Canada Hyperinflation

[tmyrfield]

I started farming in the party of the late seventies.....this time it'

different.


They aren't making more land.
More and more people to feed.
Iceage coming food going to be hard to produce.

all of a sudden
more food than we can ever eat.
land is way over priced
inflation is taking away all our wealth
we need to increase interest rates
it takes a whole generation to get through this cycle.
throw in a bunch of shitty crops with really shitty prices...
30 year olds suddenly become 60 .
gawd where did my best years go ?
Well I'm still healthy and have my sense of humor as warped as it is....
and still doing what I love!
It'll get better!
Stay true to yourself and know that tough times make tough people!

[furrowtickler]

different.


They aren't making more land.
More and more people to feed.
Iceage coming food going to be hard to produce.

all of a sudden
more food than we can ever eat.
land is way over priced
inflation is taking away all our wealth
we need to increase interest rates
it takes a whole generation to get through this cycle.
throw in a bunch of shitty crops with really shitty prices...
30 year olds suddenly become 60 .
gawd where did my best years go ?
Well I'm still healthy and have my sense of humor as warped as it is....
and still doing what I love!
It'll get better!
Stay true to yourself and know that tough times make tough people!

Yup , it is what it is in this business of farming. But what we don’t need is people / ideals and or government regulations shitting on us continually that don’t have a clue as too the stress we all go through to support thousands and thousands of people and jobs .

[furrowtickler]

Most of us go through a tremendous amount of stress from day to day in regular farming activities let alone being attacked daily from outside forces that have zero common sense as to how we try to make a living. That’s the frustrating part.
End of the day too many are trying to take far too much from us primary producers that take all the risk . That needs to change .
Most of us in 40% of western Canada have already lost a huge amount of potential income to Mother Nature, we don’t need to get fuked over even more.

[tmyrfield]

furrow...AMEN

[Ache4Acres]

Inflation is a funny thing. Peoples memories are too short and they get old too fast to put it all together. Then technology advances and industrial manufacturing mechanization skew away inflation through lower quality mass produced goods.

Some of the best examples of inflationary measures are actually consumer services and leisure experiences.

Tell me what a rider game ticket cost in 1970 vs today? What was the cost of a ladies haircut in 1970 vs today? Round of golf at TorHill in 1979 vs today?

Inflation is needed to keep the economy “growing”, modern fiat money needs inflation to function.

Money has lost 90% of value in last 80 years and that is only accelerating. Anyone holding cash right now is destined to lose virtually all of it in the. Next 50 years. It will be inflated away.

There will never be major extended deflation again, that is a scare tactic to keep people from rebelling. If the markets turn sour modern governments have learned to print their way out of any mess. It works because every country is printing like mad and all currencies are racing down but relative to each other there is some fictious stability.

got bitcoin?

[furrowtickler]

Inflation is a funny thing. Peoples memories are too short and they get old too fast to put it all together. Then technology advances and industrial manufacturing mechanization skew away inflation through lower quality mass produced goods.

Some of the best examples of inflationary measures are actually consumer services and leisure experiences.

Tell me what a rider game ticket cost in 1970 vs today? What was the cost of a ladies haircut in 1970 vs today? Round of golf at TorHill in 1979 vs today?

Inflation is needed to keep the economy “growing”, modern fiat money needs inflation to function.

Money has lost 90% of value in last 80 years and that is only accelerating. Anyone holding cash right now is destined to lose virtually all of it in the. Next 50 years. It will be inflated away.

There will never be major extended deflation again, that is a scare tactic to keep people from rebelling. If the markets turn sour modern governments have learned to print their way out of any mess. It works because every country is printing like mad and all currencies are racing down but relative to each other there is some fictious stability.

got bitcoin?

You make a great point but it what has happened just the past 5 years that concerns me the most . Just think a bit about that . Two ticks up intrest rates and it’s all fuked IMO.

[Ache4Acres]

You make a great point but it what has happened just the past 5 years that concerns me the most . Just think a bit about that . Two ticks up intrest rates and it’s all fuked IMO.

I agree, There is no doubt that inflation is increasing. The last 5 years have been just a warmup.

The future has been notoriously difficult to predict. Imho i don’t think interest rates are going up anytime soon, unless they are increased in a very coordinated effort with massive simultaneous money printing. As you say increasing rates collapses the house of cards and that is not what they want. These interest rate hikes have been minuscule and mostly it is chin wagging to pretend that rates are increasing. They know they cant. Much more likely we see negative rates than 10% rates in next decade.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

You make a great point but it what has happened just the past 5 years that concerns me the most . Just think a bit about that . Two ticks up intrest rates and it’s all fuked IMO.

