Trade Changes USMCA

[PFCanada]

Argentine farmer getting CAD $8/bu?

From the Rosario Board of Trade...

"With a lower offer and a strong demand, prices for 2018/19 wheat to be delivered next harvest (between Dec-18 and Jan-19) at Rosario’s terminal ports climbed to US$ 190/ton, the same value that is currently being offered for the grain to be delivered in July 2018, meaning that exporters are willing to give up any seasonal advantage. "

That's US $190 at terminal...not sure what it costs the grower to get it there. Anyway...$190 x 1.28= CAD $243.20/t or CAD $6.62/bu...and remember that is at Rosario port position, bit interior price.

Why are you so eager to make the Americans happy???

America is a competitor not a customer in wheat trade... And at that, a low quality exporter.

An Argentine farmer is getting $8 CAD/Bu for wheat. we are getting $6. We used to be the premium export market.



I don't think you understand... if we don't have a premium product to export, we may as well stop growing wheat, or get used to breakeven or at cost production... nobody wants glyphosate treated, fusarium infected, or ergot infested product. Especially not the EU and those other "premium" markets we need in order to be profitable.


No, and I agree with you on that. It also means that we won't be able to sell "saskatchewan durum" to a foreign customer, because we won't be able to certify that it's Canadian crop (since we can't have that on a declaration).

I also see this as a step backwards... other countries can trace every load of grain back to the field it came from, and we won't be allowed to trace which country it came from??? If it's being used domestically I don't see it as a concern but when selling into export markets - some of which are sensitive to US... "involvement"...

[Klause]

Argentine farmer getting CAD $8/bu?

From the Rosario Board of Trade...

"With a lower offer and a strong demand, prices for 2018/19 wheat to be delivered next harvest (between Dec-18 and Jan-19) at Rosario’s terminal ports climbed to US$ 190/ton, the same value that is currently being offered for the grain to be delivered in July 2018, meaning that exporters are willing to give up any seasonal advantage. "

That's US $190 at terminal...not sure what it costs the grower to get it there. Anyway...$190 x 1.28= CAD $243.20/t or CAD $6.62/bu...and remember that is at Rosario port position, bit interior price.

Most grain gets shipped direct to Port.

Rosario is the Interior and bids are usually lower than Bahia Blanca for instance.
Also Mills usually provide a premium over export prices (see link below) Argentina converts & exports a large chunk of their wheat as flour.

You're also quoting an article from July.
See this link:

http://www.bolsadecereales.com/descargar-documento5-0/cotizaciones-descargar Daily cash prices at ports/Mills (updated 4PM weekdays)

[wmoebis]

CWRS stands for Canadian Western Red Spring which Canada gaurentees that besides quality it was grown in the area of Canada that included west of the Ontario/Man border including Man, Sask ,Alberta and an area in BC known as the Peace. So can wheat grown out side this area in Canada now be sold as CWRS? Should we now do away with CERS etc.

[SASKFARMER3]

Canada a world power house

[sumdumguy]

Kavanaugh is confirmed. There must be a lot of peed off lefties👍

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Canada a world power house

Wow, that cartoon is eerily accurate to how many of us perceive both characters(Grass excepted of course).

It feels like we have misguided children in charge in Canada right now, every time I hear about any federal issue and the word prime minister comes up, I want to be reassured that the adults are in charge, as they have been the rest of my life, and then his name or his voice comes up and it is beyond disappointing.

Whereas Trump at least exudes confidence and gives the impression that the adults are in charge. In spite of his long list of shortcomings, and immoral character, if the sh*t hits the fan, I'd still rather know that he was in charge than the overgrown child we have.

[bgmb]

From the sounds of it the new nafta will make us and Canadian grain equal.

And a bunch of guys think this is great.


Except we are now officially no longer a premium market, won't get premiums at all for any cereals and on top of that are competing with a country that has far superior logistics infrastructure.


Way to go!!!

