Canola price

[furrowtickler]

Canola well below $10 now .
Basically to much canola getting pushed into the system, they don’t have to buy it to fill sales. As others have said here , will be interesting if prices can rally before spring back to at least that $10.50 mark. Hopefully once the surge of tough and green canola gets dealt with and shipped out , buyers will have to be back at the table to buy it.
Errol brings up some very valid points though as the world economy is falling off its razors edge . The debt balance seems to be pushed over the edge with credit tightening dramatically and interest rate uncertainties.
Might be tough for any rally before spring.

[bucket]

Dry and good quality canola is in tight hands....once the easy stuff to buy is gone then it will be different...

[seldomseen]

We seem to go through this every year at this time but tariffs on soybeans might make this different.

If I remember right in 2008 when the big meltdown happened the price of commodities were very strong. The world is a different place now for sure so I guess time will tell.

[seldomseen]

I went back and looked at a 2008 chart and right when the big banks were collapsing canola shot up over 750 in late Feb.

Maybe Errol can explain what happened at that time to cause that steep run up?

[ajl]

I went back and looked at a 2008 chart and right when the big banks were collapsing canola shot up over 750 in late Feb.

Maybe Errol can explain what happened at that time to cause that steep run up?

Canola and wheat peaked in Feb 2008. The bank collapses happened in Aug and Sept that year. Canadian stock market peak was in June of 2008 when it traded higher than it is today.

[Partners]

Viterra premium at 10.25 now..
Usually means price will go up soon..

[Marusko]

Canadian stock market peak was in June of 2008 when it traded higher than it is today.

Holy crap, you're right. I didn't believe you and had to look it up. It's even worse if you take inflation into account.

We're holding onto our canola for now. The future looks precarious, though.

[fjlip]

"Canola contracts were stronger on Tuesday, as speculative short-covering helped the market recover off of the yearly lows hit on Monday. Weakness in the Canadian dollar, which was down by two-thirds of a cent relative to its United States counterpart, contributed to the firmer tone in canola. Advances in the Chicago soy complex also provided some spillover support. However, sharp losses in the equity markets kept some caution in the commodities, as investors were bailing out of riskier assets. Farmer selling on the bounce also kept a lid on the upside. U.S. markets will be closed Thursday for Thanksgiving, while the canola market will trade its usual hours, and pre-holiday positioning was a feature. About 20,121 canola contracts traded, which compares with Monday when 11,424 contracts changed hands."

Just how it goes, we are our own enemy/competitors....one up day and panic selling.

[farmaholic]

"Canola contracts were stronger on Tuesday, as speculative short-covering helped the market recover off of the yearly lows hit on Monday. Weakness in the Canadian dollar, which was down by two-thirds of a cent relative to its United States counterpart, contributed to the firmer tone in canola. Advances in the Chicago soy complex also provided some spillover support. However, sharp losses in the equity markets kept some caution in the commodities, as investors were bailing out of riskier assets. Farmer selling on the bounce also kept a lid on the upside. U.S. markets will be closed Thursday for Thanksgiving, while the canola market will trade its usual hours, and pre-holiday positioning was a feature. About 20,121 canola contracts traded, which compares with Monday when 11,424 contracts changed hands."

Just how it goes, we are our own enemy/competitors....one up day and panic selling.

Patience Grasshopper...

Or this....

[Guest]

Your gambling from now to April !

not as much as I'm gambling from may till oct ?
canola up 2 days in a row ..... who knows....

[Oliver88]

not as much as I'm gambling from may till oct ?
canola up 2 days in a row ..... who knows....

For the last 2 years, the smart money is paying attention to Farmaholic and his annual $12 canola watch.