Killing frost last night.

[furrowtickler]

I had the newest two years ago they are like Trudeau just not ready.

They will but I think4 years still out willl definitely seed again till then canola hrs barley and two fields peas can’t quitlike a drug

The newest two years ago are down the ladder already , lots has changed and is changing in beeeding and faster than we all thought . Also in fertility, seed rates , spacing ... a lot has been learned the past two years in non traditional areas for soybeans

[furrowtickler]

Will be interesting to hear the next crop reports spin on this .
I vividly remember 2004 , Sask crop experts saying after that frost that it was nothing to be concerned about that it was just lite patchy frost in a few low lying areas ...... lying being the key word there.
Millions were lost that morning in grades and yield loss . Not saying it will be that bad after this morning, but potentially it could be in a huge area that is 2 weeks behind normal due to smoke and cool wet weather the past 10-12 days .

[furrowtickler]

Interesting..... not a word on Howard Lehman’s Canadian morning news

[furrowtickler]

Canola council has some good info on their web site regarding frost .

[Bowerpower]

What do you expect the buyers to say. “Canola is all ****ed, here’s 20 bucks a bushel”. Of course they will down play the frost. It kind there job to extract what they can from the market. I think a bit of a price jump is warranted if they want to secure some more tonnes but hey they may have to pay a lot more down the road... I’m hoping to take advantage of that. And of course it sucks for you guys that have lost a bunch of yield and quality. I’m combining 25 bushels soybeans that would have been close to 50 with a good shot of rain 3-4 weeks ago.

[Rareearth]

Canola Council

Here are the four scenarios that these two questions present, and considerations for all four.
1. Crop is past 30% seed colour change (SCC) on the main stem, plants have relatively few side branches, and heavy frost is forecast.
This is not the ideal SCC for yield, but at 30% SCC, most of the seeds will be firm to roll. You may want cut this ahead of the frost to prevent locking in green on the most immature seeds. Note however that crop needs to dry down to a seed moisture level of 20% or less to be relatively safe from the damaging effects of frost. This can take three good drying days, so swathing has to occur at least three days before the frost to achieve this benefit.
2. Crop is past 30% SCC, green seeds are firm to roll, and light frost is forecast.
The degree of frost is hard to predict, so will a light frost really be light? That is a question we can’t answer here, but going on the gut feeling that frost will be light, leave this crop standing. It would have to be cut about three days before the frost to get pods dried enough to keep them from popping open.
3. Crop is at 5% SCC and heavy frost is forecast.
At 5% SCC on the main stem, this crop is really green and a heavy frost will bring high yield loss and lock in high amounts of green for those seeds that do make it to the combine hopper. The best option is probably to leave it standing and take your chances that the frost is light and the crop will have a few more days to mature. Each additional day standing will benefit this crop. Research conducted by the Canola Council of Canada over approximately 28 site-years indicates that significant yield increases could be achieved by swathing at 60-70% seed colour change (SCC). Swathing at 60% SCC resulted in 8% more yield (which was equivalent to about 3 bu./ac.) than at 30-40% SCC, 12% more yield than at 10-20% SCC, and 19% more yield than swathing before 10% SCC. Swathing at 5% SCC in anticipation of the frost could reduce yields by 20% or more.
4. Crop is at 5% SCC and light frost is forecast
This crop will benefit from all the standing time it can get. Wait out the frost, but monitor afterwards to assess the degree of pod damage and increased risk of shelling if left standing after a harder frost than expected.
Further considerations:
Many nights of frost. If frost is forecast for several nights in a row, canola with a high percentage of green immature seed might not have much chance to mature further. Growers could cut the crop and accept that any yield potential from immature seed is likely lost.
Logistics and timing. If growers still have a lot of canola to swath, they may need all the swathing days they can get. If today is a good day to swath, then go swathing but know that any yield potential from immature seed will likely be lost.
Crop standing for straight combining. Frost can actually be a benefit as it provides some extra dry-down of green stems. Note, however, that frost at the point when pods are brittle and quite dried down will likely have little-no impact, and pod-shatter tolerance can also help maintain pod integrity if the crop wasn’t quite that dry yet.

[Sheepwheat]

-1 the low here but didn't last long, icy frost in places. Lots of green canola here but I think (and hope) it didn't hurt much. Have had a few cool nights this fall so think the plants are hardened off a bit.

2004. Was minus half a degree for maybe a couple hours. Green canola? Lots was zero yield, literally zero bushels per acre. I do not think watery canola seeds in pods harden off. Spring seedlings can harden off, sure, but I would dispute that green immature seeds do.

[Sheepwheat]

Phone is lighting up with 'Canola Specials' alerts. Wont help the neighbours entire canola crop its a write off. I knocked ours down Saturday because of the forecast. Should be ok in the swath I hope. Was -3 for many hours. On Saturday Enviro Canada predicted 0, Weather Network +2, and accuweather -2. Accuweather for the win.

How advanced was your canola? My experience tells me swathed or not, it matters not, esp at minus 3. Have had it barely register zero and fry the crap out of it in the swath.

You may be ok, just trying to let you know what may happen.

[jazz]

Its always a bumper crop. ABC. Unless an asteroid strikes the continent, the market will be unaffected.

My neighbor put up a massive number of bins this year. Plans on holding.

I have neighbors that hold back a percentage of their crop every year. Dont know if they report it to anyone. We should all be doing that and let that market guess and when a glitch in pricing happens like last year when durum hit $10, we empty the bins and punish those f*ckers.

But no, BTOs have to truck out of the field right to the terminal. These guys are in constant need of revolving cash flow. No credit line or cash advances. Just dump it all.

[Oliver88]

2004. Was minus half a degree for maybe a couple hours. Green canola? Lots was zero yield, literally zero bushels per acre. I do not think watery canola seeds in pods harden off. Spring seedlings can harden off, sure, but I would dispute that green immature seeds do.

Going by memory on August 20, 2004 it hit -5C in a large portion of northeast Sask.......
There was lots of sample canola and all kinds of downgrading.

[Rareearth]

It was 10 days earlier than normal

Lucky it wasn’t a August frost

[the big wheel]

The problem is saskfarmer keeps having these Ndp and liberal barbecues all summer and while they sip fine wine and caviar (Russian imported through the DOnold). And stroll around drunk looking at those perfect crops with perfect rains so we then get these big crop projections.

And I wasn't even invited!!! Hahahaha