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Argentina Wheat and Barley Projections from the USDA

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    Argentina Wheat and Barley Projections from the USDA

    Again, I added emphasis. That malt barley quote they have for Jan 2019 delivery, works out to $5.25 CAD/bu.

    Current bids are close to $6.

    Today's bid for a standard 2 red wheat delivered Rosario is $8.01 CAD per bushel.


    Below are bids at each mill and minimum specs... Argentina has a centralized system. One email, gives you all ports, crops, prices, and specs.

    SAN CAYETANO
    $ 9000 c/gluten art. 12 19% gl- y 76ph, pago 30 días
    AVELLANEDA
    $ 9400 C/24 - $9650 c/26%, $10000 c/28% - $10400 c/30%, pago 30 días
    BENITO JUAREZ
    $ 9200 Cámara, pago 30 días
    CAÑUELAS
    $ 9000 Cámara - $ 10000 c/gluten 20% - $ 10100 c/22% - $10500 c/24%, pago 20 días
    CARLOS CASARES
    $ 9700 c/gluten 20% - $ 9900 c/24%, fusarium 0,5 max., pago 30 días
    CHACABUCO
    $ 9500 c/gluten 20% - $ 10100 c/24% $ 10300 c/26% $ 10400 c/28%, pago 30 días
    CHIVILCOY
    $ 9000 Art. 12 - $ 9200 c/22% - $ 9400 c/24%, pago 30 días
    GRAL. RODRÍGUEZ
    $ 8400 Cámara - $ 9100 c/gluten de 21% a 24%, pago 7 días
    LA PLATA
    $ 9800 o u$s 240 c/26% PH 77, pago 35 días
    ROSARIO
    $ 8300 Cámara - $ 8500 c/gluten de 24%, ph76 pago 15 días
    NAVARRO
    $ 9800 c/gluten c/20% - $ 10000 c/24% - $10500 c/26%, pago 30 días
    OPEN DOOR
    $ 10000 c/gluten 24% - $ 10200 c/26% - $ 10500 c/28% - $ 10700 c/30, pago 30 días
    PILAR
    $ 10000 c/gluten c/20% - $ 10200 c/24% - $ 10500 c/26% - $10700 c/28% - $10900 c/30%, pago 30 días
    REALICÓ
    $ 9400 c/gluten 20% -'$ 10500 c/gluten 28% -

    $ 10600 c/30% , PH73
    SAN JUSTO
    $ 10150 c/gluten 20% - $ 10350 c/24% - $10650 c/26%, min. PH76, pago 20 días -
    TANDIL
    $ 9000 c/gluten 26%, PH 77, pago 35 días
    TRES ARROYOS
    $ 9000 Cámara, minimo PH73, pago 20 días
    For marketing year 2018/19, Argentine wheat production is forecast at a historic high of 20 million tons driving
    record exports of 14.2 million tons. Barley production is forecast to rise to 3.5 million tons
    with corn production
    forecast up to 40 million tons, 9 million tons higher than Post’s projection for the MY 2017/18 drought-affected
    harvest, which could lift exports to a record 27 million tons. Corn domestic consumption is expected to
    continue its increasing trend, totaling 13 million tons. Sorghum estimates remain practically unchanged for MY
    2018/19. Tight water resources drop planted area for rice projections in MY2018/19. Grain consumption for
    animal feed (wheat, barley and corn) is expected to be up due to lower feed reserves after drought conditions.
    Commodities:
    Select
    Author Defined:
    Wheat
    Production: Argentine wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2018/19 is forecast at a record 20.0 million
    tons as farmers could expand planting area to 6.2 million hectares, the highest acreage in 11 years, depending
    on weather conditions. Experts agree that the drier La Nina pattern is fading, after the worst drought in 50
    years, to a more normal moisture cycle. Favorable planting conditions in the eastern part of the country, due to
    recent rains could be offset by other regions, such as north and east Cordoba, southwest Buenos Aires and La
    Pampa, that still lack the moisture levels needed to plant wheat which could lower overall planting area if not
    rectified before June 2018.
    Expectations for strong future prices, based on tight regional supplies and strong global demand, are driving
    planting intentions for wheat in Argentina. Wheat prices, in dollar terms, have increased about 20 percent for
    the coming crop while production costs have increased only 2-3 percent (in dollar terms). This will be a
    welcome change for farmers after a low-yielding summer crop and negative returns. Where possible, wheat
    crop followed by second crop soybean gives producers one of the most profitable planting combination as well
    as cash at the end of the year to help finance summer crop expenses. In addition, wheat planting area may also
    rise as last year flooding prevented some producers from planting wheat, the use of winter cover crop for weed
    control continues to expand and the “short memory” of farmers who had a good wheat crop last year.
    In general, most contacts indicate that producers will use high technology (quality seed, adequate crop
    protection and fertilization), except some producers who were negatively affected by the poor corn and
    soybean season that might limit inputs to save costs. Most local analysts and brokers expect an area expansion
    between 5-15 percent.
    Wheat production in MY 2017/18 is increased to 18.4 million tons because of an estimated larger harvested
    area, now at 5.7 million hectares.
    Domestic consumption: Wheat consumption in MY 2018/19 is projected up at 5.7 million tons, excluding wheat
    milled for exports of flour, as a slow recovery in the domestic economy is forecast to strengthen demand. A
    significant increase in planted area will result in larger use of wheat for seed. Although still small, wheat for
    animal feed may also continue a growth trend as the local corn crop in MY 2017/18 could fall 8-10 million tons.
    The use of wheat for flour exports has been expanding in response to a government policy change that
    eliminated restrictions on wheat and flour exports. Argentina is currently exporting the wheat flour equivalent
    to 1.0 million tons of wheat.

