$500

[bucket]

If there is as much canola out as indicated and its green what are you guys thinking for production .....15mmt....16mmt...there is no 19mmt production for this year.

Now start taking out the green issues....well milligan needs it to be up and running...are they publicly traded? might be a great investment.....

Crushers are going to be begging for canola...

I feel for the pre contracted bushels not in the bin .....that could be a huge hit for some guys....hello input capital as the largest landowner in saskatchewan

[bigzee]

Don’t forget to get your 2019 seed booked and paid for by the end of Oct to take advantage of great fall savings. 🤣🤣🤣
Retailers leave me alone already!!

[farmaholic]

If it goes to $440 the basis will be + $50 or they’ll have to shut down crush plants.

Yes basis well be an interesting watch if canola can break above $600/tonne also.

Maybe the reason the "market" is so ****ing quiet is because they are assessing the situation and positioning themselves to take advantage of it. There may well be alot of low hanging fruit to be picked between now and when the harvest window finally closes(and maybe a couple of months after that), why run it up now? But when the tight fisted owners need to be dealt with..... possession is key, don't fall for delivering against basis contracts if you don't have to.


This applies to all commodities.

[sumdumguy]

It’s cheaper to buy long than to grow a crop.

[bucket]

I don't grow canola but I will cheer it on....giddy up.....

[Agvocate]

Canola on it's own certainly has a story with Canadian weather, and the Aussie crop. Calandar spreads are moving in which is telling us the market needs canola in the near term. Canola is at a large premium to beans already which was originally driven by the US/China trade dispute. It now has a weather story pushing it as well. Well I would love to see another $100 move I think we are dreaming if we don't see the soy complex move in turn with it. Crush can be idled back and the market can find replacement oils and proteins if we get too expensive. In talking to a few of the local elevators there is a lot of $11.00 pricing targets as well so it will take time for the market to chew through that. Funds likely covering shorts helping push us to where we are.

[Partners]

A few yrs ago it was $14.50 and higher..depending on how much gets harvested it could blow past that number..or..if weather turns and it does get harvested..look out down turn..

[macdon02]

[ATTACH]3489[/ATTACH]

Is $600 enough?

No it's not. Take the 06 low to the 08 high distance and add it from where we are today. Now realize this won't happen in a month or a quarter but more likely years and it'll take a combination of demand and currency ..... which tells us you'd need to be an idiot to be bullish cad especially after looking at USD formation as well as CAD. What it's telling us is there's something bigger developing over the next several years and for price to move that high says its going to be an absolute bastard to grow bushels moving forward. The chart tells the fundamentals before it happens not vice versa. Just my 2 cents.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Canola on it's own certainly has a story with Canadian weather, and the Aussie crop. Calandar spreads are moving in which is telling us the market needs canola in the near term. Canola is at a large premium to beans already which was originally driven by the US/China trade dispute. It now has a weather story pushing it as well. Well I would love to see another $100 move I think we are dreaming if we don't see the soy complex move in turn with it. Crush can be idled back and the market can find replacement oils and proteins if we get too expensive. In talking to a few of the local elevators there is a lot of $11.00 pricing targets as well so it will take time for the market to chew through that. Funds likely covering shorts helping push us to where we are.

I don't believe it is as simple as that. What percent of canola oil ends up in restaurants and food manufacturing? Many of them have spent the advertising dollars to switch to canola oil, and can't reasonably switch overnight due to price fluctuations.

[Rareearth]

Gann, Elliot, that’s a coil - holly hold on to your hats