$500

[farmaholic]

MacDon02

I hate quoting myself but here it goes...

"I am not the most astute grain marketer or market watcher and an even worse analyst....."

I understand and know the limitations and lack of knowledge I have regarding the above quote. My posts are opinions not anything anyone should use to market their grain. I do NOT have a firm handle on the market and the idiosyncrasies that will move it in whatever direction...speculatively or fundamentally.

I just posted the historical chart to show $600 probably isn't out of the realm of possibilities given the current set of circumstances...

I won't even take advantage of the possibility with paper...probably just gamble with the physical in the bin.

[beaverdam]

Nov slips, to fill this morning's gap up,

Niccce !

[macdon02]

MacDon02

I hate quoting myself but here it goes...

"I am not the most astute grain marketer or market watcher and an even worse analyst....."

I understand and know the limitations and lack of knowledge I have regarding the above quote. My posts are opinions not anything anyone should use to market their grain. I do NOT have a firm handle on the market and the idiosyncrasies that will move it in whatever direction...speculatively or fundamentally.

I just posted the historical chart to show $600 probably isn't out of the realm of possibilities given the current set of circumstances...

I won't even take advantage of the possibility with paper...probably just gamble with the physical in the bin.

I'm retaining ownership through July calls and I'm the asshole dumping on the spot market as its easier to exit the options then peddle heated canola. The reason im doing this is we typically get a July high. This year we did not. It's indicating in my opinion a cycle inversion. Something is up and the market indicated before it happened. Bought my calls before the first snow storm. Will i hold to expiry? Doubtful. Mostly its the combination of many indicators that convinced me to jump. I'm looking for a 3 year rally and will be rolling all this crop into 2020. I might be wrong but i know where my line is and I'm only married to it until i make the call. I expect going into year end we get a set back after we get a pop here

[grassfarmer]

I don't believe it is as simple as that. What percent of canola oil ends up in restaurants and food manufacturing? Many of them have spent the advertising dollars to switch to canola oil, and can't reasonably switch overnight due to price fluctuations.

What about that great Alberta "barley fed beef" product AF5? Plenty advertising dollars and a whole industry built on that but they switch to US corn any time it's cheaper and never blink an eyelid. Just don't bother telling the customer and it'll be fine.

[farmaholic]

MacDon02.

if you have the knowledge and skill to use the futures market and options and don't want to have storage risk or might need cash flow.....who am I to question your marketing choices and strategies?

I'm satisfied and comfortable doing what I'm doing but wished I had a handle on chart analysis and the indicators(what they mean)affect on the futures values. Unless it's more speculative than an exact science.

[macdon02]

I didn't take it as a "questioning" and definitely didn't take the comment as hostile. No offense taken. Me being the "asshole" was in reference to previous threads about who's selling into this. I ventured off topic. Back in 2010 i signed up as pupil into an advanced marketing program. Spent about 3 years wondering wtf was being talked about, just way over my head. But it became more of a hobby and wanted to know more on what made things tick. It evolved into way more then i ever dreamt, took forever but then there was an ah ha moment, like going down the rabbit hole, the hidden order... I'm no expert but this site spends zero time talking market and mostly on politics. Nothing can be learnt only blame laid. Fundamentals are opinion, so they are worth the same. Eliminate emotion which is often tied to opinion. I started on fib Gann and EW and then turned the page to cycles and when that happened i realized politician and govt control way less then we give them credit for. They control nothing, USDA controls nothing. We as farmers love to blame them but the cycle rules. There's certain things we simply don't control. It's our habits and we revert, we never really evolve. I had everything i was taught passed on freely. If nothing is retained pay attention to seasonal highs and lows. When they don't follow an orderly fashion, something is up and it's time to pay attention. I don't have enough time in the day to turn it into a living or more then a hobby but turn points and direction changes stick out once you know what to look for. Know what an outside key reversal is but don't watch daily charts, it's weekly and monthly that give long term direction. Monthly especially, that's where the long term trend is set. The rest, For the most part is noise. Watch yearly levels, highs and lows, as well as on quarterly. It takes less time then you think. When markets take out yearly highs, sell some. If they don't, and set new lows that's important as well. Yes is easy to hold till road ban season for the basis gain but in a declining market after cost of carry did you gain anything from forward selling the day you finished seeding for off the combine? I think we are 3 years into a move up and most don't realize it. Everything i touched today blew up from the key in the sprocket of the bagger drive chain to the ccm that has been changed 3 times and the sword fight between the cart and the combine last night. To be continued ...

[farmaholic]

MacDon02

How do you manage pricing crops that aren't traded on an exchange or do you think high tides raise all ships(and visa versa) all the time. I would think there has to be some price independence at times for non-exchange traded crops where fundamentals have a bigger factor in their price direction than the influence of exchanges.

Flax, mustards, canary seed, lentils, peas, beans(not soy), etc, you get the picture.

I would think any macro crops that don't have an actual exchange are affected by one that is very similar and has one.

But when do certain crops move independently of their influential exchanges. Durum of wheat. Barley of corn. Even canola with its own contract of the soy contract.

Then throw in the whole commodity complex...everything from soup to nuts...does that affect grains.

ps...is your AV handle more swather related or a word play on a market indicator(MACD) lol.

[farming101]

But when do certain crops move independently of their influential exchanges.

Crude oil price influences everything sooner or later. Currencies are the other major factor

Small markets can go their own way for extended periods or just go away altogether(whale oil)

[farmaholic]

Above are canola charts, Nov Daily, weekly continuous and monthly continuous.
Weekly and monthly look like downtrends in the short term past yet daily Nov looks up since the second week in Sept.

Comments please, hopefully I can learn something.

[farmaholic]

Sorry, I had two monthly charts in the last post, here is the Nov daily...