Canola

[farming101]

Freight? Well I guess it depends where you farm.

[Agvocate]

Freight? Well I guess it depends where you farm.

[ATTACH]3270[/ATTACH]

Yes if you want to set yourself up to deliver against canola futures and hold the stocks in your registered elevator until the owner of the futures calls for it I guess that map would be relevant to spot basis levels in Aug/Sep. Of course Nov futures don't hit delivery until November so it wouldn't do much for movement or cash flow in the near term.

[farmaholic]

Large part of basis is rail freight. Annual increases in freight are 5-7%. If everything else remained equal (fob levels, handling margin, etc) basis would be $2/mt wider each year to get to the same price at port to pay the railway.

So when the basis is half, or less than half, of what it is now GrainCos or Railways are handling it for nothing? I don't think so....

[Agvocate]

So when the basis is half, or less than half, of what it is now GrainCos or Railways are handling it for nothing? I don't think so....

No, that's not what i said at all. I said IF everything else remained unchanged that is how much basis would widen annually to cover the cost of freight to port. Of course they will still be handling it for a profit, and I realize the other variables change daily, just trying to highlight how much per year an increase we are paying to CP and CN to move grain to port.

[farmaholic]

Ok thank you Agvocate

[Oliver88]

Canola prices have been creeping up and rebounding over the last month.
Hopefully trend will continue.

Lower canola yields than 2017 we here on Agriville.
Weak CDN $
Demand?

[Agvocate]

Weak close today. Breaking through the support line. With the soybean S&D as sloppy as it has been in a long time and the yields south of the border, have to think this will open up canola to the downside in the near term.

[errolanderson]

U.S. / China meeting this week could set the stage for soybean price direction heading into Sept. Trump appears almost conceding that nothing of consequence will come out of these discussions.

Markets will tell us all soon . . . .

[bigzee]

Little off topic, but if China and the USA can somehow settle their differences watch how fast the pea price will fall.

[errolanderson]

Little off topic, but if China and the USA can somehow settle their differences watch how fast the pea price will fall.

The flip side of this is; no China/U.S. kiss and make-up and Cdn pea bids could have some wheels by late fall.

Trump now threatening more China tariffs. This will cut China's GDP, but it will also cut the U.S. GDP.

The world economy is far bigger than that of the U.S. Trade patterns will adjust. And China has the ability to extend this trade war far longer than the U.S. ever expected (IMO).

[SASKFARMER3]

I'm on the side that thinks the markets will be in for one **** of a surprise from Canada.

No one other than farmers is saying the 2018 crop is a shit show.

But the experts still don't want to admit what the final yields will be like.

Comments now like its an Average crop.

Ah is that an average before the rain years or an average of the 80s crops or are crops like we use to get.

40 hrs
38 peas
33 canola
65 barley
100 oats
ETC ETC ETC.

You can pound all the products they have for sale and guess what mother nature still deals the cards.

[beaverdam]

In 49 years of growing canola on this farm, I've never seen a stand so variable in maturity. Dead ripe to blooming, and the variability is not necessarily from low land to high ground, it's on the flat. The scary part is the dead ripe stuff doesn't even have nice seed like most years, like half seeds. Usually those plants have the biggest plump seeds of all. Makes me wonder if the rest of the plants, that are at the true swathing stage, will even make anything. Love swathing canola in +30'C weather.