Canola

[bucket]

Bucket, it feels as if you are misinformed. Sure an American producer can deliver his grain now and sell later, but they have to pay storage charges to the grain co! Cheaper to store at home than in commercial facility. Over the last ten years the American system has had a massive build out of on farm storage. As for me I can’t think of a better place to invest money than storage. Lots of storage and free cash are the key during times like this.

You don't think the American graincos didn't take a page from what's going on in Canada....

Also don't forget the 12billion adhoc payment and many before them...

If the bins have to empty to pay input bills might as well be at the elevator...

Remember the governmentin the states built it...they also have requirements for reporting...

If I had my farm and equipment paid for....I would probably start building bins. ...and manage it differently but it's got to move and the price differential isn't typically good enough to store...

2016 and 2017 the best price for lentils was off the combine...or the risk of preselling without knowing grade which was the same price off the combine.

[Agvocate]

Some local spot basis sure are "negative"!!! anywhere from -$35 to almost -$44. I guess they don't want it?!?!?!?!?


Edit, add the word "spot"

Large part of basis is rail freight. Annual increases in freight are 5-7%. If everything else remained equal (fob levels, handling margin, etc) basis would be $2/mt wider each year to get to the same price at port to pay the railway.

[farming101]

Freight? Well I guess it depends where you farm.

[Agvocate]

Freight? Well I guess it depends where you farm.

[ATTACH]3270[/ATTACH]

Yes if you want to set yourself up to deliver against canola futures and hold the stocks in your registered elevator until the owner of the futures calls for it I guess that map would be relevant to spot basis levels in Aug/Sep. Of course Nov futures don't hit delivery until November so it wouldn't do much for movement or cash flow in the near term.

[farmaholic]

Large part of basis is rail freight. Annual increases in freight are 5-7%. If everything else remained equal (fob levels, handling margin, etc) basis would be $2/mt wider each year to get to the same price at port to pay the railway.

So when the basis is half, or less than half, of what it is now GrainCos or Railways are handling it for nothing? I don't think so....

[Agvocate]

So when the basis is half, or less than half, of what it is now GrainCos or Railways are handling it for nothing? I don't think so....

No, that's not what i said at all. I said IF everything else remained unchanged that is how much basis would widen annually to cover the cost of freight to port. Of course they will still be handling it for a profit, and I realize the other variables change daily, just trying to highlight how much per year an increase we are paying to CP and CN to move grain to port.

[farmaholic]

Ok thank you Agvocate

[Oliver88]

Canola prices have been creeping up and rebounding over the last month.
Hopefully trend will continue.

Lower canola yields than 2017 we here on Agriville.
Weak CDN $
Demand?

[Agvocate]

Weak close today. Breaking through the support line. With the soybean S&D as sloppy as it has been in a long time and the yields south of the border, have to think this will open up canola to the downside in the near term.

[errolanderson]

U.S. / China meeting this week could set the stage for soybean price direction heading into Sept. Trump appears almost conceding that nothing of consequence will come out of these discussions.

Markets will tell us all soon . . . .