Argie Peso/Grain Ramifications/Errol

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Group . . . Global emerging market crisis appears rapidly deteriorating . . . .

Emerging markets are seen as South America, South Africa, India, Indonesia and Turkey. The rising USD plus fallout in global commodity prices and now stir-in Trump trade tensions have contributed to the recent collapse in these currency markets.

The sudden spike in interest rates is an effort to stop the currency fallout. IMF bailouts may be just throwing more bad money after nothing (IMO). To me, deflationary pressures will continue across global raw commodity prices.

The problem is soaring debt and the inability to service it. The currency collapse just magnifies this concern.

Again more questions than answers, but this situation suggests being prudent marketers. Increased price volatility appears possible for both commodities and equities heading into the 4th quarter

Taking a somewhat longer term perspective, those are the very reasons why commodities should do well going forward. Most of the countries/regions you listed are large commodity producers or exporters, and are our direct competitors, for example, Indonesia is the biggest palm oil exporter by far.

Economic and political instability, high interest rates, rampant inflation, low commodity prices, increasing taxes on their only income sources, and in the case of South Africa, land expropriation and murder, are not factors that are conducive to increasing production. Zimbabwe is a prime example of how these things turn out.

[furrowtickler]

Taking a somewhat longer term perspective, those are the very reasons why commodities should do well going forward. Most of the countries/regions you listed are large commodity producers or exporters, and are our direct competitors, for example, Indonesia is the biggest palm oil exporter by far.

Economic and political instability, high interest rates, rampant inflation, low commodity prices, increasing taxes on their only income sources, and in the case of South Africa, land expropriation and murder, are not factors that are conducive to increasing production. Zimbabwe is a prime example of how these things turn out.

Very true for sure

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Venezuela is another prime example of how these scenario's play out.