Here's hoping for an economic reset soon in ag

[cuban_assassin]

Who else looks forward to a down turn in the ag economy. Personally it can't happen soon enough. Land, labour and equipment costs have long past whats sustainable. These new young ag more than ever farmers who think farming is a breeze spending grandpa and daddys money bidding up land prices are in for a tough lesson! Its time for all the parasites who live off the farmer to find someone else to feed off of.

[the big wheel]

With all the oil under ground the oil industry will buy it all up and have farmer friends farm it even if for s loss just so they can control the land. These are different times. Other countries growing populations still need expanding food supply. And as much as there is developments other places we still don't get shot at while on the tractor which is somewhat of a plus for this area.

[15444]

In order for it to happen, you need the perfect trifecta. Collapse in all commodity prices, elimination of SM and skyrocketing 15%+ interest rates. That is the only way to slow down all the 'drunk' farmers.

But land prices can also be heavily affected by other resource industries, recreational enthusiasts and investment portfolios, both foreign and domestic.

What would open up a lot of land in this country to active farming is if we started taxing land held by foreign interests at 25% of assessed value. I have one quarter bordering me that hasn't be farmed in nearly 80 years. Purchased for taxes in 1962 for $260, is currently assessed at $15,000 and pays less than $50 a year in taxes. Tracked down 73 year-old owner who lives in Colorado to try and buy, but no way Jose. It's an investment and soon to go to the 3rd generation of owners who see it as an investment. There are quit a few quarters around here just like that. Ag groups have failed miserably to rectify this problem.

[Marusko]

I'm not sure what would be better for me. I'm one of these young guys "spending grandpa and daddys money" although can't seem to get a good shot at anything anyway. A downturn would give me opportunities. Then again, if there's no money in it due to the downturn, what's the point? Gamble and hope for better times. It's worked for some. Better keep my day job.

[Taiga]

I'm not sure what would be better for me. I'm one of these young guys "spending grandpa and daddys money" although can't seem to get a good shot at anything anyway. A downturn would give me opportunities. Then again, if there's no money in it due to the downturn, what's the point? Gamble and hope for better times. It's worked for some. Better keep my day job.

I keep a day job. Not enough money in farming to support a family, at current levels. The investment made to farm vs investment to start a many other types of businesses is huge. At one time it only cost $100,000 to buy a Tim Horton’s franchise, for example (just an example). Imagine what $100,000 buys you in the farming world - not much, it doesn’t go very far.

[Rareearth]

Cuban, carefull what you wish for and all the other unintended consequences.

“Misery likes company”

[fjlip]

I guess I had LOTS of help, but Dad and Grandpa willingly helped. So what? Young Gen, go for it, you have many years to pay for it and as it turns out, it has been a great run. Good luck!

[cuban_assassin]

Since the run up of commodity prices in 2008 land, seed, equipment have risen to unsustainable levels. But have the prices continued to rise...... no. We need a reset to reduce the risk factor. A large number of young people became interested in farming only after the rise in prices in 2008 and have aggressivley grown their farms and continue to pump old money into over valued land and equipment. We are now beginning to see on social media the ag more than ever generation starting to express how stressed they are and that they are having trouble with mental health. Its good they are talking about it and recognizing for what it is. BUT the reality is that's farming! Did you really think the good times would last forever! This is a very tough business to be in. We will see how committed to ag more than ever they are when the belt begins to tighten or when they gotta keep fixing old junk thats 25 plus years old cause they can't afford the new stuff. Its coming and the longer land and equipment continue their run up the harder its gonna be on every one!

[GDR]

I think it's needed too for the future of farming, guys have made poor decisions and gambled too much in recent years. Sooner things and people get smartened up the better, otherwise when it happens there will be major pain for everyone in the ag business. Curtail a few problems now or kill an industry.

Anyone that thinks profitability is bad now, boy you have no clue. We are making good money as an industry.

[Partners]

How much money do people think Dads and Grandpa's had?
Sweet tweet compared to the dollars it costs to run any size of farm today..

[bucket]

I have said this before ....6000 bushels bought a new combine in 1975....

Harvest got done with smaller combines and more farmers.....


If guys like growing more and making less per bushel it's not going to end well. ...

And this time when the write downs come it will really piss the careful guys off...


If land prices drop 10 percent there are guys underwater very quickly...

[farmaholic]

How much money do people think Dads and Grandpa's had?
Sweet tweet compared to the dollars it costs to run any size of farm today..

This is a very true statement. It isn't only the "money" the past generations had saved but also the paid for leverageable land they owned!

Well, I guess if daddy and grand pappy saved enough money for retirement so they never had to sell the farm at full market value to the next gen in order for them to have enough to retire on....that makes a difference too.

But think about what partners said...what is a new line of equipment worth and how much does it cost to put in a crop.

[SASKFARMER3]

I like the comment Daddy's money and Grampas money. Yea retiring and having a 100000 back in the 70s was ok or a 1000000 was great but after taxes and dividing between family really how far would that go. Maybe buy a quarter or two in the 70s then the 80s hit if you bought you lost as land dropped. Yea land went from a high in 1981 of 160 to 190 a quarter down to 54 and yes I bought at the lower. Ugly times only one who bought at high is still farming and bought nothing for 25 years. Remember history.

Fast forward today So your left 1,000,000.00 to 10,000,000.00 Land is again back at the top, my question is why the F#$K would you farm with that kind of money left to you other than a tax loss.

THe million can give you a nice check of $50000 a year and pay taxes on and have fun play farming at the size your at.

Or the ten million giving you $500000 at the size your at or let your kids play farm.

Sometimes I wonder if farmers really are that bright.

The land has value yes I agree with that but buying at today's price just to have more and it sure looks like a reset is coming. Yes, it happened before three times read history.

I know a couple for sure on here that are exiting at the top and good for them they see the reality in the game the real winners are the suppliers and equipment dealers and grain companies, farmers are dead last and do all the work for pennies. Any smart businessman knows when its time to exit. Relative in City who had a furniture store and was offered stupid money, really stupid money for his building said he thought about his decision for oh say 10 seconds and asked for a little more money and got it and didn't reopen the store but retired.

Farmers lets piss it away over a few more years and see if it gets a better attitude.

[farmaholic]

I've asked the question, "do you owe your kids the opportunity to farm"?
If they want to. The same one you got. Things are definitely at a different level now than when I was given my start.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yes, my kids have the opportunity to farm but get out, get an education and get a job to see what its like to work for someone other than your family then if you want you can come home and farm it's not going anywhere.