Question for 101 , and other skilled marketers

[Guest]

did we really miss the boat on canola sales this year ? sure hear that from lots of people lately , including our paid newsletter . we have done well waiting till spring , other years , not so sure this year ?

[farmaholic]

Crystal balls are fragile and prone to breaking. Dust them off...

Now watch them bust my balls!

[HappyFarmer]

I wouldn't be waving the white flag yet.

We are 3 and a half months into the crop year so we have lots of time yet.

Biggest worry on my end is Chinese demand which hasn't been as strong as expected given the tariff situation. (Although not that uncommon for Chinese demand to be quite right now). Total supply is only marginally larger than last year and given some of that canola may be so green its not even usable one could argue supplies may even be a bit smaller than last year.

Funds seem content so build up their shorts and likely will continue to do so for a while yet. I still feel these prices just aren't cheap enough yet and likely will see another 10 dollars a tonne to the downside until we see some better demand come on line.

Crush is right in line with last year but exports are behind hence why we need some lower prices to get them to come back on line and start to catch up. Aussie crop is way way smaller and likely we will pick up some incremental business from them. Soybean oil has been getting just hammered the last month and looks like we are close to hitting a bottom on that end. Crush margins are still relatively good and starting to see some basis specials pop up for dec which is the a sign market is getting a little nervous about getting seed in the door in December.

The threat of El Nino is real and likely to effect palm oil production in the coming year.

My guess is 11.00 again sometime in jan and would not surprise me at all to see some 11.25 to 11.50 come spring time.

Lots of time yet so i wouldn't worry to much. Not that uncommon to see this happen this time of year.

[Stampsguy]

Does anyone think their is room for a wheat rally. Sounds like Argentina has quality issues with wet harvest, winter wheat seeding is lower in US, and possibly dryness concerns in Russia. Are these accurate or does anyone know for sure.

[Oliver88]

Does anyone think their is room for a wheat rally. Sounds like Argentina has quality issues with wet harvest, winter wheat seeding is lower in US, and possibly dryness concerns in Russia. Are these accurate or does anyone know for sure.

Great questions, I’m blindly predicting wheat to increase $1/bushel by June.


We also have a very reliable Australian crop reporter on this website.....mallee farmer???

[errolanderson]

Trump / Xi meeting at the end of November could have huge implications on grain prices and outcome will affect us all. Pence hamming up the Cold War trade rhetoric, which isn’t helpful. China appears to want to work out a trade deal, but won’t cave to Trump.

Big pressure from U.S. corporations on Trump to get a deal done. Profit margins now draining globally.

Global veg oil prices in-decline due to China slowdown, impacting canola exports and domestic crush margins. Will beans rally 50 cents on trade optimism or drop 50 cents on intensifying Cold War? This will impact canola straight ahead (IMO).

[malleefarmer]

Well thanks oliver88 humbled by your kind words.

prices attached note some is have some is grain.

yields west aust might make average or just below.
My area and south australia below average not disaster but and the big but is many of the crops were cut for hay and many crops grazed off. So actaul harvest yields may be eblow average harvested acres is way down. So currently market is digesting probable tonnes but ignorning proabale acres thinks will nudge up again i reckon here in aust.

And yep grammar police theres a few error my tongues in my cheek grass dont stress

[malleefarmer]

The above is a online selling platform.

Grain listed samples viewed etc.

Grain paid for and money put in a trust account.

Buyer gets delivery happy money released to grower from trust account. Growers dont deliver until 3rd party has the money.

Have about 5 such online selling systems.

Whole transaction usally 5 to 7 days.

[malleefarmer]

from a mate

Oh and my crop comments were reffering to cereals i think canola is down in yield as are nearly all legumes both i think can be deemed poor

[GDR]

I think the market has been pushed down further than it should have by the market flooded with tough and green canola, lots of both taken off in various parts of the prairies. Most guys dont like sitting on those conditions and are dumping. Once caught up the market may swing too far the other way and provide premiums??

[farmaholic]

Most times I hate the chart's technical influence.

But some how the market takes the "fun" out of the fundamentals and all we're left with is da mentals.

How's that for a seasoned "anal"ysis?


Yup, could be a hang over from the extended Harvest Unhappy Hour this year. How else are they supposed to discourage pricing and delivery?
We have 9 to ten months to chew through this year's crop before new crop supplies become available.

Oh yeah, and as 101 pointed out only about 3 months supply if the world produced no new grain. Really bearish, eh!

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Fundamentally, what bad news could there be that isn't already priced in?

[Guest]

You're up late! Define bad news

[malleefarmer]

As austranada will tesify to many even most growers in his home state of WA may actually have there best year ever financially.

Not sure which part austranada farms in

[Oliver88]

$625/tonne canola in Western Australia?