Klause, I am having a hard time following your logic here. In previous posts you talked about how the Canadian brand is ruined and the customers who want quality no longer want Canadian grain. Now you say we are going to lose our premium markets because of this new NAFTA deal? I think American and Canadian CWRRS/DNS are actually pretty equal quality. It almost never going to pay to ship american wheat into Canada because like you say our logistics system has no excess capacity. I do know that it is in our best interests as Western grain producers to keep our access to the american grain markets. I think it helps to keep our grain companies honest.

[farmaholic]

What would have been wrong the naming the agreement USCAM?

[bucket]

All I know is the dairy industry will receive a billion plus dollar handout because of the new trade deal....

Meanwhile as the harvest drags out and pulse prices are in the shitter while India supports their farmers with high prices and no one disputes it.....farmers in Western Canada will once again mortgage their farms against the treasuries of countries that support farmers...those countries are in the EU, the US, India, China , Russia etc....

[the big wheel]

All I know is the dairy industry will receive a billion plus dollar handout because of the new trade deal....

Meanwhile as the harvest drags out and pulse prices are in the shitter while India supports their farmers with high prices and no one disputes it.....farmers in Western Canada will once again mortgage their farms against the treasuries of countries that support farmers...those countries are in the EU, the US, India, China , Russia etc....

It's not just pulses that is the issue
Cost of drying, crop insurance. It covering the loss etc etc

[jamesb]

This wheat grade and variety issue is something my area is familiar with. Forgive me to oversimplify this.
Old wheat board days we had Dark northern in the US and Hard Red in Canada. In the last 25 years we have seen lots of US DNS varieties come north. Grandin and Alsen were a couple of varieties that had a lot of interest north of the border. When the grain commission / wheat board put the kibosh on those high yielding (at the time) I put it up to the old debates, keep the US wheat out of Canada, keeping Canadian HRS only on the CWB marketing program.
Fast forward a few years, CWB is gone, I can an do see to any US elevator that is prepared to buy Canadian wheat. Some don't want to comingle grain because of PL480 and other things. There was a couple year period post CWB that saw the Canadian basis way out of wack compared to the US elevators. Since then however basis level are similar on both sides of the border for the most part.
One of the sore points is that on the Canadian side regulations never were really changed post CWB to allow US wheat north , regardless of weather it made economic sense. Not far from us is the Ceres elevator at North Gate, that feeds directly into the BNSF rail line. It has been the case that it has been virtuously impossible for US farmers to haul into this elevator, even canola I understand. You can understand why a US farmer would get chocked up over that one, especially when the only rail goes directly into the US. That being said, back to DNS versus HRS, a number of years ago a lot of us closer to the border were growing the higher yielding DNS types. Syngenta has some varieties grown in North Dakota that yield phenomenally. What happened is that over the past few years that the spread between DNS and HRS at all the elevators widened considerably, up to $3 per bus. The reality is that the specs in the HRS have higher demand and value than the specs in DNS. Its my understanding that this is a premium that US and others are paying for. I think that with the changes that some US wheat may come north but dame little.

[grassfarmer]

All I know is the dairy industry will receive a billion plus dollar handout because of the new trade deal....

Don't know about the dairy industry but I'm told dairy farmers have not received a cent from the compensation that Harper announced when he gave away market access when he was under no pressure to do so.

[LWeber]

Don't know about the dairy industry but I'm told dairy farmers have not received a cent from the compensation that Harper announced when he gave away market access when he was under no pressure to do so.

Really Grassfarmer...

Do some research; when did Harper give away market access?

Or do you only correct spelling errors?

[bucket]

Why does everyone defer to what Harper did....I hear that in question period as a standard answer.....


Better start looking at what the liberal record is by October 2019 because harper isn't in politics anymore.....and BTW it's starting to show that people miss a guy like him....he showed up for work everyday. ...


Trudeau ....not so much....

[shtferbrains]

Canada a world power house

Good explanation of article 32:10 here:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-04/nafta-s-china-clause-is-latest-blow-to-trudeau-s-asia-ambitions

This was the lesser of evils to accept what the United States had basically thrust upon us,” MacKay said. “I don’t think the gun was necessarily to our head -- it was in our mouth, with the trigger cocked and a full chamber.”