Calling the top in farmland right here

[farmaholic]

Farma, the money is in the land, not the commodity. Any sort of correction in prices would be devastating.

With all due respect Jazz. Its the commodity produced that pays for the land, not appreciation. Appreciation doesn't make land payments.

Unless you borrow against that land you can't spend appreciation...without paying it back sometime....otherwise thats considered selling it.

But yes it is two fold...it is(hopefully) a money earning appreciating asset...best case scenario...both at the same time.

Land is capable of generating some incredible income if all the stars line up with yields and good prices...so much that a goods and services Industry was built around it. Look at canola seed price with fert and chem costs, machinery, etc. These don't exist because there is no money in farming...its just that we can't keep enough of it in the current system. It's the "getting by" years that suck...

What devastation are you talking about? Producers at economic risk from operating at artificially high land values? Balance Sheet and Net Worth destruction? Highly leveraged against parabolic appreciation?

[Ache4Acres]

I don’t think I am hoping land is going down. In fact up is real nice too. I guess I am thinking...should I sell some land now? At least I Decided that I ain’t buying more at these prices.

$5 wheat and 20 cent lentils don’t pay for $4000 land in our area. Add in rising inputs, carbon tax and rising interest rates and a 30-50% correction seems very possible.

Also whole local economy is on the ropes...oil companies struggling, potash overproduced, farm commodity prices low, residential real-estate on the ropes...tell me where is the growth going to come from.

I have had two calls in the last month on separate land for sale and i suspect that’s not the last calls I will get. When the investors start to realize the upside is limited and the downside risk is real...say goodbye to all the “fake/borrowed” money flowing into land.

[farmaholic]

You need some cheap Ghetto land....only 2K/acre and modern farming methods have narrowed the "light" land to "heavy" land gap.

[farmaholic]

If there is anyone I would like to see economically suffer(and I am generally not that kind of guy), its the investor types that pushed the value of it way beyond its productive capacity and robbed a generation of young domestic farmers the pride of owning what they farm....that is "devastation" of an Industry's culture...those young men and women have been reduced to serfdom because it is cheaper to rent than buy, and competing with deep pockets of non-Ag related money, if you can even afford it in the first place...the very circumstances their forefathers came here to escape from.

[bucket]

Land values will fall as interest rates rise because it's easier money. ...100000 at 2 percent will be the same money as 80000 at 2.5 percent .....if you are using it as an investment income...

If you are spending it on a depreciating new truck ....well then that's a different story....

First thing some guys bought after they sold the farm was a quarter section half ton.....now they have no land and a 5000 half ton and technically they sold the land for 5000 dollars at the end of the day....

[SASKFARMER3]

I just don't get how some don't study the history of West.

Land goes up and drops on problems, land goes up and drops on Drought,

Land goes up on Speculators.

Land does drop and has since 1900.

Don't fool yourself it does.

This time the drop won't be as drastic but it will happen.

Most speculators buy at lower end then get to flip on way up and some get out some get caught but the ones who usually get caught are the farmers that buy at the peak.

High interest takes out farms always has and always will.

This time we have Dairy guys out of Ontario that are leaving the business and Hutts in Alberta that have to split and expand. The Values will drop for a bit but these two groups will buy the Speculators and guys who got hit at the top.

Look at Vancouver housing prices. It's not going up any more actually going down to a point but if interest rates keep going up sooner or later the owner of the property decides its time to exit.

Farmland is no different.

Our area peaked then dropped and now has levelled out with virtually very few sales.

Why? We had three to four big dogs that did pack it in after a few bad crops and one large landowner that bought low left at the high. Other big dogs just stopped buying.

It happens.

[the big wheel]

Yes when we get to the point where expected appreciation and revenue are lower or equal to interest rates or grain falls then land may go down some.
It will then depend on whether there is another oil boom or bust or such things as Chinese and other countries wanting land not just for production but for immigration (something I can't believe hasn't been investigated here in sask it happenned in bc and people were charged).
How people do forget for many years the only thing keeping many farms going was imcome off of oil industry.

Right now land is still appreciating in some cases 10% a year besides the rental revenue. Interest rates or investment returns in the bank need to
Be 15% to shift things. That's besides the fact if things in the world get shitty what's among the first thing people want to
Own? And is your money safe in the bank during shitty times?
We re talking about this moment in time not tomorrow.

[sk_wheatking]

modern farming methods have narrowed the "light" land to "heavy" land gap.

Never been a more true statement. Lighter land even poor land now has the same chance to produce as the heaviest land. The usual guys on here will laugh at that but I see it all the time. And yes land is like anything else, its value fluctuates but if you think your going to buy a quarter section of land for a 100,000 again, even for pasture, good luck. Look at what your happy to pay for every other thing that you need, want or collect. Spending 10,000 on a vacation is nothing these days.

[vvalk]

It gets sickening on here with the land is going to crash threads. No other business Hope's for a disaster on their biggest asset's. But hey I'll take a new 1 ton diesel for a hundred grand and a new sled for 16,000. What a great deal. Wake the **** up already.

This site is literally as bad as the local useless farmers at the coffee shop. I used to check this site everyday. Lucky if it’s once a week now.

[macdon02]

As long as the return is greater then cost of ownership/ interest rates + taxes, and the loonie continues its slide from 2012, land will continue to rise. I believe we've seen the bottom in grain prices. I'm bullish land prices.

[farmaholic]

This site is literally as bad as the local useless farmers at the coffee shop. I used to check this site everyday. Lucky if it’s once a week now.

Make use of the ignore feature. You don't have to abandon AV because of other people. Unless everyone here is an irritant for you.

[sk_wheatking]

This site is literally as bad as the local useless farmers at the coffee shop. I used to check this site everyday. Lucky if it’s once a week now.

Wow couldn't have said it better myself.

[macdon02]

Yes when we get to the point where expected appreciation and revenue are lower or equal to interest rates or grain falls then land may go down some.
It will then depend on whether there is another oil boom or bust or such things as Chinese and other countries wanting land not just for production but for immigration (something I can't believe hasn't been investigated here in sask it happenned in bc and people were charged).
How people do forget for many years the only thing keeping many farms going was imcome off of oil industry.

Right now land is still appreciating in some cases 10% a year besides the rental revenue. Interest rates or investment returns in the bank need to
Be 15% to shift things. That's besides the fact if things in the world get shitty what's among the first thing people want to
Own? And is your money safe in the bank during shitty times?
We re talking about this moment in time not tomorrow.

On your comment about "safe in a bank" whats your thoughts on Stats Can getting all your transactions from your bank?

[sk_wheatking]

This site is literally as bad as the local useless farmers at the coffee shop. I used to check this site everyday. Lucky if it’s once a week now.

I just realized.....maybe your talking about me....oh well.

[jazz]

In the depression, Canada was not a major world supplier and only had one crop and real ag teach yet.

In the 1980s, that crash was due to a confluence of events in the financial markets.

I think the business is more resilient now even if there are less farmers.

I have 2 neighbors who have aggressively expanded recently buying $4000 per ac land and paying a premium on rent to knock some long terms guys off some rented land.