Calling the top in farmland right here

[GALAXIE500]

It gets sickening on here with the land is going to crash threads. No other business Hope's for a disaster on their biggest asset's. But hey I'll take a new 1 ton diesel for a hundred grand and a new sled for 16,000. What a great deal. Wake the **** up already.

Sask Wheatking you hit the nail on the head

[checking]

Since monkeys have been known to throw shit, I will miss vvalk's insight for at least a week.

I admit that I'm slow on the uptake.

Canadian cash is worthless. Don't put it in a bank because Stat's Can will know where you purchased useless products, like land, with that useless Canadian cash. Oil in the ground drives land prices. Canada can't compete with the world because of JT's bong smoke. Now that I understand, for goodness sake, please don't add anymore.

[the big wheel]

On your comment about "safe in a bank" whats your thoughts on Stats Can getting all your transactions from your bank?

I think that's absolutely bullshit!! What the hell is it their business if I eat at mcdonalds or Burger King?

[poorboy]

Saskatchewan changing its land ownership laws is the major reason for the large rallies in farmland prices. Open ownership laws also helps stabilize the current higher values. Land prices in Alberta have been very high compared to farming economics for the last 50 years. Doesn't seem to adjust down much even when the farm economy sucks. Don't see prices dropping much in Saskatchewan either now that the doors are wide open. Land prices were way too affordable for way too long in Saskatchewan as compared to other places. Makes it tougher to afford, but stable high land prices keep creditors much happier.

[bucket]

Saskatchewan changing its land ownership laws is the major reason for the large rallies in farmland prices. Open ownership laws also helps stabilize the current higher values. Land prices in Alberta have been very high compared to farming economics for the last 50 years. Doesn't seem to adjust down much even when the farm economy sucks. Don't see prices dropping much in Saskatchewan either now that the doors are wide open. Land prices were way too affordable for way too long in Saskatchewan as compared to other places. Makes it tougher to afford, but stable high land prices keep creditors much happier.

When Albertans get here and see the rail freight bill from midpoint Saskatchewan. ...the value starts to diminish....every 1000 acres it's 20000 more freight in Saskatchewan ...so over a decade it's a good deal of money

[iceman]

I wonder if it’s mostly the current available of credit that is fueling a lot of this asset prices. Ie land, iron etc etc.

A person should leave emotion out of it and make decisions based solely from a business perspective. Very hard to do though in a bull market

[bucket]

I wonder if it’s mostly the current available of credit that is fueling a lot of this asset prices. Ie land, iron etc etc.

A person should leave emotion out of it and make decisions based solely from a business perspective. Very hard to do though in a bull market

If it was a business decision ....if you bought land at 70k and it's now worth 250k....the business decision is to take the money....

[bucket]

I wonder if it’s mostly the current available of credit that is fueling a lot of this asset prices. Ie land, iron etc etc.

A person should leave emotion out of it and make decisions based solely from a business perspective. Very hard to do though in a bull market

If it was a business decision ....if you bought land at 70k and it's now worth 250k....the business decision is to take the money....

[checking]

This is why oil leases and farming land don't mix, and why the first detracts in this area from land value.

A quarter with four to five single surface leases comes on the market. The cumulative annual lease payments are $15,000/year. As a potential buyer of this land you will have to pony up five to six times the annual lease payments, around $90,000.00, plus what you consider a diminished quarter is worth to you as you will be farming little of a typical 3.5 acre surface lease which includes the lease road (subtract 10-12 acres on a good year).

Granted in eight to nine years, your principal outlay will be returned to you, less if you don't value its investment worth, and if you feel lucky. The lease could become orphaned before payback, or god forbid the oil company abandons the down hole, reclaims the surface, and your annual rent goes to zero, before pay back.

Factor in that these earlier taken leases were often chosen for their high ground position that could leave you with a lot of cut offs due to knob and kettle topography you may have purchased. There is also that dreaded weather that easily tops those stupid berms that oil companies have to construct around each lease. Now, they don't berm the whole surface lease, just enough to accommodate a service rig. The rest of the equipment is usually parked on their lease that you had the choice to farm, but not necessarily the right to harvest. You have already been lease paid. Those berms antagonize the lease mower, and often breach to flood out twice the crop as the size of the lease. Please, someone fill in the missing pieces. There are many, even some on the flip side that must exist in big wheel country.

[furrowtickler]

In the depression, Canada was not a major world supplier and only had one crop and real ag teach yet.

In the 1980s, that crash was due to a confluence of events in the financial markets.

I think the business is more resilient now even if there are less farmers.

I have 2 neighbors who have aggressively expanded recently buying $4000 per ac land and paying a premium on rent to knock some long terms guys off some rented land.

There was a few of those here too , they are now bankrupt.... they were some of the first ones here to start the chase the ace game , ran land rents up for everyone else now they are gone and the fallout is continued high rents that leave the rest of us scrambling. It is what it is , but put a pencil to paper for 2 min ... it’s getging to be a zero sum game for those taking 100% if the risk growing the crops .
Should land crash ? Not at all , it’s a huge value to all of us , but the limit is being pushed very far with the current commodities we grow and Mother Nature taking her share as well . We can’t all grow marijuana to justify it .
Good luck to all , but when everyone else makes more than the primary producer , well , something will give sooner or later.
Sounds like some have literally bet the farm on forever increasing land values at the current pace of the past 10 years , will be interesting to see how that ends up. Might be a good bet or not who knows.