Alberta Drought Map

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Large areas now in the 1 in 100 year drought category for the past 365 days. And that includes a massive snowfall late this winter which largely ran off of frozen ground, indicating that the useful rain is even worse than it looks. Here, if you could extend that map back another 60 days it would look even more dire, since early June of 17 was our last meaningful rain.

Here, we are now at 25 % of normal precip for the past 30 days, and appear to have missed this weekends system yet again.

Have travelled between Edmonton and Calgary, mostly west of highway 2, a couple jaunts east of highway 2 in recent days. Some very depressing crops, All pastures are beyond depressing, 2nd cut has turned shades of grey where there was any plants, and a few almost good crops that stand out like a sore thumb, must be a few really good farmers, or patches really exceptional soil, or really random rainfall.

[jazz]

Alberta, doesnt matter about the drought maps, its always a bumper crop according to the reports.

Repeat that slowly, always a bumper, always a bumper.

An then the seasonal price drop makes sense.

[farmaholic]

I dont want people to think we're sitting on some "amazing" crop. My disclaimer in a past post was it doesn't take much to beat last year's results HERE.

AND everyone has different standards.

[grassfarmer]

That map conflicts very much with this Ag Canada Drought Monitor one of conditions July 31st.



Source website http://www.agr.gc.ca/eng/programs-and-services/drought-watch/canadian-drought-monitor/?id=1463575104513 http://http://www.agr.gc.ca/eng/programs-and-services/drought-watch/canadian-drought-monitor/?id=1463575104513

According to this there are only 2 small spots that are in "severe drought" which is still 2 categories below "exceptional drought" which they classify as 2 times in 100 years. A big swath of farm country is experiencing no drought at all according to this map - maybe that's where predictions of good crops are coming from?

[bucket]

Once again ...who benefits from manipulated information or reports. ...

And why are the reports different if we all buy into the new climate science?

For it to be accurate going out 50 years doesn't the data from the sources going in have to be consistent?

[jazz]

The map says the crops around calgary are a write off but they looked pretty good when I went through there a couple weeks ago. They got rain too.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

OK, grassfarmer, I admit, I just colored that map with my new crayons this morning. I wanted to get some sympathy, it seems unfair that SF3 gets all the sympathy for his latest disaster. Areas with half of normal moisture for over a year are not suffering at all, feed is plentiful and cheap, pastures will last till November, and it will be another bin buster.

[grassfarmer]

I wasn't doubting your map, more so the Ag Canada one. It certainly doesn't seem to reflect what I see in the areas I've been in this summer.

[Sheepwheat]

Making maps is impossible to do with any accuracy on a good year. The way rainfall hit, I am surprised they even try to put one out. Considering the size of the grain belt, and the few reporting stations left, they may as well be throwing darts at a map on the wall, and blobbing them in with Perty colours.

I rarely believe maps anymore. I wouldn’t put much stock in them.

[Horse]

Is it just my computer or does everyone have trouble reading those maps, they all come so blurry I can't read.

[LEP]

Is it just my computer or does everyone have trouble reading those maps, they all come so blurry I can't read.

That depends, are you running your floppy disc drive at the same time as you are uploading the thread? Your hamster may not be running fast enough.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I no longer put much stock in them anymore either.

A few years ago we got lack of moisture insurance through AFSC as an alternative to crop insurance. After a ridiculously dry spring and summer with very little sping soil moisture (At least according to the alfalfa which wilted in may), We were informed that we had had an average year , And insurance would not be paying out.

Did some inquiring and discovered that it is entirely modeled, not measured. I expect these maps are the same thing , Models based on radar.

That said, I don't doubt that some areas are one in 100 years dry right now, on certain time frames.
Not that my memory is long enough to prove or disprove that.

[GDR]

The map says the crops around calgary are a write off but they looked pretty good when I went through there a couple weeks ago. They got rain too.

Calgary area has been getting little showers to keep them green but still not enough for good crops, had a good shot of hail and rain there about 10 days ago. All based on normal expectations and point of view what is good vs bad. A "poor" crop in one area may be viewed as a "good" crop in another. But everyone budgets based on what their area should produce.

I'm an hour north of Calgary, we are dry, for sure drier than Calgary which is completely abnormal in itself, guys are starting to pull cows from pasture and crops have burnt up pretty bad. Gonna be a tough year around here I think.

AB5 we didn't get any forecasted rain either, same deal all summer!

[AlbertaFarmer5]

AB5 we didn't get any forecasted rain either, same deal all summer!

I looked at the radar at one point this morning, there was an absolute straight line where the rain stopped just west of here as it moved north.

I've got relatives from Delburne area east of Red Deer, sounds like it is even worse there than here.


Very true that it is all relative to expectations. I'm sure if I posted pictures of my crops, hay or pastures, I'd get laughed off of Agriville for complaining, but we are in a guaranteed rain area where growing season is typically our limiting factor, rarely moisture, so our expectations are high. I've never seen flower blast in canola before, but it is everywhere this year. Maybe those late flowers wouldn't have amounted to much anyways, but fields went from yellow to white to green in a few short days.

[sumdumguy]

I no longer put much stock in them anymore either.

A few years ago we got lack of moisture insurance through AFSC as an alternative to crop insurance. After a ridiculously dry spring and summer with very little sping soil moisture (At least according to the alfalfa which wilted in may), We were informed that we had had an average year , And insurance would not be paying out.

Did some inquiring and discovered that it is entirely modeled, not measured. I expect these maps are the same thing , Models based on radar.

That said, I don't doubt that some areas are one in 100 years dry right now, on certain time frames.
Not that my memory is long enough to prove or disprove that.

That doesn’t sound right to me. If Alberta is like Saskatchewan, hundreds of weather stations are scattered around the province. Surely some one is able to gather the indormation and use actual information to declare necessary moisture amounts for crop production - prolly when you don’t get rain from May 25 - Aug 2, you might suspect a drought?