Alberta Drought Map

[GDR]

The map says the crops around calgary are a write off but they looked pretty good when I went through there a couple weeks ago. They got rain too.

Calgary area has been getting little showers to keep them green but still not enough for good crops, had a good shot of hail and rain there about 10 days ago. All based on normal expectations and point of view what is good vs bad. A "poor" crop in one area may be viewed as a "good" crop in another. But everyone budgets based on what their area should produce.

I'm an hour north of Calgary, we are dry, for sure drier than Calgary which is completely abnormal in itself, guys are starting to pull cows from pasture and crops have burnt up pretty bad. Gonna be a tough year around here I think.

AB5 we didn't get any forecasted rain either, same deal all summer!

[AlbertaFarmer5]

AB5 we didn't get any forecasted rain either, same deal all summer!

I looked at the radar at one point this morning, there was an absolute straight line where the rain stopped just west of here as it moved north.

I've got relatives from Delburne area east of Red Deer, sounds like it is even worse there than here.


Very true that it is all relative to expectations. I'm sure if I posted pictures of my crops, hay or pastures, I'd get laughed off of Agriville for complaining, but we are in a guaranteed rain area where growing season is typically our limiting factor, rarely moisture, so our expectations are high. I've never seen flower blast in canola before, but it is everywhere this year. Maybe those late flowers wouldn't have amounted to much anyways, but fields went from yellow to white to green in a few short days.

[sumdumguy]

I no longer put much stock in them anymore either.

A few years ago we got lack of moisture insurance through AFSC as an alternative to crop insurance. After a ridiculously dry spring and summer with very little sping soil moisture (At least according to the alfalfa which wilted in may), We were informed that we had had an average year , And insurance would not be paying out.

Did some inquiring and discovered that it is entirely modeled, not measured. I expect these maps are the same thing , Models based on radar.

That said, I don't doubt that some areas are one in 100 years dry right now, on certain time frames.
Not that my memory is long enough to prove or disprove that.

That doesn’t sound right to me. If Alberta is like Saskatchewan, hundreds of weather stations are scattered around the province. Surely some one is able to gather the indormation and use actual information to declare necessary moisture amounts for crop production - prolly when you don’t get rain from May 25 - Aug 2, you might suspect a drought?

[woodland]

I no longer put much stock in them anymore either.

A few years ago we got lack of moisture insurance through AFSC as an alternative to crop insurance. After a ridiculously dry spring and summer with very little sping soil moisture (At least according to the alfalfa which wilted in may), We were informed that we had had an average year , And insurance would not be paying out.

Did some inquiring and discovered that it is entirely modeled, not measured. I expect these maps are the same thing , Models based on radar.

That said, I don't doubt that some areas are one in 100 years dry right now, on certain time frames.
Not that my memory is long enough to prove or disprove that.

You’re not alone AF5. We had the exact same situation here a couple of years ago as well. They modeled the spring soil moisture and said we were at 175% of normal when our pasture never even turned green that whole year on the higher ground. This supposed surplus offset the very low rainfall through the summer and came out to a normal year which meant no payment. We fed a super b every week of pellets or oats all summer because our pasture was a disaster. We appealed to afsc and had a hearing but nothing happened. One of the board members slept through most of our presentation which really made you feel like you were being heard.

I don’t gamble (at a casino) but this insurance sure feels like it at times.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

You’re not alone AF5. We had the exact same situation here a couple of years ago as well. They modeled the spring soil moisture and said we were at 175% of normal when our pasture never even turned green that whole year on the higher ground. This supposed surplus offset the very low rainfall through the summer and came out to a normal year which meant no payment. We fed a super b every week of pellets or oats all summer because our pasture was a disaster. We appealed to afsc and had a hearing but nothing happened. One of the board members slept through most of our presentation which really made you feel like you were being heard.

I don’t gamble (at a casino) but this insurance sure feels like it at times.

Which is why we go without. I don't gamble, and I'd rather take responsibility and do everything I can to improve our odds against mother nature.

Spring soil moisture was the issue in our case too, I'd done lots of digging with the excavator that spring and there was none, when alfalfa can't find moisture, there is none. Then the rest of the summer we were just in a pocket that missed the rain.

Only reason we had the insurance is our bank kept insisting, and I kept neglecting it until too late( on purpose), Finally humoured them by buying the moisture insurance on some crop acres on a record dry spring, since it was the only way we could ever collect, since full crop insurance yields are so low compared to our average. After that year, they finally agreed and waived the requirement for crop insurance for us.

[Taiga]

I don’t live near there myself, but I have friends in Calgary that tell me that is has been a really wet summer there. Now they aren’t farmers, so hard to know their perspective, but they claim it has been raining steadily, almost ‘every day’ they say. What’s the truth?

[Hamloc]

I looked at the radar at one point this morning, there was an absolute straight line where the rain stopped just west of here as it moved north.

I've got relatives from Delburne area east of Red Deer, sounds like it is even worse there than here.


Very true that it is all relative to expectations. I'm sure if I posted pictures of my crops, hay or pastures, I'd get laughed off of Agriville for complaining, but we are in a guaranteed rain area where growing season is typically our limiting factor, rarely moisture, so our expectations are high. I've never seen flower blast in canola before, but it is everywhere this year. Maybe those late flowers wouldn't have amounted to much anyways, but fields went from yellow to white to green in a few short days.

AB5 lived in the Delburne are my whole life. Depends where you are this year. Pockets of not bad, odd place with a heavy shower and other places dried right out. I know compared to 2002 our crops will yield much better. Also had grasshoppers in 2002 but it did start raining first of August in 2002 and gave us fall pasture. That will be a serious issue this year. Pastures are very short. Anticipating that I will start feeding cows early in September if not sooner. Fall will be interesting.

[grassfarmer]

That's the issue I see here Hamloc, 02,03,09 were all terrible dry for part of the growing season but then it broke down and you got regrowth. Doesn't seem to be the case here this year - other than about 2 weeks of good growing conditions in early June it's been dry all the way through. Hate to think what happens if we don't get some recharge before winter - well water will be an issue for many around here. People are starting to pull cattle from pastures now but I don't know where they are going or what they are going to be eating.