$500

[farmaholic]

MacDon02.

if you have the knowledge and skill to use the futures market and options and don't want to have storage risk or might need cash flow.....who am I to question your marketing choices and strategies?

I'm satisfied and comfortable doing what I'm doing but wished I had a handle on chart analysis and the indicators(what they mean)affect on the futures values. Unless it's more speculative than an exact science.

[macdon02]

I didn't take it as a "questioning" and definitely didn't take the comment as hostile. No offense taken. Me being the "asshole" was in reference to previous threads about who's selling into this. I ventured off topic. Back in 2010 i signed up as pupil into an advanced marketing program. Spent about 3 years wondering wtf was being talked about, just way over my head. But it became more of a hobby and wanted to know more on what made things tick. It evolved into way more then i ever dreamt, took forever but then there was an ah ha moment, like going down the rabbit hole, the hidden order... I'm no expert but this site spends zero time talking market and mostly on politics. Nothing can be learnt only blame laid. Fundamentals are opinion, so they are worth the same. Eliminate emotion which is often tied to opinion. I started on fib Gann and EW and then turned the page to cycles and when that happened i realized politician and govt control way less then we give them credit for. They control nothing, USDA controls nothing. We as farmers love to blame them but the cycle rules. There's certain things we simply don't control. It's our habits and we revert, we never really evolve. I had everything i was taught passed on freely. If nothing is retained pay attention to seasonal highs and lows. When they don't follow an orderly fashion, something is up and it's time to pay attention. I don't have enough time in the day to turn it into a living or more then a hobby but turn points and direction changes stick out once you know what to look for. Know what an outside key reversal is but don't watch daily charts, it's weekly and monthly that give long term direction. Monthly especially, that's where the long term trend is set. The rest, For the most part is noise. Watch yearly levels, highs and lows, as well as on quarterly. It takes less time then you think. When markets take out yearly highs, sell some. If they don't, and set new lows that's important as well. Yes is easy to hold till road ban season for the basis gain but in a declining market after cost of carry did you gain anything from forward selling the day you finished seeding for off the combine? I think we are 3 years into a move up and most don't realize it. Everything i touched today blew up from the key in the sprocket of the bagger drive chain to the ccm that has been changed 3 times and the sword fight between the cart and the combine last night. To be continued ...

[farmaholic]

MacDon02

How do you manage pricing crops that aren't traded on an exchange or do you think high tides raise all ships(and visa versa) all the time. I would think there has to be some price independence at times for non-exchange traded crops where fundamentals have a bigger factor in their price direction than the influence of exchanges.

Flax, mustards, canary seed, lentils, peas, beans(not soy), etc, you get the picture.

I would think any macro crops that don't have an actual exchange are affected by one that is very similar and has one.

But when do certain crops move independently of their influential exchanges. Durum of wheat. Barley of corn. Even canola with its own contract of the soy contract.

Then throw in the whole commodity complex...everything from soup to nuts...does that affect grains.

ps...is your AV handle more swather related or a word play on a market indicator(MACD) lol.

[farming101]

But when do certain crops move independently of their influential exchanges.

Crude oil price influences everything sooner or later. Currencies are the other major factor

Small markets can go their own way for extended periods or just go away altogether(whale oil)

[farmaholic]

Above are canola charts, Nov Daily, weekly continuous and monthly continuous.
Weekly and monthly look like downtrends in the short term past yet daily Nov looks up since the second week in Sept.

Comments please, hopefully I can learn something.

[farmaholic]

Sorry, I had two monthly charts in the last post, here is the Nov daily...

[farming101]

Here is the 20 year monthly nearest zoomed in.
The lower inclined line is a part of an Andrews fork.
Notice how important $500 is to the multi-year chart. Has been since 2011
Not putting this up to be obscure. Just to point out the charts have a message.
Later.

[bucket]

And those charts also tell you when the green count in October was still 20 percent and harvest was only 30 percent done in the major production areas ????

These are all based on normal harvests.....this is not a normal harvest...


Charts are historical info....they can't predict what will happen when the boats remain empty at the west coast or the crushers can't find any more 15 percent moisture canola...

Just saying ...not arguing....but there are some unknowns right now that charts can't predict....

And if I was sitting on any amount of dry #1 canola it wouldn't be sold without a very good premium attached to it....

But I am a cheerleader ...didnt grow canola this year

[farmaholic]

101..."Later"??? As in the chart message is later or as in "see you later" as you walk away laughing!


Bucket, I seem to keep getting the message that the fundamentals don't matter as much as what the chart indicates...I don't ****en know!

It would be interesting to know how many people use charts to help them market their grain.
I have my opinion but know it means **** all.

[bigzee]

I’m surprised we haven’t heard a price premium has already been included in the price due to inclement weather.
In 6 days it will be a month since I turned a wheel.

[HappyFarmer]

If canola doesn't take it out and close above by Friday, likely looking at a run to 440 ish. Will be a 4x attempt Gann signal. What can't go up must go down. We hit the roof imo for now

I completely agree. I really don't want to with 100 % of my canola still out but i have to.

[HappyFarmer]

I completely agree. I really don't want to with 100 % of my canola still out but i have to.

But we did close above 500, so now looking to take a run at 520 and then see what happens.