Market talk in the US

[furrowtickler]

Bean and corn crops are struggling to get off in some of the most important states . Also the winter wheat crop way behind seeding and a lot that has been seeded is still very late establishing. Seeding into the mud never goes well ... as many here can attest to . Winter is about to set in not just here but all throughout the mid west US as well . Will be interesting to watch this play out over the next month.
A record crop is never a record until its in the bin ..... also what condition is that crop going to be in ? Much like Western Canada .... grades and moisture are a huge factor everywhere this year.

[farmaholic]

The Market's response:

But, but, but......

[bucket]

Bean and corn crops are struggling to get off in some of the most important states . Also the winter wheat crop way behind seeding and a lot that has been seeded is still very late establishing. Seeding into the mud never goes well ... as many here can attest to . Winter is about to set in not just here but all throughout the mid west US as well . Will be interesting to watch this play out over the next month.
A record crop is never a record until its in the bin ..... also what condition is that crop going to be in ? Much like Western Canada .... grades and moisture are a huge factor everywhere this year.

Yup read that too....thinking its a good time to wait her out....16 cent red lentils....if wheat moved 60 cents a bushel in a day that would be a big deal...

Someone knows something....

[hobbyfrmr]

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2018/11/05/business/soybeans-farmers-trade-war.amp.html


I dont know how to hyperlink with iphone. I dont see the toolbar with the globe icon used to hyperlink. It is possible I am not looking in the right place or legitimately incompetent with electronic devices.

[Rareearth]

Thanks Hobby, good article,

I cut and pasted some interesting points,

“In the mid-1990s, there were 450,000 acres of soybeans in the state. Last year, there were 6.4 million. As the state’s production of soybeans increased, companies spent millions of dollars on larger grain elevators, on the 110-car trains that carry the soybeans west to the Pacific Coast, on bigger terminals at the ports. A few years ago, Mr. Gebeke traded his grain drill, used to plant wheat, for a second machine to plant soybeans.

The Arthur Companies in 2016 opened a shiny drying, storage and loading facility that can hold 2.7 million bushels of beans waiting for the next train.”

Soybean farmers also spent millions of dollars cultivating the Chinese market. Farmers in North Dakota and other states contribute a fixed percentage of revenue to a federal fund called the “soybean checkoff” that pays for marketing programs like trade missions to China and research intended to convince Chinese farmers that pigs raised on American soybeans grow faster and fatter. In 2015, North Dakota soybean farmers footed the bill for an event in Shanghai honoring the 10 “most loyal” buyers of American soybeans.

The soybean industry’s sales pitch emphasized the reliability of American infrastructure and the political stability of the United States. The message was that the Chinese could be confident that American farmers would deliver high quality soybeans.

“I’ve been to China 25 times in the last decade talking about the dependability of U.S. soybeans,” said Kirk Leeds, the chief executive of the Iowa Soybean Association. By undermining that reputation, he said, “we have done long-term damage to the industry.”

Mr. Gebeke, 65, recalled President Jimmy Carter’s decision to suspend wheat sales to the Soviet Union in 1979. The embargo ended two years later but, by then, the Soviets were getting more of their grain from Ukraine. Speaking of the soybean standoff, he said, “They could get together tomorrow and iron this thing all out and I don’t think we’ll ever get all of our market back.”


Some analysts predict China will be forced to buy more American beans after it exhausts other sources. Others are hopeful that China and the United States will reach a deal to remove the tariffs.

But waiting carries risks. Soybeans can spoil, and Brazil harvests its crop in the spring, creating fresh competition for American beans. “Hope is unfortunately a terrible marketing plan,” said Nancy Johnson, executive director of the North Dakota Soybean Growers Association.“

[hobbyfrmr]

These US tariffs maybe to our advantage by directing the Chinese to buy our canola. The pessimist in me says the overburden of soybeans will be reflected in the market as lower prices which will push down our canola prices.
Decades of farming have closed my mind!

[SASKFARMER3]

But didn't Canola drop like a stone the last few weeks as farmers and Input Viagra delivered as much shit to fill them for a few weeks running?

[hobbyfrmr]

But didn't Canola drop like a stone the last few weeks as farmers and Input Viagra delivered as much shit to fill them for a few weeks running?

A week ago I was at cardlock when the son of my good friend came to fill up. They bale up and buy my buffer zone production.
We had a basic update. I mentioned the bales were still out in the field. He said they are busy as leased operators. They had 90 loads to deliver for Input Capital.

I went into full jackass mode ranting about how Input Capital is rooking farmers and ultimately taking action to capture their land titles.
As a trucker its not a problem to carry their canola, otherwise never do business with them. A couple hours later I realized I went a little nutso that early in the morning to get my point across. I sent him press releases from their website about how much money they made from machinery auctions and land title transfers just to prove I was not exaggerating.
The younger guys really utilize all kinds of credit, its a free country I have to respect those decisions but they must realize there are times when there is far to much at risk for the reward.

[bucket]

Thats 3600 tonnes and more than likely the trucker made more money than the farmers doing business with Input Capital...

[hobbyfrmr]

Thats 3600 tonnes and more than likely the trucker made more money than the farmers doing business with Input Capital...

I made the mistake of immediately criticizing INP as a stern warning to the young guy when I should have been asking if the loads were close and convenient. I like this kid, he has worked hard all his teenage years. Now he is an aspiring young man, the new generation has new and different distractions so I like to provide straight talk.