    Trade: Argentine wheat exports for MY 2018/19 are forecast at a record high of 14.2 million tons as traders
    recover markets lost from 2012-15 under previous export restrictive measures. This trend is expected to
    continue in the future. Of total wheat exports over the past 12 months, Brazil accounted for 41 percent, Africa
    25 percent, Southeast Asia 17 percent and other countries in South America 13 percent.

    In MY 2018/19, Argentina is expected to ship more than 6 million tons of wheat (including flour) to neighboring
    Brazil at between 400-600,000 tons per month. Shipments are normally somewhat larger in March/April when
    Brazilian mills have consumed most of their domestic wheat. In the first months after harvest, Argentina
    exports feed wheat to South East Asian countries such as Indonesia, Thailand and Bangladesh, and milling wheat
    to African countries such as Algeria, Kenya and Nigeria.

    Barley
    Production: As with wheat, farmers are enthusiastic about planting barley in the coming season. Production is
    estimated at 3.5 million tons, 300,000 tons higher than MY 2017/18 on harvested area of at least 900,000
    hectares. An advantage of barley over wheat is that producers sowing a second soybean crop are able to plant

    two weeks earlier, allowing higher potential yields. As in wheat, some barley areas need to replenish soil
    moisture before planting, especially in the southwest Buenos Aires province, that continues very dry.
    Producers in southeast Buenos Aires province, where 40-45 percent of the country’s barley is produced,
    normally use high technology (with good levels of fertilization) to obtain high yields. Producers in the southwest
    Buenos Aires province typically use lower technology. With such a strong market for both malt and feed barley,
    producers feel they will not run the risk of getting significant price discounts if they do not meet malting quality
    levels as in past crops.
    Local barley prices have recovered in the past months and, despite higher production costs, barley future
    returns are better than wheat. Nowadays, malt and feed barley futures prices are similar. Local brokers indicate
    that farmers recently sold some 200-300,000 tons of barley in the future’s market at an average price of $187
    per ton for delivery in January 2019. Malting processors and malt barley exporters are expected to propose
    contract conditions in the next few weeks that most believe will be attractive to farmers.

    Barley yields are showing a ongoing growth trend due to several factors. First, many farmers have switched
    from the Scarlett seed variety to Andreia, a variety with better disease resistance and higher yields that
    currently covers approximately 70 percent of the local barley area. In addition, barley production has slowly
    increased in the southeast region (vis-à-vis the southwest region) which has better growing conditions and
    farmers are no longer planting barley in the poorest lots of their farms as in the past.
    Domestic consumption: Barley consumption for MY 2018/19 is forecast at 1.2 million tons, a marginal increase
    from the previous year. Demand by malting plants will be a little below 1.0 million tons, while seed use will be
    close to 100,000 tons. Barley feed use is expected to grow marginally at 125,000 tons by different livestock
    industries looking to substitute feed ingredients after the dry and hot summer which negatively impacted corn
    and pasture production.
    Trade: Barley exports for MY 2018/19 are projected at 2.2 million tons, similar to the previous year. Local
    exporters indicate world demand for barley is strong due to tight supplies with rough export estimates of 1.2
    million tons of malt barley and 1.0 million tons of feed barley. The main markets for malt barley are Brazil and
    other countries in South America, while the main destination for feed barley is the Middle East, led by Saudi
    Arabia.
    Last edited by Klause; Oct 1, 2018, 11:15.

    #2
    The prices are quoted in $argentine peso / metric tonne.

    Divide by 30.3 to get CAD/MT.

    Comment


      #3
      Thanks for posting
      Wow, some places are 35 days for payment?

      Comment


        #4
        What do they divide by a month from now to get US/mt since it's 35 days to receive payment?

        Comment

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