Canola ending stocks

[Rareearth]

Very interesting to see the canola ending stocks so high (about 2.5 million tons)

Crushers near empty before new crop was available?

Farmers holding to force buyers to bid market up?

Looks like no winners?

[errolanderson]

Very interesting to see the canola ending stocks so high (about 2.5 million tons)

Crushers near empty before new crop was available?

Farmers holding to force buyers to bid market up?

Looks like no winners?

Canola stocks are up 78% year-over-year, but the trade was expecting this. Data appears mostly neutral (IMO). But watcher may be the soybean market itself . . . and China's retaliation to the $200 billion of U.S. tariffs taking affect today.

The trade war between the U.S. and China appears likely to intensify and spill into 2019 . . . .

[Rareearth]

Daily agri news
“Canadian canola ending stocks as of July 31, 2018, came in at about a million tonnes above the previous year’s carryout, but were still well within trade expectations.

Canola supplies as of July 31 were estimated at 2.391 million tonnes by Statistics Canada, with 954,000 tonnes of that in commercial hands and 1.437 million tonnes on-farm. That compares with 1.342 million tonnes of total stocks at the same point the previous year, with most of the difference linked to a sharp increase in on-farm stocks. The five-year ending stocks average for canola is 1.9 million tonnes.”


I do t know of many/ any farmers that hold canola one year to the next( I don’t think of it as the new canary)

Those numbers imply that 10% of the crop is carried forward, just seems WAY to high?

[Partners]

When canola hit 12 bucks a few months ago..i am surprised all bins were not emptied..
More bull crap numbers..

[Guest]

ours were empty , and they normally aren't , didn't see the sense of turning down 12 bucks , more horseshit , nothing more , nothing less

[crusher]

New crop supplies start showing up first week or two of September. That's around five weeks or 10% of the year. If you crush/export even half of that then things get tight.

[macdon02]

Ignore the fundamentals. Look at July lows compared to July highs and the subsequent cycle the following July... it doesn't happen often.

[SASKFARMER3]

Isn't it funny that the amount the crop is short this year they say farmers have in there bins on the farm?

Well, you would have had to be a complete moron to keep grain over once it hit 12 last spring.

So my theory is this is a big scam number to make the price of Canola stay flat.

Honour among thieves.

Our bins were empty as of August 1 moved 50% of last years crop in the months of June and July.

[furrowtickler]

Where is this magic canola carry out ?
Why the reason for this carry out ? Cause the trains could not move it ? B/S .... elevators have been half empty here since June , rail cars showing up now and no grain ....... someone or group is lying to someone .

[bucket]

west coast numbers say boat backlog is building ...lots of space out west ...rail is moving a whopping 350000 tonnes a week... quorum will say its all good until about May 2019 when they recognize things should have been moving earlier because of early harvest and nice weather in august september....

Guys are binning everything because they have the room....but graincos know its got to come in eventually due to the paint addiction...

[farming101]

Western Canada is a big place.

By August 26 producers had delivered 780,500 t into the system. Assuming most of that is old stock(and ya there would be some new crop in the system by then) that would leave every third canola farmer with a couple thousand bushels of old crop kicking around on Aug 26. The other two thirds of the farmers don't have one seed left.

It's just a guess anyway. When looking at the whole of western Canada we didn't run out by July 31. That's for sure

[SASKFARMER3]

Good pint butyou would have had to be Complete idiot after it hit12 plus to store canola.

Some one is not telling the truth.

Ah bullshit stats in Canada.

Still funny the2018 crop shortfall is the same as the boost carry.

Magic with numbers for the buyers

[Partners]

We need zero carry over..then prices would be way better.