The intended end game of Canada US relations

[the big wheel]

First of all, I don't have a guy in federal politics. But more importantly, it wouldn't have mattered who was in charge, here, or south of the border, as the US becomes energy independent, they are also becoming more isolationist. It was at worst, bad timing that we ended up with a diametrically opposed political philosophies at this critical time. I don't see how the end result would be any different though if anyone else was in power, it is just easier to lay blame with this batch.

This isn't a temporary phenomenon, it will continue once sanity prevails in US politics, it would still have occurred, albeit at a more measured tone under Hillary, Conservatives would have been equally without bullets if they had been in power.

Yes, for the last half of our 150 year history it has worked fine, and that coincides with the US needing us in their fight of the cold war, and needing our energy. They woke up and realized the cold war is over, and they are nearly energy independent. Relations for the entirety of our collective memories just came to an end, our model only works if the US permits it to, and they just stopped letting us play in their sandbox.

As a beef farmer you must be aware that 75% of our beef exports go to the US, what does your business model look like without that customer?

Since you love Canada, please define Canada, and what you love about it, using only positives, not by comparing us to Americans.

What will price of beef be in the USA without Canadian beef?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

What will price of beef be in the USA without Canadian beef?

They export nearly as much as they import , And quickly closing that gap also.

[sumdumguy]

What will beef, hay, grain be without the US?

[grassfarmer]

Thank you for a sensible post AF5. Nice to see you honesty acknowledging that there is an insane leader to the South, that a Conservative Government would have had the same problems renegotiating NAFTA and there would likely be little difference in outcome regardless of which party was in power in Canada.

However, like Trump, you don't appear to understand how trade works. Canada - US trade relationships are deeply engrained with the companies and individuals doing the trading. The countries of Canada and the US don't trade with each other, their companies and citizens do. Americans buying Canadian products do so because they want them, either because the product is better than their own or the price is right for them to make money. America becoming "energy independent" is fine to talk about but do you think their businesses involved in buying AB bitumen and refining it on the gulf coast will just shutter their operations to MAGA? Of course they won't they are making money at what they are doing and have the infrastructure in place. How do you sort out the ownership in Canada's energy sector anyway - how much is US owned, how much is Chinese owned - it's simply not the case that "America" will stop buying oil from "Canada".
Similar on the beef file - the US won't stop buying Canadian beef or live cattle because we are completely integrated with them - with the American Cargill and Brazilian JBS controlling the slaughter of 90%+ of the Canadian herd. They do it because they make money, just as eastern Canadian businesses make money importing and retailing US beef.
Threats of tariffs if we don't sign the agreement the Americans doesn't work the way Trump thinks it does. We can counter tariff to match theirs and the net result is consumers pay more in each country but the net effect on trade is a wash. The companies exporting the products stand to make more money, not less with tariffs as the prices go up and the trade will still happen - because consumers from both countries want the others products.

[furrowtickler]

Sorry but there is absolutely zero common sense with any politicians these days regardless of party . It’s all about pandering and payouts to speacial groups and votes . It’s all become a farce now.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Thank you for a sensible post AF5. Nice to see you honesty acknowledging that there is an insane leader to the South, that a Conservative Government would have had the same problems renegotiating NAFTA and there would likely be little difference in outcome regardless of which party was in power in Canada.

However, like Trump, you don't appear to understand how trade works. Canada - US trade relationships are deeply engrained with the companies and individuals doing the trading. The countries of Canada and the US don't trade with each other, their companies and citizens do. Americans buying Canadian products do so because they want them, either because the product is better than their own or the price is right for them to make money. America becoming "energy independent" is fine to talk about but do you think their businesses involved in buying AB bitumen and refining it on the gulf coast will just shutter their operations to MAGA? Of course they won't they are making money at what they are doing and have the infrastructure in place. How do you sort out the ownership in Canada's energy sector anyway - how much is US owned, how much is Chinese owned - it's simply not the case that "America" will stop buying oil from "Canada".
Similar on the beef file - the US won't stop buying Canadian beef or live cattle because we are completely integrated with them - with the American Cargill and Brazilian JBS controlling the slaughter of 90%+ of the Canadian herd. They do it because they make money, just as eastern Canadian businesses make money importing and retailing US beef.
Threats of tariffs if we don't sign the agreement the Americans doesn't work the way Trump thinks it does. We can counter tariff to match theirs and the net result is consumers pay more in each country but the net effect on trade is a wash. The companies exporting the products stand to make more money, not less with tariffs as the prices go up and the trade will still happen - because consumers from both countries want the others products.

As an avowed free market capitalist, I sure do appreciate the lecture from the resident socialist and proponent of government intervention about how trade functions. I believe we had this same discussion a few months back where I pointed out all the ways that governments enable or dissuade trade with their policies.

Of course the US won't stop buying oil from Canada, they are getting it at a fraction of the world price, and are one of the only places able to process it, they have spent billions tooling up to be able to process it, and need it to blend with the stuff coming from shale. This current arrangement is nearly ideal for them, and getting better all the time, as spreads keep widening. Did you happen to read what I already wrote?

I learned math here in Canada, and apparently we must do it wrong, can you please explain in more detail how tariffs and counter tariffs cancel each other out? As a consumer, if I can buy a local product with no tariff, or an identical foreign product with an additional tariff built into the price, I will chose the cheaper product, regardless of how patriotic I might be. At the government coffers level that may be true, but certainly not for the producers or consumers.

The US can and previously did stop buying Canadian beef, 15 years ago, and look at what it did to our prices immediately. As they lose their beef export customers due to trade wars, they will need less imports from Canada. US Processors with excess capacity would suffer.

[grassfarmer]

Of course the US won't stop buying oil from Canada, they are getting it at a fraction of the world price, and are one of the only places able to process it, they have spent billions tooling up to be able to process it, and need it to blend with the stuff coming from shale. This current arrangement is nearly ideal for them, and getting better all the time, as spreads keep widening. Did you happen to read what I already wrote?

I did - your post was primarily about the US becoming "energy independent" which is the opposite of what you just wrote here.

The US can and previously did stop buying Canadian beef, 15 years ago, and look at what it did to our prices immediately. As they lose their beef export customers due to trade wars, they will need less imports from Canada. US Processors with excess capacity would suffer.

True enough, which is why I invested a lot of time of time between 2003-2010 trying to motivate other cattle producers and politicians to diversify our range of markets to avoid dependence on the US. Alas it was in vain, too many America worshippers and too much corporate control of the sector.
Like the oil though, US beef processors will continue to purchase Cdn live cattle when there is an opportunity for them to make money. The decisions will be made in Dakota Dunes, not Washington.