mitigate the problems encountered repeatedly.

[ajl]

Do you expect that the citizens of those countries will be starving to death in 10 years, since they can no longer afford to import food?

Yes. Poverty and hunger around the globe is once again on the rise. Most obvious example is Venezuela

[SASKFARMER3]

You never see the leaders of these so-called countries with all the big ideas starving.

But the idiots that vote them in Oh yea they get the shaft.