Marketing Grain

[farmaholic]

When you look at T-Bay or West Coast asking prices for #1 wheat, or think about the prices the. Wizard of Oz"(Mallee) quotes...looks like there might be some upside. Russia/Ukraine tensions disrupting shipping etc out of there.

Durum....wait till fuzz rears its ugly head again! Hello $4 durum....I haven't followed port prices for durum....what is the percieved spread between port asking and farmgate prices? Then there's the mysterious US destination durum...what is it worth? I probably won't grow durum again until I forget how miserable grading and marketing fuzz infected durum can be! ...too susceptible.

[jazz]

I hope you guys realize my first post in this thread is dripping with sarcasm!

Oh no, I sold all mine right after I read your post.

[bucket]

When you look at T-Bay or West Coast asking prices for #1 wheat, or think about the prices the. Wizard of Oz"(Mallee) quotes...looks like there might be some upside. Russia/Ukraine tensions disrupting shipping etc out of there.

Durum....wait till fuzz rears its ugly head again! Hello $4 durum....I haven't followed port prices for durum....what is the percieved spread between port asking and farmgate prices? Then there's the mysterious US destination durum...what is it worth? I probably won't grow durum again until I forget how miserable grading and marketing fuzz infected durum can be! ...too susceptible.

Store 5cwad durum with FUZZ....doubled in price from september 2016 to July 2018....


And Errol since you are defending Kostal what were your recommendations for FUZZ durum in 2016....

[farmaholic]

Oh no, I sold all mine right after I read your post.

I just didn't want you thinking I'm as dumb as you think I am!
I hope there's upside yet! Might be time to offer my wheat at a healthy "premium" over current values....limited tonnes....limited time offer.

[farmaholic]

Store 5cwad durum with FUZZ....doubled in price from september 2016 to July 2018....

Yup, I did well storing 2016 durum til Nov 2017.

but But BUt BUT!!!!....I thought DON levels are "supposed" to, or can, continue to rise in fuzz infected stored grain!!!!!

[iceman]

From a low of $1.75 to $6.50 in 18 months. Easiest money ever. But remember it’s crap and just get rid of it?

[farmaholic]

From a low of $1.75 to $6.50 in 18 months. Easiest money ever. But remember it’s crap and just get rid of it?

"Kinda" feel sorry the guy who has no market power, or has given it all away.

[woodland]

Busy “marketing “ our 55lb tough feed wheat through our bovines as cow chow. 10,000 lbs a day of cheap grain turning into $1.80 yearlings is easy math for us especially with crazy hay prices. Last week finished selling all the hay we made this year and hopefully will have it all loaded out before Christmas.

Next week we’ll ultrasound the heifers to see who studied “sex ed “ with the bulls back in the summer. The ones that fail the preg test will be listed for sale along with the steers shortly after. Hopefully most of the 200 pass as we want to increase the herd. We may regret this in the spring if Mother Nature gets grumpy........ but hey that’s next years problem to worry about. 😉

Lastly to find a home for our 20-25% green seed canola........... probably going to wait till next spring when everyone else is done pushing theirs out the door.

Cool to see a marketing thread here for a change........even if some of it is dripping in sarcasm. 😎



Another 1,000 happy meals for an impatient crowd almost ready to be served.

[Oliver88]

I hope you guys realize my first post in this thread is dripping with sarcasm!

Good to know, I won't have to pull the trigger on Monday now.

You thinking $12 Canola in March-June time frame?

[farmaholic]

Good to know, I won't have to pull the trigger on Monday now.

You thinking $12 Canola in March-June time frame?

O88



Looks hopeful. Though I'm not sure about the timeframe, but the street price sure has a way to go. Rumblings of $11 dollar late 18/19 crop year offers, I'm not taking that this early, my emotionalðŸ˜marketing hopes my gut feeling is right..

Just don't know if there will be enough bearish news, old or new, to keep the futures suppressed that far out.

Twelve dollars for non specialty commodity canola seems to be the top price limit the last couple of years. It would be nice to see the market break that barrier, even if I don't get it.

StatsCan't(which I hate quoting) has 3 out of the 4 Western provinces with increased production totalling 1.46 million tonnes over the five year average, but the chart(101?) never seemed to flinch on the news(???????????)

Maybe 101 can post the "estimated" 18/19 production against what has already been moved into the system to see where we are for movement/disappearance.

[farmaholic]

101, care to comment on the shorts? Not my Bermuda shorts...

[sumdumguy]

bucket . . . if you are going to drag down an analyst on this forum, you should walk-the-walk and do exactly what you just said!

Greg is one of the best analysts in Canada.

“best analyst” is the guy who locks the bin in low prices and unloads at high prices. In 1986 we harvested 1200 acres of sprouted, frozen feed lentils worth 7 cents a pound. By July 18, 1987 those same lentils sold for 271/2 cents a lb. in 1994 Canaryseed soared to 50+ cents a pound due to market shorts. Some guys were lucky enough to capitalize on those runs. Anyone putting their faith in a guy with a briefcase and no skin in the game doesn’t have much faith in himself. Predicting the lentil market was impossible in 1980 when we were the market, and today’s market is monumemtaly more difficult. Today Russians and Ukrainians are phoning us to buy seed and sell their lentils. Weather was the marketmaker, now politics is taking front stage. Your head should be your analyst.

[ajl]

O88



Looks hopeful. Though I'm not sure about the timeframe, but the street price sure has a way to go. Rumblings of $11 dollar late 18/19 crop year offers, I'm not taking that this early, my emotionalðŸ˜marketing hopes my gut feeling is right..

Just don't know if there will be enough bearish news, old or new, to keep the futures suppressed that far out.

Twelve dollars for non specialty commodity canola seems to be the top price limit the last couple of years. It would be nice to see the market break that barrier, even if I don't get it.

StatsCan't(which I hate quoting) has 3 out of the 4 Western provinces with increased production totalling 1.46 million tonnes over the five year average, but the chart(101?) never seemed to flinch on the news(???????????)

Maybe 101 can post the "estimated" 18/19 production against what has already been moved into the system to see where we are for movement/disappearance.

Market has ignored Stats Can for years already as it knows Stats can knows nothing. One factor is that that there still is a fair bit of canola out in the field yet and that is a wild card. There is also green canola out there as well which needs to be blended of as many crops in the NW of Alberta did not mature.

[bucket]

Market has ignored Stats Can for years already as it knows Stats can knows nothing. One factor is that that there still is a fair bit of canola out in the field yet and that is a wild card. There is also green canola out there as well which needs to be blended of as many crops in the NW of Alberta did not mature.

What is your estimate for good sound canola that has to blend the poorer stuff off...

My guess...14.5mmt of sound canola 5.5mmt of poor for 20mmt production..

I think 12 bucks is easily in the cards with a sinking dollar....


IF EVERYONE QUITS FALLING FOR THOSE STUPID ****ING TARGETS MONTHS OUT....

it keeps their books full and the graincos never bid...

[farmaholic]

What is your estimate for good sound canola that has to blend the poorer stuff off...

My guess...14.5mmt of sound canola 5.5mmt of poor for 20mmt production..

I think 12 bucks is easily in the cards with a sinking dollar....


IF EVERYONE QUITS FALLING FOR THOSE STUPID ****ING TARGETS MONTHS OUT....

it keeps their books full and the graincos never bid...

My targets, of which I have none with GrainCos, are usually so far out of the money they would never get triggered....Soooo, I will blame everyone else's whose get picked up before my "mental"😲 target gets met.