$500

[farmaholic]

If it goes to $440 the basis will be + $50 or they’ll have to shut down crush plants.

Yes basis well be an interesting watch if canola can break above $600/tonne also.

Maybe the reason the "market" is so ****ing quiet is because they are assessing the situation and positioning themselves to take advantage of it. There may well be alot of low hanging fruit to be picked between now and when the harvest window finally closes(and maybe a couple of months after that), why run it up now? But when the tight fisted owners need to be dealt with..... possession is key, don't fall for delivering against basis contracts if you don't have to.


This applies to all commodities.

[sumdumguy]

It’s cheaper to buy long than to grow a crop.

[bucket]

I don't grow canola but I will cheer it on....giddy up.....

[Agvocate]

Canola on it's own certainly has a story with Canadian weather, and the Aussie crop. Calandar spreads are moving in which is telling us the market needs canola in the near term. Canola is at a large premium to beans already which was originally driven by the US/China trade dispute. It now has a weather story pushing it as well. Well I would love to see another $100 move I think we are dreaming if we don't see the soy complex move in turn with it. Crush can be idled back and the market can find replacement oils and proteins if we get too expensive. In talking to a few of the local elevators there is a lot of $11.00 pricing targets as well so it will take time for the market to chew through that. Funds likely covering shorts helping push us to where we are.

[Partners]

A few yrs ago it was $14.50 and higher..depending on how much gets harvested it could blow past that number..or..if weather turns and it does get harvested..look out down turn..

[macdon02]

[ATTACH]3489[/ATTACH]

Is $600 enough?

No it's not. Take the 06 low to the 08 high distance and add it from where we are today. Now realize this won't happen in a month or a quarter but more likely years and it'll take a combination of demand and currency ..... which tells us you'd need to be an idiot to be bullish cad especially after looking at USD formation as well as CAD. What it's telling us is there's something bigger developing over the next several years and for price to move that high says its going to be an absolute bastard to grow bushels moving forward. The chart tells the fundamentals before it happens not vice versa. Just my 2 cents.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Canola on it's own certainly has a story with Canadian weather, and the Aussie crop. Calandar spreads are moving in which is telling us the market needs canola in the near term. Canola is at a large premium to beans already which was originally driven by the US/China trade dispute. It now has a weather story pushing it as well. Well I would love to see another $100 move I think we are dreaming if we don't see the soy complex move in turn with it. Crush can be idled back and the market can find replacement oils and proteins if we get too expensive. In talking to a few of the local elevators there is a lot of $11.00 pricing targets as well so it will take time for the market to chew through that. Funds likely covering shorts helping push us to where we are.

I don't believe it is as simple as that. What percent of canola oil ends up in restaurants and food manufacturing? Many of them have spent the advertising dollars to switch to canola oil, and can't reasonably switch overnight due to price fluctuations.

[Rareearth]

Gann, Elliot, that’s a coil - holly hold on to your hats

[farmaholic]

MacDon02

I hate quoting myself but here it goes...

"I am not the most astute grain marketer or market watcher and an even worse analyst....."

I understand and know the limitations and lack of knowledge I have regarding the above quote. My posts are opinions not anything anyone should use to market their grain. I do NOT have a firm handle on the market and the idiosyncrasies that will move it in whatever direction...speculatively or fundamentally.

I just posted the historical chart to show $600 probably isn't out of the realm of possibilities given the current set of circumstances...

I won't even take advantage of the possibility with paper...probably just gamble with the physical in the bin.

[beaverdam]

Nov slips, to fill this morning's gap up,

Niccce !

[macdon02]

MacDon02

I hate quoting myself but here it goes...

"I am not the most astute grain marketer or market watcher and an even worse analyst....."

I understand and know the limitations and lack of knowledge I have regarding the above quote. My posts are opinions not anything anyone should use to market their grain. I do NOT have a firm handle on the market and the idiosyncrasies that will move it in whatever direction...speculatively or fundamentally.

I just posted the historical chart to show $600 probably isn't out of the realm of possibilities given the current set of circumstances...

I won't even take advantage of the possibility with paper...probably just gamble with the physical in the bin.

I'm retaining ownership through July calls and I'm the asshole dumping on the spot market as its easier to exit the options then peddle heated canola. The reason im doing this is we typically get a July high. This year we did not. It's indicating in my opinion a cycle inversion. Something is up and the market indicated before it happened. Bought my calls before the first snow storm. Will i hold to expiry? Doubtful. Mostly its the combination of many indicators that convinced me to jump. I'm looking for a 3 year rally and will be rolling all this crop into 2020. I might be wrong but i know where my line is and I'm only married to it until i make the call. I expect going into year end we get a set back after we get a pop here

[grassfarmer]

I don't believe it is as simple as that. What percent of canola oil ends up in restaurants and food manufacturing? Many of them have spent the advertising dollars to switch to canola oil, and can't reasonably switch overnight due to price fluctuations.

What about that great Alberta "barley fed beef" product AF5? Plenty advertising dollars and a whole industry built on that but they switch to US corn any time it's cheaper and never blink an eyelid. Just don't bother telling the customer and it'll be fine.