Errol Experts who ever?

[malleefarmer]

Seems to me there is and always has been a direct correlation between gas and fert prices or is it oil and fert prices or combination of all three and zero correlation with corn prices?

And never any correlation with corn or bean prices?

[errolanderson]

Mallee . . . there is and there isn't a relationship between gas and fert prices. Fert prices are a function of supply, weather, market timing and delivery squeeze. This has no-doubt frustrated growers as a drop in nat gas prices doesn't necessarily translate into a drop in fert prices.

But speaking of nat gas, we have a major rally going on right now. Nat gas prices have exploded 30% higher of-late. There is a shortage of nat gas injections into U.S. storage caverns at the end of injection season. This suggest big price volatility especially as poor winter comes and goes. Japan landed LNG prices have now soared above $10 per gigajoule . . . this compares to our southeast Alberta (Suffield) spot price of around $2.60 per gig. We need the Kitmat LNG export facility desperately. But Canada appears 'Johnny come lately to the table'.

Corn and soybeans are a global market and doestn't react to nat gas movement. China digging-in for a multi-year long haul trade war with the U.S. (IMO). Serious economic fallout for the American Midwest.

[bucket]

The price of natural gas into a fertilizer plant hasn't changed much and the fertilizer companies have probably booked natgas supply as far out as they can.....no reason for a spike other than they are allowed to do it.

Years ago it was the price of natural gas that raised fertilizer prices...then it was that corn was worth 8 bucks a bushel....then another excuse came along like it has to be priced making a trip to NOLA and back...

Every ****ing excuse imaginable....and guys fall for it....guess what folks you are not making more money by growing more crop...your net return is going down and has been for quite awhile...

Sure the gross revenue is up but its NET dollars that matter.