Which is why interest rates won't go there, at least not until the gig is up completely and they have lost control of rates. And when that happens, we will all reset. No one will purposely blow up the world economy with interest rates.

[furrowtickler]

Which is why interest rates won't go there, at least not until the gig is up completely and they have lost control of rates. And when that happens, we will all reset. No one will purposely blow up the world economy with interest rates.

Very true but it’s like the powers that be are turning the screws tighter and tighter and one can’t deny it’s affecting everything now , like a python slowly squeezing the prey.
Anyway , hopefully we can shake er off and still try to raise our families here back on the farm . Which is what most of us regardless of political views are trying to do and have been for a hundred plus years . Lest not we forget that .

[GDR]

Inflation is a tough one some things have gone up by multiples in a short time while others have not. Look how cheap electronics/ computers/ phones are, do way more for less money than they were 20yrs ago. The pickup truck thing sounds like it went up but it's not apples to apples cause they have so much more stuff in them, a fully loaded truck in the 80s meant power windows and a.c. Now a basic truck comes with full leather, built in WiFi, tracking system, sync, 8way power seats, cameras and the list goes on and on and everyone needs a high end truck not the basic. (On a side note, priced out a truck for the farm and asked about a plain vinyl floor without carpet and you gotta pay extra for that)
Most grocery items have been fairly stable but restaurant bills have gone up big time.
Housing costs and real estate likely the biggest increases.
Air travel hasn't gone up too much but hotels and taxis have.
Lots of brand new items fairly stable but parts and repairs have skyrocketed to the point it's usually cheaper to replace than repair.

I'm a bit leary of the U.S.trade situation, so many things we buy are either priced in U.S. dollars or either originate or warehouse in the states. If the tariff crap continues and the nafta deal doesn't pan out it will be a double whammy of added costs and likely a lower Can dollar. US goods could literally double in price in a short period of time. There will also be great opportunity for profiteering importers to source goods elsewhere.

[farmaholic]

Unrelated...but not. Today CTV Regina says the Regina housing market has cooled off. New buyers have to meet more stringent borrowing criteria. Houses stay on the market longer than before. Sellers can't be getting more than their asking price like before....more likely having to take less than their listed price now.

I just wonder if and when this will spill over into ag land. Funny part is I don't see machinery or inputs making the same adjustments lower. Although people working for those parts of the Ag Industry might feel the pain of being let go!

[GDR]

Funny part is I don't see machinery or inputs making the same adjustments lower. Although people working for those parts of the Ag Industry might feel the pain of being let go![/QUOTE]


So just thinking about this, suppose ag goes through a period of losses and machinery sales plummet - what happens? I would expect some little guys would be out of business but what do JD or CNH Do? Layoffs and close factories, maybe repurpose to other manufacturing? I don't know what their actual profit margins would be but assume they would be healthy in the first place and think they would still be writing off r&d costs anyhow that aren't out of pocket costs. I bet they would lower their prices to the point where they started moving machines, wouldn't doubt they could drop a couple hundred thousand off a combine if they had to and keep production going. Most often prices are set at what the buyer is willing to pay and not on a cost plus basis. For sure crop inputs are.

[farmaholic]

GDR. Maybe they would just build fewer combines.

Canola seed and pesticides probably wouldn't go down much. Fert might.

Just my opinion

[macdon02]

Which is why interest rates won't go there, at least not until the gig is up completely and they have lost control of rates. And when that happens, we will all reset. No one will purposely blow up the world economy with interest rates.

No... they won't purposely blow it up but with DJ setting highs again it signals they have room on rates. They'll grab everything they can when they can. If US and China make a trade deal (That's the big fish) before mid terms and Canada doesn't have an agreement in place .... its lights out here as our manufacturing system is based on imported Chinese materials.

[biglentil]

Whats the value of farmland with 14 cent lentils, $9 canola, and $5 durum? Farmers around the world are getting better a producing more. Other than Canola there are very few bright spots left. Land has had a hell of a run might be a good time to sell for some. They're are no right answers we could see interest rates rise if inflation heats up. If credit were to dry up asset prices tank. The economy is like a puppet on a string and its very difficult to know what the puppet masters will do next.